Orioles sign Adam Frazier

[eddie83]

7 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Last winter Dombrowski put $60mm in 2022 salary on Schwarber, Castellanos, Knebel, Hand and Familia, acquiring 3 wins by B-Ref's guess as it played out.     Those and Kyle Gibson got them to 6th in their league by a thin margin.

 

The Orioles have a boat named “Adley and the Gunnar.”  It cost them only 1.5K but it is worth 100K. Going out and spending 8K more in hopes of getting more out of it is a waste of money because it’s more than what you paid for your boat. 
 

I wonder if the Orioles team payroll was around $100M, heck 80M if the conversation about cost is brought up so much. 

[Jammer7]

56 minutes ago, owknows said:

But we know even less about the other ones. And in order to make good trade decisions we NEED to know.

So how does it make sense to add another journeyman layer of mediocrity ahead of them, making it impossible to learn?

 

Prospects fail much more than they succeed. When you have them, you know them best if your coaching staff and scouts are as good as you think they are. When you play them to see if they can make those adjustments, and they fail, are they as valuable in trades as they were?  I don’t believe so. 

So, why add Frazier on a one year deal? Because prospects fail and injuries happen. They have made it clear they want to compete for playoff spots. They don’t have the resources to make huge elite multi-year purchases in the FA market. Frazier is a proven Major League player, a veteran who will have an impact on how the young guys are used, yes. But he will also provide more of the leadership to the young infielders. He will help them develop. He will make frequent contact and get on base in front of Adley, Gunnar, Mountcastle and Santander. He is a little more than insurance against the failure of Stowers, Vavra, Westburg, Ortiz and so on.

According to MASN article announcing his signing, “According to Statcast, he ranked in the top five percent of MLB in strikeout rate (12.1%) and whiff rate (14.4%).”

They want to win more games and keep improving. Frazier’s defense is considered above average as well. This is a big value to the development of young pitchers. If Vavra could play 2B at that level, I doubt Frazier would have been signed. They need a guy who reliably makes plays there. One who turns outs into outs.

Elias could have gone with the rookies only. He would have been criticized by the same posters who are criticizing this move for not picking up a veteran if the rookies struggle. You cannot please everyone. Some, you can never please. It would have been a defensible position for the reasons you stated. Elias and Hyde want a more proven commodity for now, and I think it has a lot to do with the defense helping the young pitchers get out of innings. You aren’t wrong, and neither are they. Two different ways of going about it. We’ll see who was right. 

[Slight Upward Arc]

I just wish Elias had a more competitive mindset and attitude about things. Listening to him speak is like getting a lecture from the six sigma consultant who designed the Amazon warehouse logistics and workflows. I respect his intelligence and analytical ways. Yet, this is a sport and a game and at a certain point, how can you just continue to get away with not even trying? He punted on 2022 (after intentionally losing 66% of our games 2019-2021). He’s essentially doing the same thing for 2023. And if the team underachieves in 2023, what’s to say he won’t punt on 2024 too? If the team finishes a game or two short in 2023, or even gets swept out of the first round, why wouldn’t that be his fault given his commentary and actions so far this off-season?

He reminds me of the bettor who will only place a bet if it’s a 99.9% likelihood of hitting, and then puts down $1,000 to win $50.
 

It’s a fallacy putting more faith in next years team would prohibit 2024-2027 in any way.  That just isn’t true at all. But clearly Elias and Angelos have some kind of financial arrangement. There don’t appear to be any actual expectations whatsoever outside of financial ones. If they just so happen to win one year, while being dirt cheap, so be it. But you can’t say anything to convince me at this point that winning is an actual goal. 

Edited December 17, 2022 by Slight Upward Arc

[Just Regular]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Imagine if Elias went out and got a real second baseman last offseason instead of Odor? What if we would have won 2 or 3 more games? 

That's more my second guess than this boring transaction.     The rest of the Orioles roster might have proved a sturdier tool than the rest of the Twins roster for getting Correa a 2022 dogpile attempt.    But last winter looking for pillows Boras also would have been looking at forecasts whose playoff odds were better, and Correa might have suffered another injury that would leave you on the hook for 70 or 105 million.

Roll back a year, if Gibson and Frazier were in place instead of Lyles and Odor, maybe BAL is closer to MIN when Boras makes that evaluation.

[owknows]

39 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Because they think adding Frazier can help the 2023 team. That’s why. Elias may be wrong. Perhaps he thinks some of the kids aren’t ready. Perhaps he thinks a deal may happen.

There seems to be a shortage of people who actually share that opinion.

As there was likewise with Brett Phillips, Aguilar and keeping Odor on the field after the all star break.

I don't think there are too many people who think these things made the team better..

 

[owknows]

5 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Prospects fail much more than they succeed. When you have them, you know them best if your coaching staff and scouts are as good as you think they are. When you play them to see if they can make those adjustments, and they fail, are they as valuable in trades as they were?  I don’t believe so. 

So, why add Frazier on a one year deal? Because prospects fail and injuries happen.

I think you could make the fair argument that Frazier qualifies as an example of the thing you're suggesting he's supposed to protect you against.

[Hank Scorpio]

Westburg and Stowers both had a lot of success at AAA. If we aren’t all in for the division this year (which we do not appear to be), why not let these guys get 400-500 major league at bats? See what you’ve got….

Further, why keep Stowers on the bench vs. lefties last year when he had more success against them than right handers for most of his minor league career, and while you had Hays out there playing hurt most of the second half? Didn’t make a heck of a lot of sense to me then.

Its very difficult to criticize this regime, as they have done an excellent job positioning the franchise for a nice long run of success. But it doesn’t mean they don’t occasionally do things that make you scratch your head.

[eddie83]

2 minutes ago, owknows said:

There seems to be a shortage of people who actually share that opinion.

As there was likewise with Brett Phillips, Aguilar and keeping Odor on the field after the all star break.

I don't think there are too many people who think these things made the team better..

 

That’s great. Everyone is entitled to it. I’m not telling anyone what to think. 

[Just Regular]

11 minutes ago, Slight Upward Arc said:

Listening to him speak is like getting a lecture from the six sigma consultant who designed the Amazon warehouse logistics and workflows.

I haven't had any luck googling to revisit the source, but I know I read an Elias biographical type piece at one point that had the detail at Yale he majored (or maybe minored) in Eastern philosophy.

So its probably even worse.     There's nothing but for Adley Rutschman to observe a river of 12000 pitches in 3000 PA over the next 5 years.     One day as Siddhartha did he will give away his $600mm in career earnings and sit by the placekickers group at the local high school.

Just gotta mix a little Rougned Odor in to help the kids know how to fight.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Hank Scorpio said:

Westburg and Stowers both had a lot of success at AAA. If we aren’t all in for the division this year (which we do not appear to be), why not let these guys get 400-500 major league at bats? See what you’ve got….

Further, why keep Stowers on the bench vs. lefties last year when he had more success against them than right handers for most of his minor league career, and while you had Hays out there playing hurt most of the second half? Didn’t make a heck of a lot of sense to me then.

 

I would love to give Elias and Hyde some truth serum and have them answer these questions.  

[Just Regular]

Here's the Statcast Arm Strength leaderboard from last year for 2B.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/arm-strength?type=player&year=2022&minThrows=100&pos=arm_2b&team=

Odor 4th of 70, MLB OAA leader Jonathan Schoop 8th of 70, Frazier 44th of 70, Seattle marginal upgrade Kolten Wong 70th of 70.

I think Clubs are forecasting the shift ban (and I think the depth limit on the dirt probably helps LH pull hitters who scald ground balls as much as the prohibition of a 3rd guy same side) to emphasize range and de-emphasize arm in the position requirements.

It does fit with a promising Schoop-sized 2B candidate in Westburg getting maybe de-prioritized.    But Joey Ortiz, if he's caught up to Westburg in overall value, could do that rangy 2B role well.

I wonder if the Frazier acquistion might lower the keep Jorge Mateo odds.     After Dansby signs, Mateo will represent an upgrade for a few Clubs, and maybe Elias moves to cash in the Club's winnings without worrying about how much of a terror on the basepaths he might be.     Because he can't get on base or control the strike zone.    SS Gunnar gives Westburg or the incumbent Gold Glover a year to watch where Coby Mayo gets put in the field.

 

[RZNJ]

25 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I would love to give Elias and Hyde some truth serum and have them answer these questions.  

Or we could wait?   Hard to believe we are going into the season with Henderson/Mateo/Frazier/Urias but I guess it's possible.

[Jammer7]

1 hour ago, owknows said:

I think you could make the fair argument that Frazier qualifies as an example of the thing you're suggesting he's supposed to protect you against.

You might be right. There is a case for him, which isn’t really that strong, and against him. Either might be right. Elias has the data and the video at his fingertips. He trusts his people to make these evaluations. No such thing as a bad one year contract, at least that is what GM’s are famous for saying.

Man, I don’t know what’s going to happen. But there is case both ways. If someone was expecting Xander Bogaerts to come here for $8 million, that’s delusional. But, if Adam Frazier can get back to doing what he did in 2019-2021, it might just pay off. I cannot see him playing 156 games again, like he did for the Mariners in their playoff run. Maybe 140 ish…

[wildcard]

5 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

We all agree that with the current roster on the face of it the move makes little sense. 

No we all do not agree with that.  Not if he is to platoon his Hays in the OF until Cowser is ready.

[wildcard]

5 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I don't think Elias is stupid or that he thinks he's smarter than everyone else, I just think he isn't particularly concerned with contending in 2023 for whatever reason. 

In spite of Elias repeatedly saying he think the O's will be a playoff team next season.