Orioles sign Adam Frazier

[Aristotelian]

11 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Or you and some others can not be so sensitive. Sad how fragile some people are nowadays. I'm trying to be nice here, but at some point, either accept that when you constantly support or attack Elias and you are a broken record one way or the other, you will get labelled. Apologists, Haters, whatever. 

If that bothers you so badly and you can't handle the group name, then perhaps this is not the place for you. I was about done with this, but now I am getting tired of the whining.

 

The "lol" was trying to indicate this is not a big deal to me. Not sure where you are getting sensitive or being bothered, it's all good. 

[RZNJ]

22 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Or you and some others can not be so sensitive. Sad how fragile some people are nowadays. I'm trying to be nice here, but at some point, either accept that when you constantly support or attack Elias and you are a broken record one way or the other, you will get labelled. Apologists, Haters, whatever. 

If that bothers you so badly and you can't handle the group name, then perhaps this is not the place for you. I was about done with this, but now I am getting tired of the whining.

 

Whining?  Did someone say whining?

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m not considering fantasyland, never going to happen outcomes. This isn’t Disney world.

If he’s a 3 WAR player I still won’t be happy.  I’ll be glad he did good but taking at bats away from the future isn’t a good thing. 
 

There is very little reason to think he’s going to be some really good bounce back candidate and I value the process in which the addition was made and this process was poor.

What if they trade a couple of our MI prospects or incumbents for pitching (thereby clearing room to test the other MI types), and Frazier has a good year?  For me, the “blocking the prospects” argument is the most important criticism of the Frazier acquisition, but it falls away if we make 1-2 MI trades that meaningfully upgrade the pitching.

[Sports Guy]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

What if they trade a couple of our MI prospects or incumbents for pitching (thereby clearing room to test the other MI types), and Frazier has a good year?  For me, the “blocking the prospects” argument is the most important criticism of the Frazier acquisition, but it falls away if we make 1-2 MI trades that meaningfully upgrade the pitching.

So that would mean Westburg AND Ortiz are dealt. Possible but unlikely. They have been talking about a LH second baseman for a while. This is what they wanted to get. It’s not like they have just decided on this because a deal is possible.

And btw, I do hate these types of arguments.  First of all, if Frazier was signed because a deal was happening, the deal would be done.  They aren’t likely signing a guy just to trade others unless they know it’s a done deal.

People said the same thing at the deadline, I believe with Phillips. That it meant that Mullins has to be on the move.

No it doesn’t. It’s just a depth move. 
 

 

[Tony-OH]

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

What if they trade a couple of our MI prospects or incumbents for pitching (thereby clearing room to test the other MI types), and Frazier has a good year?  For me, the “blocking the prospects” argument is the most important criticism of the Frazier acquisition, but it falls away if we make 1-2 MI trades that meaningfully upgrade the pitching.

Sorry Frobby, but you are either being stubborn here and or just continuing to play devil's advocate . I know you've seen the arguments statistically and statcast wise so no, blocking the prospects is not the most important criticism. It's about 3rd on the list.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

So that would mean Westburg AND Ortiz are dealt. Possible but unlikely. They have been talking about a LH second baseman for a while. This is what they wanted to get. It’s not like they have just decided on this because a deal is possible.

And btw, I do hate these types of arguments.  First of all, if Frazier was signed because a deal was happening, the deal would be done.  They aren’t likely signing a guy just to trade others unless they know it’s a done deal.

People said the same thing at the deadline, I believe with Phillips. That it meant that Mullins has to be on the move.

No it doesn’t. It’s just a depth move. 
 

 

At the end of the day, whether any prospects are dealt or not, Elias felt Frazier is the best choice to be playing second base or somewhere every day for the Orioles next year. 

That is the biggest issue of all. 

[Just Regular]

Meoli's newsletter had the detail Frazier only faced the shift in about 75 out of 600 PA last year - we've said already a few times here his results were better against the shift in 2022.

Here's what that got me wondering....why shift Adam Frazier ever?    If a lefty bat only sees it about 10% of PA, it might follow only the shiftiest teams used that strategy against him.     Could there be any skew if they were "dumb" overshifters for a spray singles hitter?

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Sorry Frobby, but you are either being stubborn here and or just continuing to play devil's advocate . I know you've seen the arguments statistically and statcast wise so no, blocking the prospects is not the most important criticism. It's about 3rd on the list.

It’s first on the list so far as I’m concerned.  My thoughts on Frazier are almost perfectly encapsulated in Dan Szymborski’s column on the topic.  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/baltimore-makes-a-microscopic-ripple-by-signing-adam-frazier/

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s first on the list so far as I’m concerned.  My thoughts on Frazier are almost perfectly encapsulated in Dan Szymborski’s column on the topic.  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/baltimore-makes-a-microscopic-ripple-by-signing-adam-frazier/

Where Szymborski and you are wrong is that Frazier is not a league average player and hasn't been outside of one half of baseball for three years. At 31 years old, and with slowing speed, it's doubtful he will "bounce back". 

We can all hope he bounces back, because honestly, hope is is all we really have with Frazier after looking at all the data. Personally, I wouldn't sign a guy when hope is our best indicator of future success.

[LookinUp]

12 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Or you and some others can not be so sensitive. Sad how fragile some people are nowadays.

I've been around for a long time, and this is definitely a "pot, meet kettle" type of argument.

[eddie83]

Yankees had a starting 9 of 

Gallo-Hicks-Judge

Donaldson-IKF-Torres-Rizzo

Trevino

Stanton 

Yet somehow LeMahieu was another starter. 
 

Later on added Benintendi who got hurt. 
 

Hicks had down year. Gallo struggled, was dealt. Stanton hurt a lot. Two young kids played a ton for them in September. 
 

Are the Yanks older, yes. That said you see contender after contender add players and still need more. Jays traded for Merrifield, etc. Espinal later on was hurt.

The situation will play itself out. They always do. 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

At the end of the day, whether any prospects are dealt or not, Elias felt Frazier is the best choice to be playing second base or somewhere every day for the Orioles next year. 

That is the biggest issue of all. 

I don’t disagree that this was a terrible decision and thought process but I will say that Frazier did have a good WAR run from 2018-2021. My issue is, so what? Everything is trending in the wrong direction, so who really cares. 
 

Blocking the younger players is a bigger issue to me.  That’s why I won’t like the deal.

[tabletop]

Is it at all possible that Westburg, Norby, Ortiz, etc. just aren't fully ready? They have coaches that they are with everyday, scouts in the organization, etc. that I would think speak with management about the players. We aren't there behind the scenes so we have no idea what the organization really thinks of these guys. Maybe they know something about Westburg, Ortiz, etc. that they're trying to fix before he gets to the majors and it gets exposed by major league pitching. Maybe they aren't in love with their defense (obviously not Ortiz). I remember when Jahmai Jones started off hot at AAA there was a lot of clamoring for him to be in Baltimore and Elias said something along the lines of he didn't want to call someone up until he knew they were ready and the last thing he wants is for someone they plan on being in Baltimore for a long time coming up and being sent back down. Well, Jones finally got the call and was pretty bad in Baltimore and is now out of the organization. Maybe he's just being extra cautious with these guys because of how that turned out. Rutschman was pretty bad at the plate for his first month before he finally broke out. Henderson started out great then cooled off. It's not like just because a guy did or didn't do good in AAA it means they can start on a winning team in the major leagues.

[eddie83]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Where Szymborski and you are wrong is that Frazier is not a league average player and hasn't been outside of one half of baseball for three years. At 31 years old, and with slowing speed, it's doubtful he will "bounce back". 

We can all hope he bounces back, because honestly, hope is is all we really have with Frazier after looking at all the data. Personally, I wouldn't sign a guy when hope is our best indicator of future success.

2018 rWAR 2.7

2019 2.5

2020 0.8 projected out in 162 about 2.3

2021 4.1

2022 0.9

[Sports Guy]

49 minutes ago, tabletop said:

Is it at all possible that Westburg, Norby, Ortiz, etc. just aren't fully ready? They have coaches that they are with everyday, scouts in the organization, etc. that I would think speak with management about the players. We aren't there behind the scenes so we have no idea what the organization really thinks of these guys. Maybe they know something about Westburg, Ortiz, etc. that they're trying to fix before he gets to the majors and it gets exposed by major league pitching. Maybe they aren't in love with their defense (obviously not Ortiz). I remember when Jahmai Jones started off hot at AAA there was a lot of clamoring for him to be in Baltimore and Elias said something along the lines of he didn't want to call someone up until he knew they were ready and the last thing he wants is for someone they plan on being in Baltimore for a long time coming up and being sent back down. Well, Jones finally got the call and was pretty bad in Baltimore and is now out of the organization. Maybe he's just being extra cautious with these guys because of how that turned out. Rutschman was pretty bad at the plate for his first month before he finally broke out. Henderson started out great then cooled off. It's not like just because a guy did or didn't do good in AAA it means they can start on a winning team in the major leagues.

Westburg is definitely ready.  Can debate the other 2.