Trade for Number 1

[G54377]

Perhaps Elias believes in our prospects enough that he thinks mid year or in one more year their value will top out for the TOR trade.

[MarCakes21]

3 hours ago, bpilktree said:

Elias has been great at finding guys that haven’t lived up to there hype but have improved here.  I don’t think they will go for a guy that is a number 1 starter now but a guy they think they can make a few changes and that will turn that potential into an ace.   Gerrit Cole was not a number 1 starter type when the Astros traded for him.  He was coming off a 12-12 season era 4.26 Fip of 4.08 Whip 1.28 giving up a hit an inning and striking out less then 1 an inning.  He came to Houston and the found way to dig into that potential he had coming up in minors.  
 
Who are the guys they think have been good major league pitchers but haven’t made that next step to being top of the rotation guys. That is who I think they will look to get in a trade if they get a starter.  That would be guys like Luzardo, Mike Soroko, Michael Kopech, Bradley Singer, Luis Garcia, Cristina Javier, Dustin May.  

I like many of those guys as options. I don’t think Singer is available quite yet, and Garcia, Javier and May are all pieces on very good teams.
 

I could see Luzardo, Kopech and Soroka being options to inquire on. Could we use two of our top 10 to get them or would we need more? Per BTV, Luzardo is worth 27 war, kopech 15 war and Soroka 1.3, though I’m sure he won’t be sold like that. 

 

[OriolesMagic83]

5 hours ago, G54377 said:

Perhaps Elias believes in our prospects enough that he thinks mid year or in one more year their value will top out for the TOR trade.

I think in large part this is what is holding off a major trade.  In a year Beavers and Fabian could be dominating in AA, Holliday could have finished putting up a .400 OBP at Aberdeen and had some promising at bats at AA, Westburg and Ortiz could have proven they can in the majors even if in limited at bats.  Hall could be a dominating reliever or even a promising young starter.  I think the farm could be at peak trade value between the trade deadline and spring 2024.  The number of excess prospects/rookie major leaguers could be quite impressive.  I'm sure some of them will fail.  Some of these guys could go from being the 3rd piece in a major trade to the main piece or at least the 2nd piece in a trade for an ace so many of us are talking about.

[MarCakes21]

5 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I think in large part this is what is holding off a major trade.  In a year Beavers and Fabian could be dominating in AA, Holliday could have finished putting up a .400 OBP at Aberdeen and had some promising at bats at AA, Westburg and Ortiz could have proven they can in the majors even if in limited at bats.  Hall could be a dominating reliever or even a promising young starter.  I think the farm could be at peak trade value between the trade deadline and spring 2024.  The number of excess prospects/rookie major leaguers could be quite impressive.  I'm sure some of them will fail.  Some of these guys could go from being the 3rd piece in a major trade to the main piece or at least the 2nd piece in a trade for an ace so many of us are talking about.

Thats my premise too.  Not sure we devalue guys like Ortiz/Westburg/Cowser by keeping them down assuming they still hit.  And flip at the deadline might make them all "closer" to ML ready

[HakunaSakata]

Nathan Ruiz has an article in the Baltimore Sun today about what it would take for the Orioles to trade for a top pitcher. Unfortunately it's behind a pay wall. Can anyone with a subscription fill us in on the highlights? 

https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-adam-frazier-infield-prospects-starting-pitcher-trade-20221219-z2nc463atfggvfrb4rtsrqsuru-story.html

[MarCakes21]

2 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

Nathan Ruiz has an article in the Baltimore Sun today about what it would take for the Orioles to trade for a top pitcher. Unfortunately it's behind a pay wall. Can anyone with a subscription fill us in on the highlights? 

https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-adam-frazier-infield-prospects-starting-pitcher-trade-20221219-z2nc463atfggvfrb4rtsrqsuru-story.html

Wasnt much in the article of value.  He might have read this thread because he mentioned Woodruff/Burnes/Bieber.

[HakunaSakata]

6 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

Wasnt much in the article of value.  He might have read this thread because he mentioned Woodruff/Burnes/Bieber.

I figured out a way to read it after I posted the link and thought the same thing. Not exactly a deep dive. 

[Roll Tide]

On 12/18/2022 at 9:12 AM, MarCakes21 said:

I know the merits of this have been discussed many times over, but there was a snippet in Roch's latest piece, and generally we've found Roch to be a good source:

Is a trade for a starting pitcher more likely than a free agent signing?
That type of deal seems like the only way to get a true No. 1 starter.

The Orioles would need to be willing to surrender some prospects or subtract from their projected 26-man roster. The former feels like a more likely scenario.

So three questions:

- Who are the available number 1s: Woodruff, Burnes, Bieber, Alcantra (unlikely), Gallen, Kelly - am I missing any?

- Can we trade for one of these guys without moving our top 3, ie a class headlines by 3 of: Westburg, Hall, Mayo, Cowser, Ortiz, Kjerstad, Basallo, Beavers

- Can we semi-affordably resign any of these guys before FA?

Well if Westburg is limited defensively maybe he’s a guy you move. 

[MarCakes21]

5 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Well if Westburg is limited defensively maybe he’s a guy you move. 

I agree with the Westburg thought, seems like a guy without a home.

I also think Mateo as the ML piece, and slide Gunnar to SS.  I'm likely more in the minority there, but seems like you have a good backup option in Ortiz if Gunnar can't play defense there, and Norby waiting for when Frazier has an OPS south of 600.

[HakunaSakata]

Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins acknowledged the Jays’ surplus today, calling the catching market “exceptionally strong” but also expressing he’d be comfortable carrying all three of his catchers into the 2023 season (Twitter links via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet). Moreover, Atkins suggested his focus is now shifting to improving the lineup — likely by adding a left-handed bat that could slot somewhere into the outfield mix. With many (but not all) of the top options on the free-agent market already picked over, it stands to reason the Jays could leverage their catching surplus to help address that need.

Would Stowers and a lower level prospect be enough to land Kirk if we agreed to take on a good chunk of Berrios' contract? I know we have Rutschman, but I love Kirk and he has incredible OBP skills. I think he probably profiles more a DH or 1B long term anyway. And even though he was terrible last season, Berrios potentially has #1 upside if he can figure things out again.  Thoughts? 

Alejandro Kirk 2022 Stats (24 yrs old)
470 ABs / 59 Runs / .285 AVG / 63 RBI / .372 OBP

Jose Berrios' Contract - $18.7 M annually through 2028