Eovaldi signed with Rangers per Moose

[Moose Milligan]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

That’s a lot of arrows!   I wouldn’t have given it more than 2, given Eovaldi’s health track record.   That said, Gibson alone is clearly not enough of an upgrade to our starting pitching.   

It's just more about the pure stuff and upside at this point, IMO.  

[DrinkinWithFermi]

26 minutes ago, LTO's said:

I guess I just don't understand your logic. So Gibson and Frazier's 2021 seasons were flukes but Perez and Heaney's 2022 seasons weren't? 

Gibson's 2021 was objectively an outlier. He has only ever posted an ERA+ over 100 three times in his 10 year MLB career.

He has more 5.00 ERA seasons than 100 ERA+ seasons.

[LTO's]

5 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Gibson's 2021 was objectively an outlier. 

It objectively isn't though. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

4 minutes ago, LTO's said:

It objectively isn't though. 

See

26 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

He has only ever posted an ERA+ over 100 three times in his 10 year MLB career.

He has more 5.00 ERA seasons than 100 ERA+ seasons.

 

[Roll Tide]

5 hours ago, Yardball85 said:

Maybe the Frazier signing for $8M made it so Eovaldi was out of their price range.  Laughably pathetic if the Orioles cannot afford $8M and $17M contracts, but also laughably pathetic insofar that Frazier was not nearly as necessary as someone like Eovaldi. 

I agree….The Baltimore Penny Pinchers! 

[Yardball85]

39 minutes ago, LTO's said:

It objectively isn't though. 

Gibson for Lyles is fine.  But does it actually upgrade the rotation, like Elias said they sought to do a few months ago?  I don't think so. 

[LTO's]

19 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

See

 

2021 - 3.0 fWAR

2014 - 2.7 fWAR

2015 - 2.8 fWAR

2018 - 2.6 fWAR

2019 - 2.6 fWAR

In two less seasons he's been worth 1.6 less fWAR than Nathan Eovaldi and has pitched 300 more innings. His Steamer projection is a 4.24 ERA. Eovaldi is at 3.99. He gets to pitch half his games at Camden Yards which was worth 2 runs a game for Lyles last year. It's been said before but outside of the very top (Verlander, deGrom, Rodon, maybe Bassit), none of these guys are really projected to be top of the rotation pitchers. And most of them have had a ton of health issues. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Just now, LTO's said:

2021 - 3.0 fWAR

2014 - 2.7 fWAR

2015 - 2.8 fWAR

2018 - 2.6 fWAR

2019 - 2.6 fWAR

In two less seasons he's been worth 1.6 less fWAR than Nathan Eovaldi and has pitched 300 more innings. His Steamer projection is a 4.24 ERA. Eovaldi is at 3.99. He gets to pitch half his games at Camden Yards which was worth 2 runs a game for Lyles last year. It's been said before but outside of the very top (Verlander, deGrom, Rodon, maybe Bassit), none of these guys are really projected to be top of the rotation pitchers. And most of them have had a ton of health issues. 

I don't care about fWAR (which claimed that Rougned Odor had positive value in 2022 btw) or Nathan Eovaldi. We are specificallly talking about Kyle Gibson and his 2021 performance relative to the rest of his career.

Gibson's 2021 was an outlier compared to the rest of his career. Objectively. Provably. Incontrovertibly.

His 3 highest ERA+'s are 106 in 2015, 118 in 2018, and 117 in 2021. In the other 7 years of his MLB career, he has posted a 94 or lower. That makes 2021 an objective outlier.

[Number5]

22 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I don't care about fWAR

By ignoring fWAR, which incorporates FIP into the calculation, you totally eliminate the effects of defense and park factors when comparing pitchers.  FIP and fWAR seems to me to be a more reasonable measure than ERA and rWAR when comparing pitchers from different teams because it attempts to account for fielding.  This makes it hard to take your claim of being objective seriously.  I really don't understand your over-the-top dislike of Gibson.  You have a habit of discounting his best seasons as "outliers", yet hang everything on Lyles' one good season in Baltimore to try to claim Lyles is better.    You are saying that we should pretend that Gibson's 3 best years never happened, yet assume that Lyles will continue to match his career best season (which was actually inferior per FIP and fWAR to Gibson's 2022, by the way).  Gibson's been a solid SP for a decade, and is superior to Lyles by any objective comparison.  Not close.  Good signing, IMO.  He's much more likely to turn in a performance as good as Lyles' 2022, or better, than Lyles is, IMO.  Glad we have him.  Does he alone move the needle?  Of course not.  With adding Grayson and Gibson, however, I do think our rotation looks better than last year.  If and when Means can come back and be as effective as he was previously, we'll look even better.

Eovaldi has a higher ceiling and lower floor, IMO.  Any pitcher can get hurt, but Eovaldi has a track record that makes injury concern even more of a factor in his case.  I wasn't really pining for the Orioles to sign him.  

Now, the guy I wanted was Rodon.  I think he may have made a real difference.  Seems like Elias may not have been budgeted enough money to sign a Rodon, and/or maybe Rodon just wanted to be a Yankee, as has been reported.  It may have taken a lot more than what the Yankees paid for the Orioles to sign him.  We don't know.  I do know that Boras came out and made some very positive comments about Elias' approach this off-season.  I suspect that perhaps the Orioles were in on Rodon in a bigger way than we know.  I certainly didn't expect the Orioles to be in on any of the 100 million + signings, so it is hard for me to get upset that we didn't.  

Other than Rodon, I've never felt that the key to the Orioles 2023 would be free agent signings.  The continued development and improvement of our young, up-and-coming potential star players will drive our 2023 results, as I see it.  That hasn't changed.

The additions of Gibson, Frazier, McCann, and Givens represent small improvements to the roster.  Certainly not game-changers, but not by any means the horrific detriments that you seem to be making them out to be, either.  I questioned the need for a FA 2B, so the Frazier signing surprised me, but I recognize that he's been a solid pro, has some versatility, and was not a massive overpay, as has been portrayed here by some.   It's a one-year deal, so the concern about blocking Westburg/Ortiz/Norby isn't really a major one.  I still don't quite get the why, but it's not worth getting upset over to me.  The need for a backup catcher was obvious, and we got about as good a one as we could have gotten, IMO, in McCann.  Good move there, and creatively done.  As discussed above, I'm good with the Gibson signing, and I'm also good with Givens.  Four solid pros.

I admire your passion, and you're welcome to your opinions, but maybe a more even-keeled look at the players, their statistics/projections, and what the team looks like with them would help ease your pain a little bit.  Misery is optional.

[LookinUp]

There are any number of justifications for the guys we've picked up so far, but the payroll is extremely low, the team has needs and there were real upgrades available in FA that would have helped fill those needs.

Maybe we make a trade. So what? Good ownership would do both.

Hopefully this means we're progressing toward a sale. That's the only silver lining, if it's even there.

[Sports Guy]

34 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

There are any number of justifications for the guys we've picked up so far, but the payroll is extremely low, the team has needs and there were real upgrades available in FA that would have helped fill those needs.

Maybe we make a trade. So what? Good ownership would do both.

Hopefully this means we're progressing toward a sale. That's the only silver lining, if it's even there.

It’s the only acceptable excuse for this debacle of an offseason.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

13 hours ago, Number5 said:

By ignoring fWAR, which incorporates FIP into the calculation, you totally eliminate the effects of defense and park factors when comparing pitchers.  FIP and fWAR seems to me to be a more reasonable measure than ERA and rWAR when comparing pitchers from different teams because it attempts to account for fielding

I was not making some blanket statement about fWAR's usefulness, it simply was not particularly relevant to what was being discussed. 

13 hours ago, Number5 said:

I really don't understand your over-the-top dislike of Gibson.  You have a habit of discounting his best seasons as "outliers", yet hang everything on Lyles' one good season in Baltimore to try to claim Lyles is better.

I have never once said that Lyles is better than Gibson, I have simply pointed out (correctly) that, on paper, replacing Lyles with Gibson is a lateral move, not an improvement. His 10 year career averages are almost identical to what Lyles produced in 2022. A team coming off 83 wins and aiming to contend should be improving, not making lateral moves that don't actually make the team better. The fact that he was Elias' top target as soon as free agency began is downright pathetic and speaks volumes about how serious he actually is about contending in 2023.

13 hours ago, Number5 said:

Gibson's been a solid SP for a decade

If by "solid," you mean "below average," then sure.

14 hours ago, Number5 said:

If and when Means can come back and be as effective as he was previously, we'll look even better.

Means should not be factored into our 2023 plans at all. 

14 hours ago, Number5 said:

Eovaldi has a higher ceiling and lower floor, IMO.  Any pitcher can get hurt, but Eovaldi has a track record that makes injury concern even more of a factor in his case.  I wasn't really pining for the Orioles to sign him.  

I didn't want him either. The guys we should have been going hard after were all gone by the time Eovaldi signed with Texas.

14 hours ago, Number5 said:

The additions of Gibson, Frazier, McCann, and Givens represent small improvements to the roster.  Certainly not game-changers, but not by any means the horrific detriments that you seem to be making them out to be, either. 

They don't move the needle at all, and, in Frazier's case, block players who potentially could move the needle (i.e. Westburg) in 2023. For a team that claims to be trying to reach the playoffs, they don't seem to be all that concerned with getting better in any meaningful way.

14 hours ago, Number5 said:

The need for a backup catcher was obvious, and we got about as good a one as we could have gotten, IMO, in McCann.  Good move there, and creatively done. 

I agree, that was a solid move.

14 hours ago, Number5 said:

I admire your passion, and you're welcome to your opinions, but maybe a more even-keeled look at the players, their statistics/projections, and what the team looks like with them would help ease your pain a little bit.  Misery is optional.

The Orioles look like a 4th or 5th place team right now, which is exactly what they looked like at the end of 2022, and it's difficult to see how that changes in any meaningful fashion at this point.

It didn't have to be this way but here we are.

 

[Number5]

1 hour ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I was not making some blanket statement about fWAR's usefulness, it simply was not particularly relevant to what was being discussed. 

15 hours ago, Number5 said:

It happens to be the most relevant stat to the discussion.  Again, any comparison of these pitchers without consideration of FIP is the opposite of being "objective."  I have understood all of your posts.  I simply disagree with you.   It is statistically erroneous to compare one player's career average to another player's best season.  It just is.  This error is compounded if important measures are intentionally overlooked.  Gibson's average season is actually superior to Lyles' 2022.  In fact, Gibson's "down year" of 2022 was superior to Lyles' 2022, per FIP/fWAR.  Gibson is a clear step up from Lyles.   Unfortunately, I think we all wanted 3 steps up from Lyles.  That doesn't mean we shouldn't acknowledge what Gibson is.

No one is saying the Gibson signing compares to the Yankees' signing Judge and Rodon.  The additions the Orioles have made are modest improvements to the roster.  That is clear by any objective comparison to the players they replaced.  I was trying to point out that the sky isn't falling.  If you prefer to be upset at other teams' signings and hate the moves Elias makes, go for it.  

[DrinkinWithFermi]

On 12/29/2022 at 11:55 AM, Number5 said:

It happens to be the most relevant stat to the discussion.  Again, any comparison of these pitchers without consideration of FIP is the opposite of being "objective."  I have understood all of your posts.  I simply disagree with you.   It is statistically erroneous to compare one player's career average to another player's best season.  It just is.  This error is compounded if important measures are intentionally overlooked.  Gibson's average season is actually superior to Lyles' 2022.  In fact, Gibson's "down year" of 2022 was superior to Lyles' 2022, per FIP/fWAR.  Gibson is a clear step up from Lyles.   Unfortunately, I think we all wanted 3 steps up from Lyles.  That doesn't mean we shouldn't acknowledge what Gibson is.

No one is saying the Gibson signing compares to the Yankees' signing Judge and Rodon.  The additions the Orioles have made are modest improvements to the roster.  That is clear by any objective comparison to the players they replaced.  I was trying to point out that the sky isn't falling.  If you prefer to be upset at other teams' signings and hate the moves Elias makes, go for it.  

Jordan Lyles' 2022:

179 IP, 4.42 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 91 ERA+, 4.40 FIP

Kyle Gibson's 162 game average for his 10 year career:

194 IP, 4.52 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 94 ERA+, 4.29 FIP

Looks pretty darn lateral to me.

[jabba72]

9 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Jordan Lyles' 2022:

179 IP, 4.42 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 91 ERA+, 4.40 FIP

Kyle Gibson's 162 game average for his 10 year career:

194 IP, 4.52 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 94 ERA+, 4.29 FIP

Looks pretty darn lateral to me.

And Lyles is several years younger. Gibson has had the better career by far though, including 2021 when he had a 3.87 FIP in 182 innings. 

Still it seems a bit risky to trust a 35 year old SP to pitch effectively 170-180 innings.