Braves lock up C Sean Murphy; Adley’s market value

[rudyrooster]

I'm betting that Adley is betting on himself.  Any offer the O's make to "buyout" some free-agent years would probably need to be "precedent setting". 

[spiritof66]

5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Both sides need to want to get a deal done.

Adley might be more willing than the O's for all we know.

I don't think Adley (or any other high-value young player) is likely to make a long-term commitment to the Orioles to remain with the team when he doesn't know who will own the team, how able and willing that ownership will be to spend on the team, and what kind of management (front-office and on-field) that team will have. The future is just too murky.

[OriolesMagic83]

6 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

But hey, it's not like they delayed his debut in the majors to game his service time and potentially cost him tens of millions.

The O's couldn't even do that right.  You tick off your prized rookie by trying to steal a year of control and then he has to finish 2nd in ROY and get it right back.

[HakunaSakata]

2 hours ago, rudyrooster said:

I'm betting that Adley is betting on himself.  Any offer the O's make to "buyout" some free-agent years would probably need to be "precedent setting". 

Well then it's a good thing we aren't wasting one of his contract years by not signing quality free agents to try and contend then. Oh wait...

[emmett16]

9 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Unless he doesn't want to get a deal done. I certainly wouldn't if I were him right now.

I like money, do you like money?

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I like money, do you like money?

I might be OK with less money now and more money later.

[emmett16]

I think players are inclined to stay with their original organization if given a fair offer.  There are a lot of unknowns going to a new org.  Now is the time to jump on it.  One more season of what he did last year and there is no chance IMO.  Give him a fair offer that would be hard to turn down.  Longer they wait, closer he gets to free agency, the more expensive he gets and less likely he stays. 10mm after taxes is a nice amount of money, but that is not life changing money.  You’re not jet setting around the world on vacations, starting philanthropic operations and taking care of your children/grandchildren.  That’s a nice nest egg to live off of if you have a very moderate no frills lifestyle.     

Edited December 30, 2022 by emmett16

[D&B]

22 hours ago, Frobby said:

News tonight that the Braves have locked up Sean Murphy for 6/$73 mm, covering his 3 Arb years ($4/9/15 mm) and three FA years at $15 mm each, plus a $15 mm club option for one additional year.  

Meanwhile, Willson Contreras signed a FA deal for 5/$87.5 mm deal that includes a $17.5 mm option for a 6th year with a $5 mm buyout.  

What ramifications does this have for Adley Rutschman?   Well, for sure they establish a floor.  I believe the $28 mm Murphy will make in his three Arb years is the second-highest ever for a catcher.  (Posey made $37 mm in Arb 1-3.).  Murphy’s a good catcher, worth 7.9 rWAR in just over 3 years of service.   Rutschman quite possibly will be worth double that in his first three years.   I think his Arb years are looking like $8/$13/$18 mm, and FA years at Realmuto’s $23 mm/yr or higher.  

So if we offered Adley 10/$160 mm, would he bite?

 

No offense, but at a minimum they should offer 10 yr 200M. That is how you treat a player with his talent, leadership skills, and work ethic. Also, if Gunnar continues on his current performance path in 2023 they should offer him a similar deal. Atlanta is the model for a medium market team. My hope is the team is soon sold to a serious owner who wants to win and let’s the experts run the team. Unfortunately, the ownership  will mess this up like they did with Manny.

[Sydnor]

33 minutes ago, D&B said:

No offense, but at a minimum they should offer 10 yr 200M. That is how you treat a player with his talent, leadership skills, and work ethic. Also, if Gunnar continues on his current performance path in 2023 they should offer him a similar deal. Atlanta is the model for a medium market team. My hope is the team is soon sold to a serious owner who wants to win and let’s the experts run the team. Unfortunately, the ownership  will mess this up like they did with Manny.

This is basically where I’m at with Adley. I don’t think there is a number of years or dollars where I would say “that’s a bad deal” or “I wouldn’t have done that.” I wouldn’t be worried about 8 years or 10 years or even 12 years. The end of the contract could be rough, but I would expect him to outperform whatever extension he would sign because I think he is going to produce an astronomical amount of wins on the front-end of the contract. I don’t expect an extension to happen because it’s too risky for this front office and ownership, but I wish it would because Adley is really everything you want in a player as you said.

[Aristotelian]

10 hours ago, emmett16 said:

I think players are inclined to stay with their original organization if given a fair offer.  There are a lot of unknowns going to a new org.  Now is the time to jump on it.  One more season of what he did last year and there is no chance IMO.  Give him a fair offer that would be hard to turn down.  Longer they wait, closer he gets to free agency, the more expensive he gets and less likely he stays. 10mm after taxes is a nice amount of money, but that is not life changing money.  You’re not jet setting around the world on vacations, starting philanthropic operations and taking care of your children/grandchildren.  That’s a nice nest egg to live off of if you have a very moderate no frills lifestyle.     

$10M is certainly life changing. You can at least set up yourself and a couple of generations of heirs to never have to worry about money again. I agree there are lots of things you can do with more zeroes. C being an injury prone position I can see the argument for accepting a team friendly deal to guarantee he goes from merely ultrarich to megarich.

[HakunaSakata]

Here's an interesting somewhat relevant article. https://www.mlb.com/news/earliest-contract-extensions-in-mlb-history-c269677352. I'm listing the more notable young contract signings in the last few years below. Essentially the Braves, White Sox, and more recently the Mariners are the teams that have been the most successful at locking up/extending their young players early in the last few years. I only mention this because the Astros only had one player listed in the article (Jon Singleton) and he was a complete bust. It makes me wonder if early contract extensions are part of Elias' strategy. 

Michael Harris (2022) - 8 years / $72M

Julio Rodriguez (2022) - 13 years / $210M

Wander Franco (2021) - 11 years / $182M

Ronald Acuna (2019) - 8 years / $100M

Ozzie Albies (2019) - 7 years / $35M

Luis Robert (2019) - 6 years / $60M 

Eloy Jimenez (2019) - 6 years / $43M

Brandon Lowe (2019) - 6 years / $24M

[emmett16]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

$10M is certainly life changing. You can at least set up yourself and a couple of generations of heirs to never have to worry about money again. I agree there are lots of things you can do with more zeroes. C being an injury prone position I can see the argument for accepting a team friendly deal to guarantee he goes from merely ultrarich to megarich.

He didn’t get 10mm though.  Probably close to 5.5 after taxes.  He has life expenses currently.  Does he like nice cars?  Dunno.  One or two frivolous spending decisions and that 5.5mm is gone.  He could comfortably live his life as he has the last few years, maybe one or two small trips a year, Toyota or ford, modest house, but my no means is that life changing or setting up your heirs.  The heirs will get ~half of what we is left.  So if he is super conservative, lives of the interest, and somehow maintains the 5.5MM amount, his children will see about 2.75 of that.  How much do you think 2.75MM will be worth in 50 years?  

[OriolesMagic83]

13 hours ago, emmett16 said:

I like money, do you like money?

Yes, but not as much as the Angelos family.

[OriolesMagic83]

Say in 5 years, Adley isn't signed by the O's and becomes a free agent, does anyone think the big market teams will blink at paying Adley $35 mill/yr if he is putting up 5-8 WAR seasons?  I think that's what he will put up if healthy and he realizes his potential.  If Cohen thinks he is an MVP level catcher shy of winning a World Series (or another one), will he say $35 mill/year is too much for a catcher?  Some of you guys worry too much about Angelos' money.  An owner interested in winning is going to make every attempt to sign Adley to a long term deal.

[tntoriole]

34 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

He didn’t get 10mm though.  Probably close to 5.5 after taxes.  He has life expenses currently.  Does he like nice cars?  Dunno.  One or two frivolous spending decisions and that 5.5mm is gone.  He could comfortably live his life as he has the last few years, maybe one or two small trips a year, Toyota or ford, modest house, but my no means is that life changing or setting up your heirs.  The heirs will get ~half of what we is left.  So if he is super conservative, lives of the interest, and somehow maintains the 5.5MM amount, his children will see about 2.75 of that.  How much do you think 2.75MM will be worth in 50 years?  

Probably a lot if he just put it in an index fund.   But come on .. that amount of money alone is far more than the vast majority of people ever make in their lifetime. 
And once players sign contracts.. their money is guaranteed.. if they can’t work for a year they get full salary.. if they can’t work for the length of their entire contract or they perform abysmally, they get paid. Chris Davis will make millions doing absolutely nothing till 2037. 
So let’s maintain a little perspective about poor Adley.. lol
Am I somehow supposed to worry about Adley’s heirs?   He comes from a very strong family background by all accounts, is a very grounded young man and he will do just fine even with only the 5.5 million lol