Start of Spring ZiPS

[btdart20]

1 minute ago, eddie83 said:

I will say I don’t think there will be a 100 win team in baseball this year.  

Agreed.  And if there is, I'd lean toward it happening in the NL and not the AL.

[eddie83]

2 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Agreed.  And if there is, I'd lean toward it happening in the NL and not the AL.

Agree as well. I think on paper the 7-12th best teams in AL are better than NL. On some levels I think you could just simplify it and say 7-15. What’s interesting is in both leagues the teams that made postseason (1-6) are strong favorites to repeat going back. History tells us that is unlikely. 
 

The Brewers are a solid (7) in the NL. I don’t know who the (7) team is in the AL. The NL I think is more top heavy though.
 

The Orioles win totals I posted in another thread are already creeping up. 

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I will say I don’t think there will be a 100 win team in baseball this year.  

On a quick look, since the teams started playing 162 games, some team has won 100+ games about 40% of the time in each league, and more like 50% of the time in the 21st Century.  So, without knowing anything more than that, I’d say the odds are better than 50/50 that some team in MLB will win 100+ games.  But, it’s possible that the competitive balance this year will be such that no team will do it.  

The new schedule could impact things several ways.   One the one hand, if there’s a terrible team in one division, the best team in that division won’t get as many chances to beat up on them.  On the other hand, in a division where every team is respectable, the teams won’t need to beat up on each other as much.   Also, the AL has dominated interleague play, and there will be way more interleague games this year (46 vs. 18).  If the AL continues to be dominant, that could boost a team’s chances at 100+ wins.  No guarantee the AL will be as dominant in 2023 as in some past years, though.  Last year the AL “only” played .507 ball against the NL, compared to .557 in 2021.   
 

[eddie83]

53 minutes ago, Frobby said:

On a quick look, since the teams started playing 162 games, some team has won 100+ games about 40% of the time in each league, and more like 50% of the time in the 21st Century.  So, without knowing anything more than that, I’d say the odds are better than 50/50 that some team in MLB will win 100+ games.  But, it’s possible that the competitive balance this year will be such that no team will do it.  

The new schedule could impact things several ways.   One the one hand, if there’s a terrible team in one division, the best team in that division won’t get as many chances to beat up on them.  On the other hand, in a division where every team is respectable, the teams won’t need to beat up on each other as much.   Also, the AL has dominated interleague play, and there will be way more interleague games this year (46 vs. 18).  If the AL continues to be dominant, that could boost a team’s chances at 100+ wins.  No guarantee the AL will be as dominant in 2023 as in some past years, though.  Last year the AL “only” played .507 ball against the NL, compared to .557 in 2021.   
 

The interleague portion will be interesting to follow. Basically swapped division games for interleague. 
 

Houston will still be good but I think take a small step back. The Yankees I still think played over their hands some last year. They missed 100 by one game. Their poor second half was a market correction of some point. Braves/Mets have 6 less games vs Nats. Dodgers will still be good but not as dominant. 
 

Funny thing is like I said earlier the 12 playoff teams from last year are playoff favorites once again but I think the middle tier should be better. 

[TommyPickles]

On 2/9/2023 at 10:48 AM, Frobby said:

Again, it is almost certain not to happen that way.  These are “average” results from playing a hypothetical season 1,000,000 times.   In real life, some teams will exceed their “average” projections by significant amounts. others will fall short of them.  As I mentioned the other day, no team in the AL is projected to win more than 90 games, but the lowest win total ever to lead the AL is 95.   It’s very likely that it will take 95+ wins to lead the AL this year, we just don’t know for sure which teams will do it.  

That's interesting. I didn't realize that.

Honestly, I kind of wish it wasn't this way. I'd rather see a "this is our computer's best guess of what will happen" rather than "this is the average of what our computer thinks could happen."

Not that it really matters, I guess.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

That's interesting. I didn't realize that.

Honestly, I kind of wish it wasn't this way. I'd rather see a "this is our computer's best guess of what will happen" rather than "this is the average of what our computer thinks could happen."

Not that it really matters, I guess.

I guess you can judge whether the team got an above average result.  

Honestly, projection systems in baseball are pretty close to useless.  I love looking at them, but the standard deviations are so wide that they don’t really tell you anything.  Take Mateo: his 50th percentile OPS+ projection is 83, but there’s a 20% chance it will be 103 or higher and a 20% chance it will be 67 or lower.   Then multiply that uncertainty by the 26 guys on the OD roster, factor in injuries, and guess what moves will be made during the season, etc.  
 

[Frobby]

From today’s piece on the projected NL standings:

“Over the last decade, ZiPS has averaged 19.9 correct teams when looking at Vegas preseason over/under lines.”

That’s a pretty good track record.   

[OriolesMagic83]

On 2/9/2023 at 10:24 AM, TommyPickles said:

I think 28% chance of a playoff birth sounds about right. I'm a little more hopeful, but that's my orange colored glasses.

What doesn't sound right is all five teams in the AL East being within 9-10 wins of each other at the end of the season. I don't see it.

I think someone is going to win more than 89 games. I don't think Boston is going to win 79 games.

The only way I see that happening is a lot went wrong for Tampa and New York and a lot went right for Baltimore and Boston.  Has a division ever had all 5 teams above .500?  I believe there were a few times last year when it happened during the season.

[OriolesMagic83]

On 2/9/2023 at 11:04 AM, eddie83 said:

Agree as well. I think on paper the 7-12th best teams in AL are better than NL. On some levels I think you could just simplify it and say 7-15. What’s interesting is in both leagues the teams that made postseason (1-6) are strong favorites to repeat going back. History tells us that is unlikely. 
 

The Brewers are a solid (7) in the NL. I don’t know who the (7) team is in the AL. The NL I think is more top heavy though.
 

The Orioles win totals I posted in another thread are already creeping up. 

I would take the top 6 teams in the NL over the top 6 teams in the AL.  I feel like on paper, the Astros and Yankees are still the best AL teams, but there are 5 NL teams that can go head to head with them (Mets, Braves, Phillies, LA, and SD).  Could even add St Louis maybe.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I would take the top 6 teams in the NL over the top 6 teams in the AL.  I feel like on paper, the Astros and Yankees are still the best AL teams, but there are 5 NL teams that can go head to head with them (Mets, Braves, Phillies, LA, and SD).  Could even add St Louis maybe.

I don't group the Phillies in with the rest of that group.

[Can_of_corn]

Mid-season update.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-zips-midseason-standings-update/

Needless to say it's much rosier overall.

[DirtyBird]

24 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Mid-season update.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-zips-midseason-standings-update/

Needless to say it's much rosier overall.

That would be a disappointing record

[24fps]

The O's are currently on a 99-win pace (95 if you use pythag).  92 wins would require 37-35 the rest of way which is certainly plausible.  I think it could be a little conservative, but only by a game or two.

[Can_of_corn]

17 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

That would be a disappointing record

I love it.  27.9% to win the division, 89.3% to make the playoffs and your take is "disappointing record".

[DirtyBird]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I love it.  27.9% to win the division, 89.3% to make the playoffs and your take is "disappointing record".

2 games over .500 for the rest of the season would be disappointing