Grayson Rodriguez Expectations

[MarCakes21]

2 minutes ago, Big Mac said:

On the flip side, given his innings limits and how it seems like pitchers haven't fared well in ROY recently, they may not view the likelihood of him finishing in top 2 of ROY to be that high.  

SG just mentioned Kirby's year last year and he finished a distant 6th in ROY voting. 

This is where I am, from a top tier impact perspective, it's much more likely ROY goes to a hitter.  Last SP was 2016, and then 2011.  

I think we keep him down for service time and tell everyone we're managing his innings for the playoff run while ramping him up.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, MarCakes21 said:

This is where I am, from a top tier impact perspective, it's much more likely ROY goes to a hitter.  Last SP was 2016, and then 2011.  

I think we keep him down for service time and tell everyone we're managing his innings for the playoff run while ramping him up.

A starting pitcher won in 2018. 

[btdart20]

15 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

We can't hit on all these guys, they're not all going to be good players. 

It's really hard to argue against history and trends.  But underlying suppositions do change so that results can be improved.  So I don't disagree, but I also wonder if how our inputs differ than those that set the historic trends?  How are our individual prospects different than history?  Is it possible for us to hit on more than historic norms?  

I just posted this elsewhere, but think it fits here too...

Two Thousand More Words About the Cole Irvin Trade | FanGraphs Baseball

data has helped teams streamline their operations. Now a pitching coach can target, say, a type of slider they’ve had success improving in the past, or identify pitchers who they think would benefit from a cutter formulaically.

How does our 'type' of player we draft 'fit' our coaching/development process differ from how it's been done in the past?  And does that difference move the needle of success?

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

 Is it possible for us to hit on more than historic norms?  

 

I don't know, maybe. 

But on the flip side of the negative coin and to make @HakunaSakatahappy with a glass half full take...

 

...we're ****ing due.  

[btdart20]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't know, maybe. 

But on the flip side of the negative coin and to make @HakunaSakatahappy with a glass half full take...

 

...we're ****ing due.  

 True!  

BTW, my comment wasn't really directed at you specifically.  Just throwing the idea out there and used your comment as a jumping off point.  Improvement/progress is the goal.  And it's good to see that we're taking steps in the right direction.  Is it a fluke?  Or sustainable?   

[wildcard]

Adley, the defense, Holt and the Wall seem to say he will do well but the two infielders on each side of second and the limit on throws to first say the ERAs will be higher.  

Play the games and lets find out.

Edited February 9, 2023 by wildcard

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

 True!  

BTW, my comment wasn't really directed at you specifically.  Just throwing the idea out there and used your comment as a jumping off point.  Improvement/progress is the goal.  And it's good to see that we're taking steps in the right direction.  Is it a fluke?  Or sustainable?   

I know it wasn't and that's ok.

The article you posted, while rambling (the writer even admits to it in the end) is good and the notion of targeting guys that they think they can improve is a good one.  I'm sure there are certain things that Irvin does that the Orioles felt that they could improve upon.

 

[MarCakes21]

35 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

A starting pitcher won in 2018. 

A DH with many years of professional experience won in 2018

[catjuggler]

4 hours ago, VICIOUS said:

12-3,   3.5ish era, Allstar

Is he going to strike out mini-Ditka, too?

 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, HakunaSakata said:

I did. I actually had a hard time finding the latter. 

Here’s one place where you can find it: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=p&lg=MLB&year=2022. (Click on “show pitching role.”)

[Hank Scorpio]

48 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't know, maybe. 

But on the flip side of the negative coin and to make @HakunaSakatahappy with a glass half full take...

 

...we're ****ing due.  

Lord, are we.

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, joelala said:

I like Bradish to be a solid #3 or really good 4 and Kremer to be a serviceable number 5. Grayson has never gone deep into games and this makes me think his stuff doesn’t hold up. If he can only go 4 or 5 innings he won’t be an ace, which is what I’m hoping, ergo I will be disappointed. 
 

And I agree with Moose too that there’s a strong chance he ‘needs a bit more seasoning’ in AAA before debuting. 

While you are right Grayson has never gone deep into games, your conclusion as to why is not correct. Grayson has been babied by the organization like they do with most of their pitching prospects. His stuff has been just fine into the 80s and while I don't have his innings breakdowns, I know I saw many games he was dominating in the 5th or 6th innings but was taken out due his 90 pitch count.

His stuff is just fine late in his appearances and he'll hold his velocity as well, so I don't see that as an issue at all.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

George Kirby, a highly ranked prospect (not as high as Grayson) was a rookie last year.

He had 25 starts and threw 130 ML innings. He had a 3.39 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 9.2 K rate, 1.5 BB rate and a .9 HR rate.

I would be ecstatic if Grayson was able to pull that off.

Kirby is a pretty good measure for what I expect Rodriguez to do if he's healthy and allowed to pitch. he will be the same age as Kirby this year and Kirby threw 156.2 innings last year between AAA and the majors after getting just 67.2 the year before. 

I'm hoping the Orioles allow Rodriguez to do that. Now, Rodriguez pitches in a tougher Division and doesn't pitch half his games in Safeco field, but now Camden is a pitcher's park for the most park.

I would be disappointed if Rodriguez doesn't pitch like that out of the gate. He's that kind of talent.

[Just Regular]

Every league he's entered, after about 8 starts he's had the best K-BB% in his league, often by far.

I just want to see 8 starts, and how the repertoire plays against MLB Bats.

Even with a 150 IP cap in the rosiest scenario, I think Rodriguez's Cy Young chances are better than Gunnar's MVP chances.    Not Adley's, though.

The burden of proof is on the rookie, but I would not "sign up in blood" for '23 Rodriguez to be '22 Kirby, even if that outcome is probably better than his mid-case.    I have some hopes that inside a couple months - the idea George Kirby could be as good as him is the unlikely one.

[joelala]

17 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

While you are right Grayson has never gone deep into games, your conclusion as to why is not correct. Grayson has been babied by the organization like they do with most of their pitching prospects. His stuff has been just fine into the 80s and while I don't have his innings breakdowns, I know I saw many games he was dominating in the 5th or 6th innings but was taken out due his 90 pitch count.

His stuff is just fine late in his appearances and he'll hold his velocity as well, so I don't see that as an issue at all.

Thanks. Hope that is indeed the case that he holds velocity and location. I would need to look but it also concerns me a bit that he’s at 90 pitches after the fifth so frequently. I’m jaded, yes.