Adam Frazier 2023

[Pickles]

Just now, owknows said:

If you have to ignore the majority of what I posted to focus on the one mention of RISP... you have no argument at all.

Well, then if it's inapplicable, why bring it up in the first place?

RISP numbers have widely been shown to be pure statistical noise.  Furthermore, you're talking about a sample of like what? 25 at bats?

Frazier has been our second most valuable and most consistent infielder.  And we are the second best team in baseball.  That's my argument.  Not only do I have one, I have an unassailable one.

[DirtyBird]

3 minutes ago, owknows said:

If you have to ignore the majority of what I posted to focus on the one mention of RISP... you have no argument at all.

You only mentioned OPS by month and RISP

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Even if Westburg can outperform Frazier, he should be taking ABs from Henderson and Mountcastle.  Because guess what?  They can't.

But he wouldn’t be there for that role. 
 

I will say this. I agree with the thought that Frazier has outperformed many of the players on the team.

I said he could/should be a 1.5-2 WAR player. Now, I will say that I felt his offense would be worse and the defense better. I’m not surprised at the overall production even if it is coming in a different way so far.

That being said, this team isn’t winning because of Frazier. Honestly, this offense is being carried by 3 guys, consistently, all year..Adley, Hays and Mullins. 
 

Mateo was hot early, Mounty has had his moments, Santander if playing well for a lot of this month and yes,Frazier has had his moments, ala Odor last year but unlikely Odor, he is not an out machine.

But this team is winning is because of the pen. The reality is WAR isn’t doing enough justice to the pen. Cano leads the Os in rWAR and that number is too low.  

Im not sure where things stand right now but the offense was below average in May when I looked last week. The offense was very good in April but it’s that bullpen. 

[owknows]

Just now, Pickles said:

Well, then if it's inapplicable, why bring it up in the first place?

RISP numbers have widely been shown to be pure statistical noise.  Furthermore, you're talking about a sample of like what? 25 at bats?

Frazier has been our second most valuable and most consistent infielder.  And we are the second best team in baseball.  That's my argument.  Not only do I have one, I have an unassailable one.

I didn't say it was inapplicable. You did.

I simply said it was a small subset of a much larger data set.

Which objectively doesn't support your point.

He sucked with the bat in March/April. (matching the performance of his previous 1100 AB's)

He's had a hot few weeks in May. (significantly deviating from his most recent 1100 AB's)

You want me to accept a few hot weeks as indicative of his performance in general.

I will accept them as indicative of a few hot weeks, which I hope he continues.

Your argument is kinda silly.

 

 

[owknows]

6 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

You only mentioned OPS by month and RISP

You figure that out by yourself?

[Pickles]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But he wouldn’t be there for that role. 
 

I will say this. I agree with the thought that Frazier has outperformed many of the players on the team.

I said he could/should be a 1.5-2 WAR player. Now, I will say that I felt his offense would be worse and the defense better. I’m not surprised at the overall production even if it is coming in a different way so far.

That being said, this team isn’t winning because of Frazier. Honestly, this offense is being carried by 3 guys, consistently, all year..Adley, Hays and Mullins. 
 

Mateo was hot early, Mounty has had his moments, Santander if playing well for a lot of this month and yes,Frazier has had his moments, ala Odor last year but unlikely Odor, he is not an out machine.

But this team is winning is because of the pen. The reality is WAR isn’t doing enough justice to the pen. Cano leads the Os in rWAR and that number is too low.  

Im not sure where things stand right now but the offense was below average in May when I looked last week. The offense was very good in April but it’s that bullpen. 

Well, yeah, the bullpen has been a hell of a lot more important than Frazier. 

There's no reason Westburg, or Ortiz, because frankly he's going to get the at-bats first, shouldn't be taking them away from Henderson, and from Mountcastle- though that doesn't mean in Ortiz' case, but it could/should in in Westburg's.

And I'll say this: I didn't agree with the Frazier signing, like virtually everybody here.  I was simply willing to look at it objectively and say, "You know, they probably had a reason for doing this."

Well, now we're all seeing the reason.

[Chavez Ravine]

This reminds me of the Jonathan Villar discussions. He is a useful MLB player; how much you give up in a trade for him or use him instead of some prospect is open to endless debate.

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, owknows said:

I didn't say it was inapplicable. You did.

I simply said it was a small subset of a much larger data set.

Which objectively doesn't support your point.

He sucked with the bat in March/April. (matching the performance of his previous 1100 AB's)

He's had a hot few weeks in May. (significantly deviating from his most recent 1100 AB's)

You want me to accept a few hot weeks as indicative of his performance in general.

I will accept them as indicative of a few hot weeks, which I hope he continues.

Your argument is kinda silly.

 

 

So I agree with what you are saying..most people on this site go completely overboard with these small sample sizes.

That said, Frazier has not been a black hole that many felt he would be. He could be cut tomorrow and I think we would be fine but that doesn’t mean he’s a bad player.

I can’t say enough about the quality of a lot of his at bats and his contact. Even if he doesn’t get a hit, there is value there. It’s not 8M worth of value and he shouldn’t be here but he is here and since he is here, we should utilize his strengths.

I don’t think he’s that good overall but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have strengths and things that can help us.

I feel like Tony said it well a week or so ago..if we had signed Frazier for 3M and he was in the Vavra role, we would all be happy with him here. I think that sums up things very well.

Edited May 22, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

Well, yeah, the bullpen has been a hell of a lot more important than Frazier. 

There's no reason Westburg, or Ortiz, because frankly he's going to get the at-bats first, shouldn't be taking them away from Henderson, and from Mountcastle- though that doesn't mean in Ortiz' case, but it could/should in in Westburg's.

And I'll say this: I didn't agree with the Frazier signing, like virtually everybody here.  I was simply willing to look at it objectively and say, "You know, they probably had a reason for doing this."

Well, now we're all seeing the reason.

I’m all for Henderson losing SOME at bats to lefties, that’s it.

I have been saying for a while I would take at bats away from Mounty and others, so you won’t get that argument from me.

I think there are plenty of at bats for the young kids, as I have said a lot.

 

[owknows]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

So I agree with what you are saying..most people on this site go completely overboard with these small sample sizes.

That said, Frazier has not be a black hole that many felt he would be. He could be cut tomorrow and I think we would be fine but that doesn’t mean he’s a bad player.

I can’t say enough about the quality of a lot of his at bats and his contact. Even if he doesn’t get a hit, there is value there. It’s not 8M worth of value and he shouldn’t be here but he is here and since he is here, we should utilize his strengths.

I don’t think he’s that good overall but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have strengths and things that can help us.

I feel like Tony said it well a week or so ago..if we had signed Frazier for 3M and he was in the Vavra role, we would all be happy with him here. I think that sums up things very well.

I don't think he's a bad player at all.

I think he's a journeyman level ML ballplayer.

Maybe just a tick below replacement level.

I love the fact that he's on a tear, and performing well above his career norms. And I hope it continues.

But in reality... that has been happening for only a few weeks.

My beef has nothing to do with Frazier.

It has to do with what signing Frazier (and not trading Mateo or Urias) is going to do to our farm system. The one we suffered a 5 year drought to build into a powerhouse. It really isn't that hard to see the beginning of the pileup... and if they don't deal with it... it's going to needlessly cost us some good players that we endured a hellish rebuild to stock up.

 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, owknows said:

I don't think he's a bad player at all.

I think he's a journeyman level ML ballplayer.

Maybe just a tick below replacement level.

I love the fact that he's on a tear, and performing well above his career norms. And I hope it continues.

But in reality... that has been happening for only a few weeks.

My beef has nothing to do with Frazier.

It has to do with what signing Frazier (and not trading Mateo or Urias) is going to do to our farm system. The one we suffered a 5 year drought to build into a powerhouse. It really isn't that hard to see the beginning of the pileup... and if they don't deal with it... it's going to needlessly cost us some good players that we endured a hellish rebuild to stock up.

 

Yea there is no doubt about this..this is why I have said the whole time that his performance doesn’t mean as much to me in terms of rating if it was a good deal or not. 
 

 

[Pickles]

5 minutes ago, owknows said:

I didn't say it was inapplicable. You did.

I simply said it was a small subset of a much larger data set.

Which objectively doesn't support your point.

He sucked with the bat in March/April. (matching the performance of his previous 1100 AB's)

He's had a hot few weeks in May. (significantly deviating from his most recent 1100 AB's)

You want me to accept a few hot weeks as indicative of his performance in general.

I will accept them as indicative of a few hot weeks, which I hope he continues.

Your argument is kinda silly.

 

 

So it's silly to believe that Frazier has been our second most valuable and most consistent infielder?

[Pickles]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m all for Henderson losing SOME at bats to lefties, that’s it.

I have been saying for a while I would take at bats away from Mounty and others, so you won’t get that argument from me.

I think there are plenty of at bats for the young kids, as I have said a lot.

 

I think there's a role for one of either Ortiz or Westburg as the team stands now.

People I would take ABs from:

Mountcastle; Henderson; and Mateo

That's where one of those guys should see some ABs.

 

[Sydnor]

28 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But he wouldn’t be there for that role. 
 

I will say this. I agree with the thought that Frazier has outperformed many of the players on the team.

I said he could/should be a 1.5-2 WAR player. Now, I will say that I felt his offense would be worse and the defense better. I’m not surprised at the overall production even if it is coming in a different way so far.

That being said, this team isn’t winning because of Frazier. Honestly, this offense is being carried by 3 guys, consistently, all year..Adley, Hays and Mullins. 
 

Mateo was hot early, Mounty has had his moments, Santander if playing well for a lot of this month and yes,Frazier has had his moments, ala Odor last year but unlikely Odor, he is not an out machine.

But this team is winning is because of the pen. The reality is WAR isn’t doing enough justice to the pen. Cano leads the Os in rWAR and that number is too low.  

Im not sure where things stand right now but the offense was below average in May when I looked last week. The offense was very good in April but it’s that bullpen. 

Hays has a .691 OPS and 91 WRC+ in May.  I’m with you on Adley and Mullins, not Hays. The beauty of this lineup (thus far) is that they have managed to get contributions from different guys at different times (as noted in your post).

[forphase1]

45 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Yeah, but the burden of proof isn't on my position.

Frazier's already here and performing well.

Westburg is hypothetically able to do that.  And there's plenty of evidence to suggest it wouldn't be seamless at least.

Furthermore, that still isn't an argument against Frazier, because Frazier has been our second best and most consistent infielder this year.  If Westburg is up here taking anybody's playing time it should probably be Henderson's and Mountcastle's tbh.

This team is better because Frazier is on it.  Simple as.

Eh, the burden of proof isn't on either of our positions because neither of us can really prove anything.  Unless/until Westburg replaces Frazier in the lineup to show what he can or can't do none of us know how he could perform.

I know Frazier is here and I know he's performing.  But that isn't the point or the question.  The point and question is could Westburg match that or exceed it?  And we have NO WAY of KNOWING the answer to that question.  You can claim there is plenty of evidence to suggest it wouldn't be seamless, yet we have seen at times rookies excel quickly and that the learning curve is a small one.  It varies greatly by situation to situation and player by player.  

You can claim the team is better because Frazier is on it, and you aren't wrong.  In comparison to the Odor mistake, Frazier is a breathe of fresh air.  But would the team be even better if Westburg was taking the Frazier at bats?  That we don't know.  It would depend on which of us is right about how Westburg would perform.  The team MAY be better with Frazier off of it and replaced by Westburg.  Simple as that.