Anthony Santander 2023

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

He was in the group of death with DR & PR and then played USA.  I think he’s in a funk and has some nagging injuries.  
 

the 16 pitch AB had to be one of the longest (time-wise) in MLB history.  Salvy coming out, new C getting banged around, and then pitches.  Crazy.  
 

Hoping he breaks out soon - would be a boon for the team. 

21.

[Frobby]

Two huge bombs for Santander tonight, including a grand salami.  He’s actually been hitting for two and a half weeks now, but today out the exclamation point  on it.  Let’s hope he can stay on a roll.  

 

[LA2]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

Two huge bombs for Santander tonight, including a grand salami.  He’s actually been hitting for two and a half weeks now, but today out the exclamation point  on it.  Let’s hope he can stay on a roll.  

 

I wd by no means turn down more grand salami on a roll. (Fried forgot to apply some mustard!)

[ShoelesJoe]

Hopefully he can have a few more big games this week against the Braves and Rays. There's a national spotlight on these contests, and if Santander looks good against these elite pitchers it will boost his trade value much more than pounding the likes of Oakland, Detroit, and KC. 

[Jagwar]

I said this in the game thread... This is a totally different offense when Santander is producing.  

[interloper]

7 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

I said this in the game thread... This is a totally different offense when Santander is producing.  

Yep!

Adley and Gunnar walking, Santander and Mounty hitting bombs, Ced and Urias doing their thing, Mateo causing havoc.... It's a pretty fun offense!

Edited May 6, 2023 by interloper

[Frobby]

With yesterday’s barrage, Santander is basically right in the zone of his career norms.

Career: .245/.301/.454, 105 OPS+

2022: .240/.318/.455, 118 OPS+

2023: .248/.307/.451, 109 OPS+
 

 

[Bemorewins]

4 hours ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Hopefully he can have a few more big games this week against the Braves and Rays. There's a national spotlight on these contests, and if Santander looks good against these elite pitchers it will boost his trade value much more than pounding the likes of Oakland, Detroit, and KC. 

Why would we be anxious to trade him in season? Don't we need him to contribute to the middle of the order so that we can be the best team that we can be? 

Having said that, I would love for Coswer to come up and displace him in the outfield so that he can move to DH and we no longer need this silly 3 catcher situation or to have McCann be an everyday player against left handers.

But I hate the idea of trading good players in season to make your team worse. That was fine for last year. But this year not so much. We don't have anybody who can replace him and give us 30+ homers this season like he can. 

Every young player that comes up will take time to adjust (like Gunnar and Grayson are doing and like Adley did). And we don't need to place the immediate pressure of them by batting them in the middle of the order and asking them to produce like Santander.

[btdart20]

6 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Why would we be anxious to trade him in season? Don't we need him to contribute to the middle of the order so that we can be the best team that we can be? 

Why?  Org building for a perennial contender vs window dressing. 

How long does the FB 50-60 type prospect take to adjust to the ML?  Could the replacement be up a running by year-end?  Could it be Gunnar, Cowser, and some combo of Ortiz/Westburg?  Or even Kjerstad?  Unless you have projectable “answers” to that then I think anything is possible.

[Bemorewins]

13 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Why?  Org building for a perennial contender vs window dressing. 

How long does the FB 50-60 type prospect take to adjust to the ML?  Could the replacement be up a running by year-end?  Could it be Gunnar, Cowser, and some combo of Ortiz/Westburg?  Or even Kjerstad?  Unless you have projectable “answers” to that then I think anything is possible.

Org building in what way? I hate to damper the mode for the people who love to live in the future…. But the winning has already started. It’s here now! 

I believe that the plan is to have Kjerstad eventually take over for him as a middle of the order hitter. But right now he is in AA raking. 

None of the names mentioned are going to produce like Santander this season. What’s the rush to get him off the team? He can be moved or non-tendered in the offseason.

I just don’t see him having that much trade value. What helps the team more the low level prospect and/or Dominican lottery ticket that you will probably get for him OR his bat in the middle of the order?

[wildcard]

Santander is a FA after the 2024 season.   Are the O's going to sign him to a 4 or 5 year extension for  15 to 20M per year?   Probably not with Kjerstad, Cowser and Stowers  ready for the majors in the 2nd half of this year.

Elias will determine in July if the offers are good enough to trade Santander.  How many potential major league prospects can he get in return?  Whether its July or over the off season Santander is likely to be traded.   If Elias thinks Santander is a key part of the O's winning the World Series this year he can wait until the off season to trade him.

[wildcard]

13 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Org building in what way? I hate to damper the mode for the people who love to live in the future…. But the winning has already started. It’s here now! 

I believe that the plan is to have Kjerstad eventually take over for him as a middle of the order hitter. But right now he is in AA raking. 

None of the names mentioned are going to produce like Santander this season. What’s the rush to get him off the team? He can be moved or non-tendered in the offseason.

I just don’t see him having that much trade value. What helps the team more the low level prospect and/or Dominican lottery ticket that you will probably get for him OR his bat in the middle of the order?

A good middle of the order hitters is worth more than a lottery ticket.   He is probably worth a top 100 prospect  plus one or two other players.

[Malike]

34 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Why?  Org building for a perennial contender vs window dressing. 

How long does the FB 50-60 type prospect take to adjust to the ML?  Could the replacement be up a running by year-end?  Could it be Gunnar, Cowser, and some combo of Ortiz/Westburg?  Or even Kjerstad?  Unless you have projectable “answers” to that then I think anything is possible.

Beyond the Boxscore did a nice piece on this. There is a lot of data and you're welcome to look at the entire entry here How Long Does It Take for Top Prospects to Succeed in the Majors? - Beyond the Box Score

The data they used was top prospects 1-40.

Conclusions

• Prospects usually make you wait.  They rarely have even league average seasons right away.  Although it is unclear how much of this is because they are not yet average talent players, or because they are not given the opportunity to show how good they are over a full season of regular playing time.
• Most top prospects (58.6%) blossom in their second or third major league season.  But for any prospect, there’s a significant chance that he’ll blossom anywhere from his first to fifth season.
• Top pitching prospects have their first league average MLB season a little earlier than position player prospects.
• On average, you have to wait until a position player’s third season, after about 120 games and 440 PA for his first league average season.
• On average, you have to wait until a pitcher’s second or third season, after about 33 games, 19 starts and 130 IP for his first league average season.
• Age at first MLB call up is not a meaningful variable in how long it takes a top prospect to succeed in the majors.
• Better prospects (by BA rank) succeed a little more quickly than lesser prospects, but the difference is not great.

[ShoelesJoe]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

Why would we be anxious to trade him in season?

Because doing so would likely improve the team in the long run? An easy example -- the Braves' DH is currently batting .147 / .256 / .360 after putting up 226 / .274/ .413. last year. You don't think their GM wishes he had Santander in his lineup instead of Ozuna? After years of having one of the best minor league systems in the game Atlanta is pretty thin right now (not a single prospect in the MLB top 100), but the better prospects they do have are mostly pitchers. If I'm Elias I'd offer Santander in trade for 3-4 of their pitching prospects and not think twice about it. We can easily replace Santander in the long term, and all it would take is one of those young arms to eventually become a MLB regular and we'd come out way ahead on the deal. 

I'm sure there are other teams out there that could give us more than the Braves in such a trade, but in any case trading a hot Santander in season is probably the smart move for the Orioles. 

Edited May 6, 2023 by ShoelesJoe

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

A good middle of the order hitters is worth more than a lottery ticket.   He is probably worth a top 100 prospect  plus one or two other players.

I’m leery of how the game values him because of the subpar on base and sub .800 OPS.

I don’t really see a realistic scenario where we can get back a package like you describe.

Is there anything wrong with letting help this team win?