Anthony Santander 2023

[Aristotelian]

14 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Do you want to pay him $20+M to essentially DH? If the attitude of the O's ownership is to tie player salaries to attendance and the O's are, as we have discussed extensively here, a small market team; do you spend that cash on a DH who's likely to give you 2-3 WAR? 

I wouldn't do that.

There is a risk he accepts but the idea is that you give him the QO in order to receive the comp pick when he walks. He will be entering age 30, prime time for his shot at a long term contract. He could pull a Wieters on us and take it, but I don't think he would. Wieters probably cost himself a good bit of money doing that. 

[Jim'sKid26]

5 minutes ago, baltfan said:

He isn't a DH.  He has shown himself capable at first and actually ok in RF.  I don't cringe when I see him at either position.  Moreover, there is pretty much no one I would rather see up if the Orioles need a hit.  

He has played 64 innings at 1B. Small sample size but, you are correct. He is serviceable there OAA= 1

His number in RF are meh. OOA=1, UZR= 0.3. DRS = 4, so that's a bit better. But dWAR = -0.3

These numbers are likely to get worse as he ages. There are better defensive OF in the system. 

I think he's likely a DH-only in the next 12-24 months. He could play 1B but the O's will have better and cheaper options there. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

There is a risk he accepts but the idea is that you give him the QO in order to receive the comp pick when he walks. He will be entering age 30, prime time for his shot at a long term contract. He could pull a Wieters on us and take it, but I don't think he would. Wieters probably cost himself a good bit of money doing that. 

I disagree.

I think you should go back and look at his career.

I don't think he would have made big bank coming off a short season and TJ surgery.

[Aristotelian]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I disagree.

I think you should go back and look at his career.

I don't think he would have made big bank coming off a short season and TJ surgery.

Here's an article predicting 4/$64M at the time. Instead he made under $40M. I think the consensus view was that he should decline the pick and he would get a decent multiyear deal, although some here and elsewhere thought he might take it. 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/10/matt-wieters-mlb-free-agent.html

 

[Just Regular]

We'll get another sample of outcomes following Joc Pederson and Martin Perez accepting for 2023, and another 1.25 years of performance before the die is cast or not.

I do think Qualifying Offer refusals could be a bookend with Rookies of the Year as Elias works on sustaining.     The Mullins one is basically in the bank.     John Means is on same FA schedule as Santander, and I think '24 Means has a chance to outpitch '22 Martin Perez.

Granted Angelos' org likely to be more bashful than TEX/SF about this kind of thing, but in the Santander and Means cases, the Economic Analyst's summary may conclude here is a reasonable chance for an extra 1st round pick.

One of the ways I think Santander is separating from Hays for me is him I think reaching the QO ballpark.     That factor enhancing his value as a hold, and Hays 2-1 advantage in remaining years of control entering this offseason I think makes Hays a favorite as an offseason trade candidate to open a job for a kid.

[Aristotelian]

3 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

We'll get another sample of outcomes following Joc Pederson and Martin Perez accepting for 2023, and another 1.25 years of performance before the die is cast or not.

I do think Qualifying Offer refusals could be a bookend with Rookies of the Year as Elias works on sustaining.     The Mullins one is basically in the bank.     John Means is on same FA schedule as Santander, and I think '24 Means has a chance to outpitch '22 Martin Perez.

Granted Angelos' org likely to be more bashful than TEX/SF about this kind of thing, but in the Santander and Means cases, the Economic Analyst's summary may conclude here is a reasonable chance for an extra 1st round pick.

One of the ways I think Santander is separating from Hays for me is him I think reaching the QO ballpark.     That factor enhancing his value as a hold, and Hays 2-1 advantage in remaining years of control entering this offseason I think makes Hays a favorite as an offseason trade candidate to open a job for a kid.

Good analysis. I agree with this. At least, what I understood of it.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Baltimorecuse said:

We won't know for a couple of years.  Don't forget what I said.  Hector Lopez couldn't field.  

This Hector Lopez?  He’s before my time, retiring in 1966, the year I got interested in baseball. Per BB-ref, he was a -7 fielder in a 12-year career.   That’s slightly below average, but not terrible.

I do not expect Cowser to be a starting CF, but he should be at least average, and maybe better, in a corner spot.   
 

[spiritof66]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

This Hector Lopez?  He’s before my time, retiring in 1966, the year I got interested in baseball. Per BB-ref, he was a -7 fielder in a 12-year career.   That’s slightly below average, but not terrible.

I do not expect Cowser to be a starting CF, but he should be at least average, and maybe better, in a corner spot.   
 

I'm guessing that most of you haven't read The Great American Baseball Card Flipping, Trading and Bubble Gum Book, but all of you should. There's a good summary on Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_American_Baseball_Card_Flipping,_Trading_and_Bubble_Gum_Book , and while the authors are clear that accuracy is not paramount, here's what they say about Hector Lopez:

Now, it is not necessary for me to declare that Hector Lopez was the worst fielding third baseman in the history of baseball. Everyone knows that. It is more or less a matter of public record. But I do feel called upon somehow to try to indicate, if only for the historical archivists among us, the sheer depths of his innovative barbarousness. Hector Lopez was a butcher. Pure and Simple. A butcher. His range was about one step to either side, his hands seemed to be made of concrete and his defensive attitude was so cavalier and arbitrary as to hardly constitute an attitude at all. Hector did not simply field a groundball, he attacked it. Like a farmer trying to kill a snake with a stick. And his mishandling of routine infield flies was the sort of which legends are made. Hector Lopez was not just a bad fielder for a third baseman. In fact, Hector Lopez was not just a bad fielder for a baseball player. Hector Lopez was, when every factor has been taken into consideration, a bad fielder for a human being. The stands are full of obnoxious leather-lunged cretins who insist they can play better than most major leaguers. Well, in Hector's case they could have been right. I would like to go on record right here and now as declaring Hector Lopez the all-time worst fielding major league ballplayer. That's quite a responsibility there, Hector, but I have every confidence you'll be able to live up to it.

I never got to use the eye test on Hector so far as I can recall, but the NYY fans I've talked to who saw him play pretty much subscribe to this view.

 

 

 

[Frobby]

Thanks for that Wiki quote.  I wonder why the advanced metrics disagree with that conclusion.  Putting aside Rtot (which has him +3 at 3B over his career), @wildcard’s favorite, range factor, also shows him having average range, contrary to what the article says. Like I said, I never saw the guy play, so I don’t really nave an opinion on him.  

[Baltimorecuse]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

This Hector Lopez?  He’s before my time, retiring in 1966, the year I got interested in baseball. Per BB-ref, he was a -7 fielder in a 12-year career.   That’s slightly below average, but not terrible.

I do not expect Cowser to be a starting CF, but he should be at least average, and maybe better, in a corner spot.   
 

I remember the era well.  Hector was notorious.  There was a famous picture in SI, it may have been the cover, showing Hector holding his glove on his head because he'd lost the ball in the sun.  The caption was "Oh Hector, poor Hector."  

You guys are perfectly entitled to your opinion on Cowser.  I think you're wrong.  I don't have that opinion about any other O's player. I think you're in for a big disappointment unless you are happy with McKenna's slash line.  I didn't understand Frazier because he didn't fit the O's long term goals.  

[baltfan]

Call me crazy, but Santander reminds me of Nelson Cruz.  I think he will age similarly. 

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Call me crazy, but Santander reminds me of Nelson Cruz.  I think he will age similarly. 

I don't think Santander is as enhanced as Cruz was.

[SteveA]

3 hours ago, Baltimorecuse said:

We won't know for a couple of years.  Don't forget what I said.  Hector Lopez couldn't field.  

Maybe you're thinking of Carlos Lopez?

He was AWFUL in the field for the O's in the late 70s.

[baltfan]

21 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't think Santander is as enhanced as Cruz was.

Not quite but he is a big boy.  You never know. 

[survivedc]

4 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

That's what the QO is. It's the only way you would get draft compensation if he walks at the end of his ARB years.

Sure but the post you replied to wasn’t even advocating for a QO. Was simply he is more valuable to the team than he would be via trade value.