Jorge Mateo 2023

[Moose Milligan]

26 minutes ago, owknows said:

You can't credibly argue that none of them will.

 

I'll play devil's advocate, just for kicks.

I was an Orioles fan in the 90s and 2000s.  I remember it well.  

[owknows]

24 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t disagree with you but all of this assumes he had trade value in the offseason.

Trading him for an A ball flyer would have been a helluva lot better than nothing.

 

[Baltimorecuse]

20 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Make all the predictions you want, that's part of what this place is for.  You just make it once, hope no one really pays attention and don't keep repeating yourself.  Or else you'll end up like @Sports Guybeing remembered for his love affairs with Casey Kotchman and Brandon Wood.

In regards to what Elias will/won't do with regards to Mateo and the playoff odds...if they're trending at 65% and getting higher with each successive win at this pace, I doubt Elias does anything to shake up this team.  Outside of the Lopez and Mancini trades, he didn't last year, like I said he kept trotting out Odor.  And Mancini was one of the faces of the team...so if he trades Mancini last year with the team winning and playoff chances around 10%, what do you think he does this year with a guy like Santander or Hays and our playoff chances at 65%?  

I mean, that's what's so frustrating about it all, this team is winning at a really good clip and beating some tough teams, all the while it appears that there are underperformers and this team could be better.  But Elias clearly disagrees so far.

Pythagoras says we're playing in luck and I am assured that it is a mathematical certainty that this can't last.  

Edited June 21, 2023 by Baltimorecuse

[owknows]

8 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'll play devil's advocate, just for kicks.

I was an Orioles fan in the 90s and 2000s.  I remember it well.  

You really think there's been a point in the Orioles recent past where they've had an emerging 2B-3B-SS class anything the likes of Henderson, Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, Holliday, Mayo, Vavra

Let's assume you keep Urias as UTIL...  and Henderson has already earned a spot in the dirt.

That leaves Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, Holliday, Mayo, Vavra to fill at most 2 infield positions.

You really betting against any 2 of these guys?

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Baltimorecuse said:

Pythagoras says we're paying in luck and I am assured that it is a mathematical certainty that this can't last.  

I get that and I'm inclined to agree.

But I'm also inclined to say that Pythagoras is Greek for "math can kiss the fattest part of my ass" and that this is really fun and I'm a believer.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, owknows said:

You really think there's been a point in the Orioles recent past where they've had an emerging 2B-3B-SS class anything the likes of Henderson, Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, Holliday, Mayo, Vavra

Let's assume you keep Urias as UTIL...  and Henderson has already earned a spot in the dirt.

That leaves Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, Holliday, Mayo, Vavra to fill at most 2 infield positions.

You really betting against any 2 of these guys?

I SAID I was playing devil's advocate.  No, I'm not betting against any of these two guys.  

But in keeping up with the charade of playing contrarian, I do remember "The Calvary" and it only netting, like, three good seasons of Zack Britton as a closer.  Unless Tillman was part of that group.  Either way, I remember that group largely being a flop.  I'm pretty sure there was a time in Orioles history where Ken Gerhart and Pete Stanicek were considered to be future all-stars.  I remember being psyched about Curtis Goodwin and Alex Ochoa, too.  I thought Alex Ochoa was going to be the next Roberto Clemente or something.  I'm pretty sure we all thought Billy Rowell was going to be what Mike Trout really became from a hitting perspective.

All of that is to say that prospects don't work out all the time.  Now the fact that the team has this much infield talent together at once makes it a bit different and certainly stacks the odds in their favor and I'm not complaining about it at all.  But everything is always so rosy with prospects, isn't it?  What are we saying when Holliday tears an ACL, Norby gets traded, Westburg doesn't pan out, Ortiz can't hit and Mayo is average?  You think those things can't happen? 

Mind you, I'm not saying it's likely all of those things happen, but it can't be discounted.  It's weird to be cocky as an Orioles fan, isn't it?

I also think it's hilarious that you included Vavra in there.  C'mon.

[Sports Guy]

23 minutes ago, owknows said:

Trading him for an A ball flyer would have been a helluva lot better than nothing.

 

Sure but I actually don’t think that would have been worth it and I’m more down on Mateo now and before than basically anyone on here.

His speed and defense provides us value, especially as a contender.

[Going Underground]

So much for these three week articles about his stance and working with the hitting coaches  I guess the hitting coaches don't work with him anymore 

How a ‘unique’ toe tap unlocked Jorge Mateo’s swing and turned the Orioles’ speedster into a valuable slugger
https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-jorge-mateo-new-swing-20230427-xtrdq4gm5vdbzilmeu6e7dj3aq-story.html

[owknows]

54 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I SAID I was playing devil's advocate.  No, I'm not betting against any of these two guys.  

But in keeping up with the charade of playing contrarian, I do remember "The Calvary" and it only netting, like, three good seasons of Zack Britton as a closer.  Unless Tillman was part of that group.  Either way, I remember that group largely being a flop.  I'm pretty sure there was a time in Orioles history where Ken Gerhart and Pete Stanicek were considered to be future all-stars.  I remember being psyched about Curtis Goodwin and Alex Ochoa, too.  I thought Alex Ochoa was going to be the next Roberto Clemente or something.  I'm pretty sure we all thought Billy Rowell was going to be what Mike Trout really became from a hitting perspective.

All of that is to say that prospects don't work out all the time.  Now the fact that the team has this much infield talent together at once makes it a bit different and certainly stacks the odds in their favor and I'm not complaining about it at all.  But everything is always so rosy with prospects, isn't it?  What are we saying when Holliday tears an ACL, Norby gets traded, Westburg doesn't pan out, Ortiz can't hit and Mayo is average?  You think those things can't happen? 

Mind you, I'm not saying it's likely all of those things happen, but it can't be discounted.  It's weird to be cocky as an Orioles fan, isn't it?

I also think it's hilarious that you included Vavra in there.  C'mon.

Yeah... I was arguing against your Devil's Advocate self.. I suspected you were closer to my position than the Devil's Advocate poistion.. 

And for sure prospect don't work out all of the time. Or sometimes they fall a little short of expectations in some part of their game, making it advantageous to shift their position. I'm 100% sure that not all of the players we discussed will be top-shelf MLB ball players. But I would wager a considerable sum that at least two of them will be.

And yeah.. it is weird to be having this esoteric a discussion... Shows how far the team has come in developing a farm. They tanked when tanking was at peak value. And they appear to have drafted exceptionally well.

And I included Vavra because I think he's probably going to end up being an every day MLB player. Just not on this team.

Edited June 21, 2023 by owknows

[interloper]

There is no world in which Ortiz is not a better hitter right now than Mateo. And he's a near-equal defender. It's time to send Jorge to the bench. The same thing is happening here that did in San Diego, so I feel for him, but it is what it is. 

[owknows]

46 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Sure but I actually don’t think that would have been worth it and I’m more down on Mateo now and before than basically anyone on here.

His speed and defense provides us value, especially as a contender.

If we added two even reasonably good bats to the bottom of this order... and they weren't bums from a defensive standpoint... we'd be a legit Series contender without having to do much to the pitching staff.

I think that far outweighs Mateo's less than spectacular glove of late, and his speed is not so helpful with an OPS of .400

 

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, Baltimorecuse said:

Pythagoras says we're playing in luck and I am assured that it is a mathematical certainty that this can't last.  

Our pythag reveals the major hole/flaw in the team and it is the combination of having all but one starter who can give any kind of consistent length and very bad middle relief. 

Normally if our starters can go 6 we have a great shot to win, more than that and we have great odds because if we can get into the 7th with a lead and turn things over to Cano to Bautista, the odds say we will win almost all such games. The tricky spot is when that doesn;t happen.

Routinely against good offenses, if the starter leaves before 6, things get dicey because we don't have middle relievers who can get clean innings (even if given big leads) i.e. last night or Toronto last week.

This is the main reason why our pyth does not reflect our record. We are not getting "lucky", we just have 4 "5 and dive starters" COMBINEd with middle relievers who are not very good.

[Bemorewins]

9 minutes ago, interloper said:

There is no world in which Ortiz is not a better hitter right now than Mateo. And he's a near-equal defender. It's time to send Jorge to the bench. The same thing is happening here that did in San Diego, so I feel for him, but it is what it is. 

The question for me is not whether Ortiz is a better hitter than Mateo, but is he a better player to play than Urias? 

I think the consensus amongst O's fans is that Mateo's days are (rightfully so) numbered as a starter. But would the team be better served to put Gunnar at SS for the remainder of the year and Urias at 3B (where he is the reigning GG winner)? I'm not certain that that is not the best thing for the team to do. Because I am not sure that Ortiz is a better offensive player than Urias.

As things stand now, when Mullins returns our 1-7 in the line up will be very good. But if Frazier is hitting 8th, we already know that he's pretty light hitting, save for the occasional clutch hit/home run. I would prefer that whoever bats #9 is not a black hole/very weak hitter as is now. 

I'm not saying that Ortiz can't be good (given time to adjust) but I do have concerns about how long that will take, if it ever happens? I don't want to exchange 1 light hitting, great gloved SS for another. Especially, not when 2B is already not giving us a lot of consistent offensive production.

[Safelykept]

37 minutes ago, interloper said:

There is no world in which Ortiz is not a better hitter right now than Mateo. And he's a near-equal defender. It's time to send Jorge to the bench. The same thing is happening here that did in San Diego, so I feel for him, but it is what it is. 

Have to agree, Mateo has played his way into a reserve roll. Giving Ortiz 4 or 5 starts a week is almost a free trial run to improve SS, Mateo is already a black hole in the lineup.

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Make all the predictions you want, that's part of what this place is for.  You just make it once, hope no one really pays attention and don't keep repeating yourself.  Or else you'll end up like @Sports Guybeing remembered for his love affairs with Casey Kotchman and Brandon Wood.

In regards to what Elias will/won't do with regards to Mateo and the playoff odds...if they're trending at 65% and getting higher with each successive win at this pace, I doubt Elias does anything to shake up this team.  Outside of the Lopez and Mancini trades, he didn't last year, like I said he kept trotting out Odor.  And Mancini was one of the faces of the team...so if he trades Mancini last year with the team winning and playoff chances around 10%, what do you think he does this year with a guy like Santander or Hays and our playoff chances at 65%?  

I mean, that's what's so frustrating about it all, this team is winning at a really good clip and beating some tough teams, all the while it appears that there are underperformers and this team could be better.  But Elias clearly disagrees so far.

When you have a 65% chance of making the playoffs but 2% chance of winning the WS, it may make a lot more sense to try and improve the team for a short term run than when you are a longshot to even make the playoffs. Either way we haven't seen it before so I don't think we can generalize from Odor or Lopez. If Mateo is still the weak link in a few weeks I could see a pivot. But maybe Mateo turns things around and Kremer/Irvin is the weak link. And I don't know whether the upgrades will come internally or externally.