Jorge Mateo 2023

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, HandsomeQuack said:

Trading Mateo makes zero sense at the moment considering that no valuation from another team will be as high as the level at which he is currently playing. What kind of first half would he need to have where he is both a) playing well enough to get a decent haul and b) not playing so great that the win-now-mode team can't part with him? Short of Burnes or Cease (which have roughly 0% chance of happening), I struggle to envision a deal that makes sense. Maybe Bobby Miller?

You don't think Cease will be available? Surely we have more org talent to trade from than any other team in the game including the Dodgers, Rays, and Guardians. 

I would argue that we could pull the trigger on a Cease trade and still be staffed incredibly well at every position and have plenty left overs.

There are only 2 non-replaceable players in our org, Adley and Grayson. Everyone else, we have spots to cover (well at least on the position side). We are absent of top end talent on the pitching side except for Grayson.

[HakunaSakata]

5 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

I think you absolutely trade Mateo for some of those guys. Especially Brown/Kirby/Javier who have already shown their stuff in the big leagues.

If I was in Mike Elias' shoes, "Is this Jorge Mateo for real?" would be one of the top priorities of my stats/research team at the moment. 

I was purposely trying to put our sometimes orange tinted valuation of our players to the test. 

[Tony-OH]

I think you only move Mateo at this point for a young TOR or major league ready TOR potential starter, but I'm not sure he's going to get that.

Right now, with his adjustments a the plate, it's hard to think about moving him when he's playing like the best player in baseball. Do I think the Orioles have a replacement ready in Ortiz? Yes. But I'd much rather have Ortiz playing next to him at 2B and have two SSs playing up the middle. 

Unless the Orioles crash and are out of it by the trade deadline (doubtful), Mateo should be this team's everyday SS this year. Henderson should basically platoon with Urias at 3B with Urias picking up extra playing time at 2B. 

[HakunaSakata]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I think you only move Mateo at this point for a young TOR or major league ready TOR potential starter, but I'm not sure he's going to get that.

Right now, with his adjustments a the plate, it's hard to think about moving him when he's playing like the best player in baseball. Do I think the Orioles have a replacement ready in Ortiz? Yes. But I'd much rather have Ortiz playing next to him at 2B and have two SSs playing up the middle. 

Unless the Orioles crash and are out of it by the trade deadline (doubtful), Mateo should be this team's everyday SS this year. Henderson should basically platoon with Urias at 3B with Urias picking up extra playing time at 2B. 

I think this is where I am right now. We haven't talked about the Guardians as a potential trade partner, but they're loaded with young arms and their offense has REALLY been struggling. They could also potentially move Rosario to the OF if they traded for a SS. If they offered up Logan Allen or Tanner Bibee for Mateo it would certainly be something to think about. 

[Hank Scorpio]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

I think you only move Mateo at this point for a young TOR or major league ready TOR potential starter, but I'm not sure he's going to get that.

Right now, with his adjustments a the plate, it's hard to think about moving him when he's playing like the best player in baseball. Do I think the Orioles have a replacement ready in Ortiz? Yes. But I'd much rather have Ortiz playing next to him at 2B and have two SSs playing up the middle. 

Unless the Orioles crash and are out of it by the trade deadline (doubtful), Mateo should be this team's everyday SS this year. Henderson should basically platoon with Urias at 3B with Urias picking up extra playing time at 2B. 

In many respects, what has transpired is best case scenario. The goal is winning at the ML level and that's happening and Mateo has been an enormous part of it. 

If only he was 23 or 24... 

[Jammer7]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I think you only move Mateo at this point for a young TOR or major league ready TOR potential starter, but I'm not sure he's going to get that.

Right now, with his adjustments a the plate, it's hard to think about moving him when he's playing like the best player in baseball. Do I think the Orioles have a replacement ready in Ortiz? Yes. But I'd much rather have Ortiz playing next to him at 2B and have two SSs playing up the middle. 

Unless the Orioles crash and are out of it by the trade deadline (doubtful), Mateo should be this team's everyday SS this year. Henderson should basically platoon with Urias at 3B with Urias picking up extra playing time at 2B. 

These are my thoughts, exactly. Mateo looks like he has developed some things and made adjustments that are meaningful and sustainable.

We might see Urias moved, sooner or later, for the purpose of Ortiz and/or Westburg coming up and breaking in. They might even need to send Henderson down for a while, just to get his head straight. He looks like he’s too much in his own head right now. I would give him a bit longer, and see if he can recover, but he looks bewildered right now. 

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

Put yourself in Mike Elias' shoes. If any of these hypothetical trades/players were offered to you for Mateo would you accept? 

Hunter Brown (HOU)
24 year old righty. 
2.37 ERA / 1.05 WHIP / 32 Ks (in 30 IP)

-----------------------------------------

George Kirby (SEA)
25 year old righty
3.30 ERA / 1.21 WHIP / 24 Ks (in 30 IP)

-----------------------------------------

Christian Javier (HOU)
26 year old righty
3.48 ERA / 1.13 WHIP / 35 Ks (in 33.2 IP)

-----------------------------------------

Eury Perez (MIA)
20 year old righty
Minor Leagues (top 10ish prospect) - 2.70 ERA / 1.00 WHIP  / 22 Ks (in 20 IP)

-----------------------------------------

Gavin Williams (CLE)
23 year old righty
Minor Leagues (top 40ish prospect) - 1.74 ERA / .92 WHIP / 26 Ks (in 19.2 IP)

 

 

Javier from HOU would interest me, but why would they be getting rid of their #2 starter? They are trying to compete for another ring. Winning teams like them don't do that. Wouldn't they prefer to give a prospect instead of subtracting for the most valuable asset in the game, starting pitcher? Why would SEA or MIA or even CLE be making these trades?

I ask because I am struggling to understand the logic in why either team would be interested in doing these trades.  Especially MIA giving up their top pitching prospect on a team that is not going anywhere. Wouldn't they be more interested in giving up one of their major league guys? Same with CLE no?

Why would the Orioles being trading a guy that is helping them win now on a good team in order to acquire a guy that MAY help them win later? Aren't we trying to compete? Or is that starting next year?

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Going by bWAR Mateo is on pace for a 9.8 WAR season that rivals some of Cal's best seasons. Realistically Mateo will cool off at some point, but even then Mateo will still be an all star level shortstop if the improvement in his swing is for real.

[Moose Milligan]

6 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Going by bWAR Mateo is on pace for a 9.8 WAR season that rivals some of Cal's best seasons. Realistically Mateo will cool off at some point, but even then Mateo will still be an all star level shortstop if the improvement in his swing is for real.

I was actually looking at this last week.  His 1991 season was worth 11.5 bWAR, his '83 season was 8.2. He was actually better in '84 and finished 27th in MVP voting with a 10.0 bWAR season.  While the '84 team wasn't that good, it's hard to believe that WILLIE HERNANDEZ AND HIS 4.8 bWAR was significantly better.  I get that the Tigers were legit that year but if WAR was a stat then, Ripken probably wins back to back MVPs.  He was #1 in WAR by a good margin that year, Dave Stieb was second with 7.9 and Lloyd Moseby was third with 7.3 and Eddie had 7.1.

So if Mateo somehow hits that 9.8 number, he'll be in some lofty company, especially if the team keeps winning.  He'd be looking at an MVP type season, only thing that holds him back, IMO, is name recognition.  

 

 

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

 

So if Mateo somehow hits that 9.8 number, he'll be in some lofty company, especially if the team keeps winning.  He'd be looking at an MVP type season, only thing that holds him back, IMO, is name recognition.  

Oh, I’m pretty sure Mateo’s name will be recognized by all baseball fans and writers if he actually posts a 9.8 rWAR season.  But I’m taking the under, by a lot.  

[Aristotelian]

35 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

 

So if Mateo somehow hits that 9.8 number, he'll be in some lofty company, especially if the team keeps winning.  He'd be looking at an MVP type season, only thing that holds him back, IMO, is name recognition.  

 

 

I was thinking about this too. It's not too early for those "M-V-P" chants, is it? 

[Otter]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

I was actually looking at this last week.  His 1991 season was worth 11.5 bWAR, his '83 season was 8.2. He was actually better in '84 and finished 27th in MVP voting with a 10.0 bWAR season.  While the '84 team wasn't that good, it's hard to believe that WILLIE HERNANDEZ AND HIS 4.8 bWAR was significantly better.  I get that the Tigers were legit that year but if WAR was a stat then, Ripken probably wins back to back MVPs.  He was #1 in WAR by a good margin that year, Dave Stieb was second with 7.9 and Lloyd Moseby was third with 7.3 and Eddie had 7.1.

So if Mateo somehow hits that 9.8 number, he'll be in some lofty company, especially if the team keeps winning.  He'd be looking at an MVP type season, only thing that holds him back, IMO, is name recognition.  

 

 

Very interesting research.  The analytics era has really improved how awards are handed out; it's much less of a popularity contest than it used to be....i.e. Jeter gold gloves...

Btw, since you mentioned Dave Stieb; he was my favorite non-Oriole pitcher to watch....one of the nastiest sliders I've seen...

[Moose Milligan]

2 hours ago, Otter said:

Very interesting research.  The analytics era has really improved how awards are handed out; it's much less of a popularity contest than it used to be....i.e. Jeter gold gloves...

Btw, since you mentioned Dave Stieb; he was my favorite non-Oriole pitcher to watch....one of the nastiest sliders I've seen...

I think Stieb is picking up HOF steam with the veterans committees. 

[Il BuonO]

8 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

You don't think Cease will be available? Surely we have more org talent to trade from than any other team in the game including the Dodgers, Rays, and Guardians. 

I would argue that we could pull the trigger on a Cease trade and still be staffed incredibly well at every position and have plenty left overs.

There are only 2 non-replaceable players in our org, Adley and Grayson. Everyone else, we have spots to cover (well at least on the position side). We are absent of top end talent on the pitching side except for Grayson.

That’s quite a departure from what you said yesterday.

[Bemorewins]

38 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

That’s quite a departure from what you said yesterday.

Which part?