For The Times they are a'Changin

[geschinger]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It is true. There are several teams that win year in and year out and still put out very good farm systems. 
 

You don’t need to tank for 4-5 years to do it.

We're going in circles as you are focused on what can be done to maintain a successful franchise, and I'm talking about what was needed to rebuild a franchise/farm  system from the ground up.  I fully expect the Orioles to now be one of the teams that win year in and year out and put out a very good farm system. Draft well, and augment the system by spinning off other assets for prospects and international.  Tanking is not needed to accomplish this.  And yes, several teams do this year in and year out.  But that is not the context Elias had to start from.

 

 

 

[geschinger]

2 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

Tampa's model has changed a little. More extensions for players  Akso read if and when they get their new stadium ,they will boost  payroll even higher 

Has it?  Maybe, but I seem to recall they've done extensions in the past and still sold those players off well before the extension expiration date.  It will take some time to convince me it has changed.

[Pickles]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No, you are cheap..at least in the way you want the Os to operate.

I happened to watch Moneyball yesterday.  I love so much about what Oakland did and what their goal was.  It really was brilliant.

But we don’t have to be that cheap. We can sustain 120M+ payrolls.

What we shouldn’t  be doing is spending any real money on the last 10-15 players on the roster. You should be developing role players every year as opposed to paying 3-5M for a guy like Givens.

You shouldn’t extend or sign Mountcastle like guys to larger contracts. He is a guy that the moneyball haters (the scouts) would say you have to keep..hits 30 homers, can drive in 100 runs, etc…let someone else stupidly pay him 15+M a year for 4-7 years. 
 

But you can and should absolutely spend on difference making talent.

Basically , you do what Houston has been doing. Short term, cheaper FA deals, trades and keep your best players. 

Houston has watched most of their "best" players walk as free agents.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, geschinger said:

We're going in circles as you are focused on what can be done to maintain a successful franchise, and I'm talking about what was needed to rebuild a franchise/farm  system from the ground up.  I fully expect the Orioles to now be one of the teams that win year in and year out and put out a very good farm system. Draft well, and augment the system by spinning off other assets for prospects and international.  Tanking is not needed to accomplish this.  And yes, several teams do this year in and year out.  But that is not the context Elias had to start from.

 

 

 

I’m talking both. They didn’t need to rebuild/tank for 4+ years to get the system to a high level.

[Bemorewins]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

To start with I have a lot more confidence  in GRod, Bradish, Kremer, Wells, Means, Hall and Seth Johnson then many do.  Also the O's have shown the ability to cheaply acquire and develop relievers.  Plus the O's ability to have an above average defensive team that helps the pitching staff.

Many don't think of those starters as elite but I think they are developing  and that there will be five that can carry this team to the World Series.    And I believe in the O's to identify, acquire  and develop additional young pitchers.

I commend you for you optimism, though in many of your post it reads as sort of blind faith, but to each their own.

By almost any knowledgeable analyst/prognosticator of the game; the O's do not currently posses the starting pitching talent to win a World Series. And even mentioning DL Hall... I mean wow! He will be 25 this year and hasn't figured out as of yet how to get out AAA hitters consistently.

I've got some magic Orioles beans I would love to see you if interested...LOL

[Ohfan67]

4 minutes ago, geschinger said:

Has it?  Maybe, but I seem to recall they've done extensions in the past and still sold those players off well before the extension expiration date.  It will take some time to convince me it has changed.

They have also always been pretty brave about trading good players while they still have a lot of value. To maintain long-term success I think the Orioles will have to do this. 

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Houston has watched most of their "best" players walk as free agents.

That’s not true. They kept the guys they wanted. They have signed and extended a lot of players.

They didn’t see the need to spend stupidly on Correa..because of Peña and his injury history. They didn’t need/want to spend on Springer because of his injury history. They let those guys walk because they didn’t want to keep them.

 

Edited April 24, 2023 by Sports Guy

[owknows]

7 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Okay let me ask you a couple of questions:

1) Do you live in this community?

2) Are you a part of the Angelos family or are you a member of the Orioles P/R?

Because what you are advocating for is alienating even more fans. Have you noticed that the Rays have NO FANS? That's because most people fall in love with people... You know like the players on the actual team. If you don't have any stars to market and people don't have any trust that you will retain any of them, people will lose interest in the team.

For younger fans, the names on the back of the shirts MATTER a big deal. Not many people are just going to support the shirts because it's black and orange and says Orioles.

The days of the uniformed fan who just exhibits BLIND LOYALTY to a team are just about over. You have to have plays/stars to market and sell to your fanbase. I know analytics are everything in the game, but there is a HUMAN component to the emotional investment that it requires to be a fan of the team.

I'M ALL THE WAY OUT ON WHAT YOU ARE SELLING! Because this will only truly benefit the pockets of the owner. And I have ABSOLUTELY no interest in rooting for a billion dollar business to make more millions by being cheap.

Setting aside your emotional histrionics, yes... I'm a local. And no, I'm not an Angelos. and not affiliated with the Orioles.

I'm just a fan... of both baseball... and of the Orioles.

And I think the game is on a bad path.

And I think clever teams finding ways to build winners without spending obscene amounts of money is good for those teams, and good for the sport.

Whether you're in on what I'm selling is a matter of complete indifference to me.

[Sports Guy]

Look at Atlanta. They don’t really play in the FA waters either. They keep their own, let guys walk/trade them that they don’t want to go crazy to keep and they keep churning out great systems because of how well they run things.

They don’t need to be bad to do this. It’s just being smart.

For years, everyone has feared the Yankees and yes they win a lot of games but they don’t scare me, as an organization, nearly as much as Tampa does. 

[Pickles]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

That’s not true. They kept the guys they wanted. They have signed and extended a lot of players.

They didn’t see the need to spend stupidly on Correa..because of Peña and his injury history. They didn’t need to spend on Springer because of his injury history. They let those guys walk because they didn’t want to keep them.

 

Correa.  Springer.  Verlander.  Cole. Keuchel.  ETC.

They've let a lot more guys walk than they've extended.  In fact, Altuve and Alvarez are their only notable extensions.

[deward]

I've said before, your model relies on Elias (or any GM) being perfect all the time. Adley is a superstar. Gunnar could be a superstar. Holliday could be a superstar. That caliber of player doesn't grow on trees, and the idea of a team having a "conveyor belt" to churn out that caliber of player on a regular basis strikes me as closer to a pipe dream than a sustainable model. If the O's were somehow able to master the process of reliably producing replacements for their stars, on schedule, with no talent drop off, then sure, I guess, John Angelos can continue to rake in profits off the backs of wildly underpaid young players. 

In reality, no team has ever achieved that level of perfection, not even Tampa. The O's obviously don't need a LAD/NYY/BOS sized payroll to compete, but the correlation between teams that are in the top half of the league in payroll and teams and bring home the trophy each year is long and strong. I'd suggest that the optimal model for a team in the O's market would be a flexible one. Draft/int'l sign and develop well, of course. Identify opportunities to pick up undervalued players, of course. Trade certain players when the time is right, sure (keeping in mind that nobody wins all of those player-for-prospects trades, or even most of them). I think they would be foolish to not be in the process of identifying players that can't be easily replaced and figuring out if keeping them long-term is feasible (just like Tampa did with Wander Franco). They should also be looking for opportunities to selectively add established players at key positions of need, even if it means taking on the last 2-3 years of a big contract. You don't need to throw money at every problem, but the willingness to throw money at some key opportunities will be crucial.

Of course, if more and more teams decided to go your route, there wouldn't be enough teams left to trade your soon-to-be expensive players to anyway, so the whole thing would break down.

[Going Underground]

5 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Correa.  Springer.  Verlander.  Cole. Keuchel.  ETC.

They've let a lot more guys walk than they've extended.  In fact, Altuve and Alvarez are their only notable extensions.

But this year they have the 10th highest payroll in baseball at around $191 mm. They have bern top 10 since 2019 and depending on what site you look at been as high as fourth, fifth and eighth.  Be a long time if ever that the Orioles have a $191 mm. payroll.

 

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Correa.  Springer.  Verlander.  Cole. Keuchel.  ETC.

They've let a lot more guys walk than they've extended.  In fact, Altuve and Alvarez are their only notable extensions.

Bregman.  They have extended BP guys. They have signed some of the starters too.

Put it another way..they are letting go the guys they don’t feel the need to keep.

They don’t feel the need to spend 30+M a year for starters..and guess what, they are proven correct.

[owknows]

Just now, deward said:

I've said before, your model relies on Elias (or any GM) being perfect all the time. Adley is a superstar. Gunnar could be a superstar. Holliday could be a superstar. That caliber of player doesn't grow on trees, and the idea of a team having a "conveyor belt" to churn out that caliber of player on a regular basis strikes me as closer to a pipe dream than a sustainable model. If the O's were somehow able to master the process of reliably producing replacements for their stars, on schedule, with no talent drop off, then sure, I guess, John Angelos can continue to rake in profits off the backs of wildly underpaid young players. 

In reality, no team has ever achieved that level of perfection, not even Tampa. The O's obviously don't need a LAD/NYY/BOS sized payroll to compete, but the correlation between teams that are in the top half of the league in payroll and teams and bring home the trophy each year is long and strong. I'd suggest that the optimal model for a team in the O's market would be a flexible one. Draft/int'l sign and develop well, of course. Identify opportunities to pick up undervalued players, of course. Trade certain players when the time is right, sure (keeping in mind that nobody wins all of those player-for-prospects trades, or even most of them). I think they would be foolish to not be in the process of identifying players that can't be easily replaced and figuring out if keeping them long-term is feasible (just like Tampa did with Wander Franco). They should also be looking for opportunities to selectively add established players at key positions of need, even if it means taking on the last 2-3 years of a big contract. You don't need to throw money at every problem, but the willingness to throw money at some key opportunities will be crucial.

Of course, if more and more teams decided to go your route, there wouldn't be enough teams left to trade your soon-to-be expensive players to anyway, so the whole thing would break down.

If you draft poorly, you'll handcuff your team's chances

If you don't understand the international market, you'll handcuff your team's chances

If you make bad early signing decisions, you'll handcuff your team's chances

If you sign big money free agents whose performance falls off a cliff, you'll handcuff your chances.

If you make bad trades, you'll handcuff your team's chances.

Having a GM who really understands the game and makes wise decisions is important to your success.

They don't have to be perfect.. but they better be right more often than not.

Whether you have a big market "buy it" strategy... or a small market "grow it" strategy.

[Hank Scorpio]

10 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Okay let me ask you a couple of questions:

1) Do you live in this community?

2) Are you a part of the Angelos family or are you a member of the Orioles P/R?

Because what you are advocating for is alienating even more fans. Have you noticed that the Rays have NO FANS? That's because most people fall in love with people... You know like the players on the actual team. If you don't have any stars to market and people don't have any trust that you will retain any of them, people will lose interest in the team.

For younger fans, the names on the back of the shirts MATTER a big deal. Not many people are just going to support the shirts because it's black and orange and says Orioles.

The days of the uniformed fan who just exhibits BLIND LOYALTY to a team are just about over. You have to have plays/stars to market and sell to your fanbase. I know analytics are everything in the game, but there is a HUMAN component to the emotional investment that it requires to be a fan of the team.

I'M ALL THE WAY OUT ON WHAT YOU ARE SELLING! Because this will only truly benefit the pockets of the owner. And I have ABSOLUTELY no interest in rooting for a billion dollar business to make more millions by being cheap.

It must be infuriating to be the GM of the Tampa Rays. 

In 2008, they won 97 games, won the division, went to the World Series for the love of all that's holy and averaged 22K a night. 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/attendance/_/year/2008

Winning drives attendance for everyone but them. 

Since 2010, they are 167 games over .500 and every single year in that span they have been no better than 3rd worst in all of baseball in attendance. For 9 consecutive years from 2010-2019 they were dead last in attendance. 

It's the horrifying mausoleum they call the Trop, mostly. Transient population probably also plays a role. They are likely more Yankees fans in Tampa than Rays fans.