TT: It's time to bring up Colton Cowser

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

Totally agree, but Vavra only has one DH appearance this season. Adley is leading with 7 I think. I'm guessing you're counting last year as well?

Regardless, this is the way to do it. Vavra optioned and shifting Hays to RF. Of course it makes way too much sense so it definitely won't happen.

Just going by Baseball Reference which puts players in the position that have the most starts there. Santander has the most starts at 9, but he also has the most starts in RF so he's listed there. Vavra has 7 as well as Adley, but Adley of course has the most starts at catcher which puts Vavra down at DH. At the end of the day, Vavra should not have 7 starts at DH. 

I just think we bring a guy up who is on a heater, especially if hays needs to miss a few games. Last night the Orioles had Frazier in RF and Vavra in LF after Hays' injury. that's one ugly offensive corner outfielders. The Orioles have better options and Cowser is one of them even though he's not on the 40-man. 

 

[spleen1015]

Where Vavra has been on defense according to Baseball Reference. The first column right of POS is G and the next one is GS. Only 1 GS at DH for Vavra.

[Tony-OH]

40 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I was shocked by Hays’ poor defense in the first 7-10 days, but it seems to me like he’s righted the ship.   I’d like to keep an eye on this for a few more weeks before pulling the trigger on a move like this.   I do think the data Tony cited about Hays’ burst and jump are a concern.  

The biggest issue for me is that these numbers are continuing from last year as well. We know the Boston series was very bad for him and everyone else it seemed, but those jump numbers are real good indicator, much better than our naked eye. I'll be honest, besides a few plays here and there and outside of the Boston series, I didn't think he looked that bad out there, but the numbers say otherwise and I tend to believe those jump and ft/sec covered numbers more than anything when it comes to outfield range. 

I've liked what I've seen from Cowser defensively so far this year even though I have no statcast information for defense to back it up in AAA. Plus, with Henderson starting to hit, I think they can afford his bat if he takes a bit to get his feet under him at the major league level.

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

Just going by Baseball Reference which puts players in the position that have the most starts there. Santander has the most starts at 9, but he also has the most starts in RF so he's listed there. Vavra has 7 as well as Adley, but Adley of course has the most starts at catcher which puts Vavra down at DH. At the end of the day, Vavra should not have 7 starts at DH. 

I just think we bring a guy up who is on a heater, especially if hays needs to miss a few games. Last night the Orioles had Frazier in RF and Vavra in LF after Hays' injury. that's one ugly offensive corner outfielders. The Orioles have better options and Cowser is one of them even though he's not on the 40-man. 

 

I assume the Orioles know they have better OF options than Vavra and Frazier, but it seems like they're not certain they have better OF options than Hays and Santander. Or at least they're waiting for something to necessitate a move, like an injury. 

I totally agree though. We should start mixing these guys in now. Honestly, the offense was not all that great in that 7-game stretch and it's a concern for me, almost more than pitching right now. Guys like Cowser and Westburg could really add a nice boost. Or at least give you a better shot than Vavra and Frazier. 

[Moose Milligan]

22 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Guess we are about to find out.  My feeling was they’d kick him to the curb when the time was right.  Man I hope they don’t disappoint me.  Would be a gut punch to have Frazier blocking The kids while he is playing poorly. Especially while team is on a heater.   Add gas to the fire!!

 

1 minute ago, Spy Fox said:

I think Frazier is headed for the bench in June IF three things about the current status quo stay that way: 1, Frazier isn't hitting. 2, Westburg and/or Ortiz are hitting well in AAA. 3) The other current O's infielders are all still here and healthy. 

I don't think the 8M price tag guarantees a year-long starting spot. A bunch of factors are different than last year that prevent this from being Odor Pt 2. 

No chance.

I mean, flip it on it's head.  The Orioles were a surprise team last year that had playoff contention hopes until about 2 weeks to go in the season and they trotted Odor out practically every day for around 800k.

This year, they're looked at as anywhere from a 70-75 win team to a playoff contender depending on who you ask.  Regardless, Frazier is viewed as an upgrade and he is.  But the point is that they paid Odor 800k last year and played him damn near every day, they're ABSOLUTELY NOT going to put Frazier on the bench or release him since he's making 10x what Odor made last year.  

If (and it's a big IF) they can find a willing trade partner, I believe Elias will pull the trigger but they'll have to eat a large part of the remaining salary for the rest of the year.  Fine.  But what team would trade low level prospects/organizational filler for a 2nd baseman who has an OPS is in the low .600s?  Even with salary relief.  I mean, I think most organizations can find that production in their own system for a lot less cheaper and not having to part with any talent.

I think, best case scenario is that they do some kind of a platoon with Frazier.  He makes 2-3 starts a week, splitting the time with someone else.  

To @Sports Guy's point about Elias saying that a left handed hitting second baseman was desired, I find that really odd and strange.  I'm an Elias fan, but this is one head scratcher that doesn't make sense, especially considering you've got switch hitters in Rutschman and Santander, and a lefty in Gunnar.  I could kind of understand if it was a power thing, but Frazier doesn't provide much power at all to take advantage of RF in Camden Yards.

 

 

 

 

[spleen1015]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

I assume the Orioles know they have better OF options than Vavra and Frazier, but it seems like they're not certain they have better OF options than Hays and Santander. Or at least they're waiting for something to necessitate a move, like an injury. 

I totally agree though. We should start mixing these guys in now. Honestly, the offense was not all that great in that 7-game stretch and it's a concern for me, almost more than pitching right now. Guys like Cowser and Westburg could really add a nice boost. Or at least give you a better shot than Vavra and Frazier. 

Do you say this assuming they're likely to suck for 50-80 ABs?

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, spleen1015 said:

Where Vavra has been on defense according to Baseball Reference. The first column right of POS is G and the next one is GS. Only 1 GS at DH for Vavra.

You are right. I accidently looked at his career numbers at DH, not his 2023. Either way, the point stands that Cowser's defense in LF will help the team and he's currently made the adjustments and is hitting well and looks ready.

[Aristotelian]

Urias looked pretty good at 2B the other day. Frazier isn't the only guy Westburg has to leapfrog. 

[Tony-OH]

38 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Frazier and his 8 million contract say otherwise.

I don't want to make this into a Frazier thread, but yeah, I agree. 

It's ashamed because I'd much rather have Cowser in LF and Ortiz/Westburg at 2B right now. Instead Frazier is not only getting every day PAs at 2B, he's getting RF time which hurts my brain to think how Elias things this is his best lineup.

[emmett16]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think the 8M guaranteed 400+ at bats if he is healthy and not traded.

Doesnt mean he starts as much as he is now but he will still be taking at bats away from players he shouldn’t.

What do you think is the lowest level of accepted production before they move on?  
 

I like what Elias does for the most part, but I’d really like to see a surprise bold move of bringing up the youth and jettisoning a poor performer. 
 

Really want to see Cowser out in LF. 

Edited April 26, 2023 by emmett16

[Tony-OH]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think the 8M guaranteed 400+ at bats if he is healthy and not traded.

Doesnt mean he starts as much as he is now but he will still be taking at bats away from players he shouldn’t.

It's almost like some of us said that the Orioles had 3 internal options better than Frazier when he was signed. Weird, those three options all look like better options 23 games into the season.

Let's hope Elias will admit his mistake sooner than later, but I think he's getting at least a half year before Elias admits he was wrong. It's easy to run him out there when they are winning despite his subpar play, but it will become more highlighted when the team inevitably goes into a losing streak. 

Either way, Cowser is a guy who should get all of the PAs that he and Vavra would get in the outfield on top of all the LF PAs against right-handers..

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

I don't want to make this into a Frazier thread, but yeah, I agree. 

It's ashamed because I'd much rather have Cowser in LF and Ortiz/Westburg at 2B right now. Instead Frazier is not only getting every day PAs at 2B, he's getting RF time which hurts my brain to think how Elias things this is his best lineup.

I didn't either, but it's hard not to when we're playing positional musical chairs and you realize that he affects what you can do in the outfield, too.  

And, for the record, I don't have a huge, huge problem with Frazier the guy and Frazier the player.  I mean, he is what he is, which is a slap hitter that gives relatively good at bats, can help drive up a pitch count and not strike out 2-3 times a game like Odor was doing last year.   I think defensively at second he's cromulent, but I'm not sure if I want him in the outfield.  The versatility is overrated when it comes to him.  He is better than Odor last year...when I say I don't have a huge, huge problem with him and that he's better than Odor, that doesn't mean I think he's GOOD.  He's just cleared Odor's bar to hurdle which was, like, a couple inches off the ground.  

I do have a problem with the 8 million and I do have a problem with how he clogs up the roster.  When it looks as if he could be getting in the way of a 1st round pick getting at bats in the majors, relegating Santander to the DH position and moving Hays to RF in addition to guys like Westburg/Ortiz getting playing time at 2nd, that's an issue.  

[Spy Fox]

9 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

No chance.

I mean, flip it on it's head.  The Orioles were a surprise team last year that had playoff contention hopes until about 2 weeks to go in the season and they trotted Odor out practically every day for around 800k.

This year, they're looked at as anywhere from a 70-75 win team to a playoff contender depending on who you ask.  Regardless, Frazier is viewed as an upgrade and he is.  But the point is that they paid Odor 800k last year and played him damn near every day, they're ABSOLUTELY NOT going to put Frazier on the bench or release him since he's making 10x what Odor made last year.  

If (and it's a big IF) they can find a willing trade partner, I believe Elias will pull the trigger but they'll have to eat a large part of the remaining salary for the rest of the year.  Fine.  But what team would trade low level prospects/organizational filler for a 2nd baseman who has an OPS is in the low .600s?  Even with salary relief.  I mean, I think most organizations can find that production in their own system for a lot less cheaper and not having to part with any talent.

I think, best case scenario is that they do some kind of a platoon with Frazier.  He makes 2-3 starts a week, splitting the time with someone else.  

To @Sports Guy's point about Elias saying that a left handed hitting second baseman was desired, I find that really odd and strange.  I'm an Elias fan, but this is one head scratcher that doesn't make sense, especially considering you've got switch hitters in Rutschman and Santander, and a lefty in Gunnar.  I could kind of understand if it was a power thing, but Frazier doesn't provide much power at all to take advantage of RF in Camden Yards.

I just don't think Elias is going to blindly follow the Odor path with Frazier, despite the higher cost. Frazier is clearly better than Odor, and paid accordingly. But also this team is clearly more of a contender than they were for most of last year, and our AAA prospects are clearly closer to big-league ready by any standard, including Elias'. I think those factors are significant enough to tip the scales against Frazier if the status quo continues. I think Frazier's usage later this year will be more similar to Vavra's usage so far. A couple starts a week. 

I think they liked Frazier's IF/OF flexibility as insurance for a trade that never happened. And I think it was a poor move by Elias to jump the gun there. But I don't think he's going to further compound that poor move by keeping Frazier in the lineup 5x a week all year. 

Anyway, so that this actually furthers the subject of the thread, @Tony-OH you've been one of the most vocal Stowers proponents as well and I'm curious how you think they should be balancing Cowser vs Stowers in the callup/playing time battle over the next couple months. 

[interloper]

It's interesting that fans have all kind of simultaneously reached the point where they're calling for Cowser or Westburg or both. Intuitively, it's time. The pitchforks are being dusted off and sharpened as we reach 1 month of games and the prospects are lighting up AAA. 

So let's see just how different the fan timeline is from the Elias timeline. We can use Tony's thread here as Day 1. Barring injury, I usually expect Elias to be about 1 month behind fan clamoring. But like we saw with Grayson and Irvin, sometimes we get surprised. 

Edited April 26, 2023 by interloper

[Moose Milligan]

10 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

I just don't think Elias is going to blindly follow the Odor path with Frazier, despite the higher cost. Frazier is clearly better than Odor, and paid accordingly. But also this team is clearly more of a contender than they were for most of last year, and our AAA prospects are clearly closer to big-league ready by any standard, including Elias'. I think those factors are significant enough to tip the scales against Frazier if the status quo continues. I think Frazier's usage later this year will be more similar to Vavra's usage so far. A couple starts a week. 

I think they liked Frazier's IF/OF flexibility as insurance for a trade that never happened. And I think it was a poor move by Elias to jump the gun there. But I don't think he's going to further compound that poor move by keeping Frazier in the lineup 5x a week all year. 

Anyway, so that this actually furthers the subject of the thread, @Tony-OH you've been one of the most vocal Stowers proponents as well and I'm curious how you think they should be balancing Cowser vs Stowers in the callup/playing time battle over the next couple months. 

I understand where you're coming from, but these guys are more or less guaranteed starting positions with salaries like that.  I believe that's part of the negotiations for a salary like that, not only am I getting 8 million but I'm also getting 8 million not to sit on the bench, right?  Those are discussions that are had between GM, and agent and player.  It's not, hey, we're giving you an 8 million dollar deal and you'll do whatever we want...we'll bench you if we want.

To your point about our AAA prospects clearly closer to being big league ready, they were just as ready 23 games ago as they are today.  

I hope you're correct about him not being in the lineup 5x a week...like I said, I think best case scenario is that he's in the lineup 2-3 times a week and there's a platoon situation going on.

In regards to Stowers/Cowser, I think Cowser gets the nod when it comes to playing time/promotions.  Seems to be a better overall player.