Let’s assume Mateo is an .800+ OPS, 5+ WAR shortstop — now what?

[Pickles]

I think if that's the case, you have two years of team control of an All-Star level SS.  Really, we should be saying MVP caliber SS, because if he puts up an 800 OPS then 5 WAR is probably on the low end of what he would actually be worth.

I'd be looking to use him as a bridge to Holliday, and trade him after next season for pitching.

[btdart20]

(Maybe I misread your intent on the scenario) But if we can manipulate time Dr. Strange style and knew Mateo is Trea Turner-esque for the next X years...  I'd have to kick the tires on an extension for the stud.  And even if he signs, I still might trade him in a Raysian type move.

Not being a time traveler, I'd play the deck we're dealt and deal from the top.  Cash out and transfer the gains to a longer time horizon (and maybe pay the capital gains tax).  As @sevastrassaid, we can't ignore the payroll.  

[AnythingO's]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Is Holliday the O's future SS or CF.  He has the speed to do either.   Does he replace Mateo or Mullins. The O's have 15 months to figure that out.

This is the answer for me, play out the year and IF Mateo is an .800 OPS, GG SS then ME and Sig have to decide who is the future SS or CF. Mateo played some CF for SDP and with his speed cover a lot of ground out there. He could be he long term answer IF he can learn the reads and get good jumps, he has the arm.

[Alasdaire]

This might be a small sample size from a major league player in absolute terms, but it's not insignificant relative to the length of Mateo's career.

Mateo only has 841 major league PAs, 71 of which have been this year, ie 8.5%. If you include his PAs from last year, that's 72% within the past ~13 months.

Given that his OPS is 1.045 right now, he could fall off by the all-star break and still post an .800+ OPS. And at that point, this year will have constituted something like 30% of his major league PAs.

It's not like this is a career journeyman with thousands of mediocre at bats under his belt. He's an international signee who was highly touted as a prospect but traded multiple times as a minor leaguer and then again moved before even getting a full season under his belt as a major leaguer.

[Just Regular]

He's about the same as Mullins.    Enjoy 2023-2025, collect your draft pick.

If the new owners will sponsor a payroll going 5-deep or 6-deep at $20mm+, maybe you bid in the mix for his FA contract in which Year 1 is his Age 31 season.

Like Manny and Hardy, the kid might have to go somewhere else.

[HandsomeQuack]

2, and in that scenario Ortiz becomes completely expendable. Mateo remains available via trade, but it would have to be a really enticing offer (i.e., at least one young, controllable pitcher). Short of that, team is in win-now mode and has a really good SS to help with that.

[Brooks The Great]

If he's truly a 5+ WAR player, you trade him for max value because we have more controllable assets who can replace him and provide solid, if not similar, production. Not only does Mateo get more expensive more quickly than Gunnar, Ortiz, Westburg, Norby, and Holliday will, but a big part of Mateo's game is his blazing speed, which will start declining by the time he hits 27-30.

[oriole]

My choice would be to trade him after the end of the year, assuming the return is a good starting pitcher. We all know the O’s won’t be getting anyone worthwhile in FA so the draft and trades will be the only place for adding players that could potentially be difference makers. 
 

When players come out of nowhere and have an insane year (Mullins, Davis) then it’s always been a good idea to sell that magic bean while it’s still a magic bean. Because as we’ve all seen, sudden spikes in production are usually outliers in a players career. Not saying Mullins, Davis, and this dream Mateo won’t or didn’t have productive years past their outlier, but if Mateo could be traded under the guise that he is a MVP level talent, I do it every day of the week. Preferably for SP

[Gurgi]

When have the Orioles had to trade someone because of too much talent at the position?  Brian Roberts Jerry Hairston?  Its a great problem to have. 

To throw my 2 cents.  I say trade him.   However his speed is the asset that we cant replace so that might not be a great idea.  If the Orioles have a real shot at the post season keeping Mateo might be the wisest thing.  

[jabba72]

Only have Mateo for two more years after this, so I'd hold onto him. He is an all-star level player...at least in April he was. If a great offer comes along for him then the situation changes.

Holliday's going to have to wait his turn. Just fluidly adjust to the situation.

That means Ortiz and Westburg are kind of in limbo until the Frazier/Urias situation resolves itself too. 

[Aristotelian]

 I don't think I would extend him because similar to Mullins, so much of his offensive and defensive value is tied to his speed. I would do some combination of 2 and 3. The question as always with trades is what do we get in return. If someone will pay valuing him as a 5 WAR guy, trading him when Holliday is ready is probably the smart move. 

[Too Tall]

When he is playing like he is now, Mateo is a joy to watch and root for. Even though I relalize this is a "what if" exercise, several things bother me re an extension or anointing Mateo as a bridge to somewhere else.. I want to see consistency and so far there is a history of no consistency. Age. A young 28 but 28. The hip. May be nothing, but when he limped off and they said hip, images of Albert Bell flashed before me. So I want to see health and consistency this year. If he ends this year healthy and still a leader on our offense, I don't necessarilly shop, but I sure listen and if I get a reaaly good offer in a position of need, I flip. So, I guess I am also somewhere between 2 and 3. 

[Il BuonO]

Yeah, I was in favor of trading him this past off season. Now, he’ll increase his value if he continues hitting and it looks as if he just might after making a couple adjustments. He’s got good bat speed and that helps with his improved pitch recognition. 
 

I love the guy, but Baltimore has to adopt a similar operations approach to TB and that means trade him at peak value.

[wildcard]

I think the objective is for the O's to win the World Series.     That does not happen if they trade their best talent away.  So I am not in favor of trading a player like Mateo because he reach his peak value.  I want to keep him around while he is performing at a high level.   

Now for sure the contract side of things has to be considered.  But the O's still have  at least two pennant races  of team control  remaining with him until July 2024.   That will hold his value  up if he continues to play well.     

At that point the O's have to make a decision to trade him or extend him.   That means  projecting how long they think he will be a productive player and weighing that against who they have to replace him.    

Again the goal is to win the WS and keeping the O's best players as long as they can is what will make that possible.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think the objective is for the O's to win the World Series.     That does not happen if they trade their best talent away.  So I am not in favor of trading a player like Mateo because he reach his peak value.  I want to keep him around while he is performing at a high level.   

Now for sure the contract side of things has to be considered.  But the O's still have  at least two pennant races  of team control  remaining with him until July 2024.   That will hold his value  up if he continues to play well.     

At that point the O's have to make a decision to trade him or extend him.   That means  projecting how long they think he will be a productive player and weighing that against who they have to replace him.    

Again the goal is to win the WS and keeping the O's best players as long as they can is what will make that possible.

What if you trade the player for equally valuable players at positions where you need help more than at SS.