AL team to watch: White Sox

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I agree with everything above.  I just do not believe they need to spend from the top of the list.  Someone mentioned how the Dodgers frequently make people pick from deeper down the list because of how good the depth is.  I think this is what the O's do. 

Obviously they cant keep all of the guys at the top simply because of overlap, but I think they can use one or two, along with those 11-15 or deeper guys and maybe even some guys currently on the roster to add pitching.

That roster crunch is coming, but it doesn't have to be solved by the break.  We all want a TOR pitcher with lots of years left.  The reality is that guy may not be available.  

It would be a mistake to spend talent just to spend.  That would be as erroneous as riding the current roster and keeping everyone down in AAA or lower.

But that is the central challenge.  How can the Orioles allocate that talent in a way that allows them to win today...and tomorrow.

My point is that I believe most of us simply want this worked out faster than the current pace.  But as long as they are playing at the level they are playing we should be a little more patient.

I am not in the Orioles are grossly mismanaging their talent and roster camp.  But I recognize the concerns are real and only going to become more complex.  That is what good organizations want...options.

I agree with most of what you are saying. As long as you are not advocating for holding Ortiz, Westburg, Cowser, or Norby at AAA for the entirety of the season. Even DL Hall is going to be 26 next year.

It's time for us to make some hard decisions this year. They do no good to us to sit there, some of them are getting into prime years and they will begin to lose value.

Of course, I don't want DL Hall any where near the O's rotation. But either allowing him to try relief or trade him. 

The same goes for some of the others, there is no place to put Ortiz, Westburg, and Norby all on the Baltimore Orioles. Realistically, there is probably only room for one. The other two unfortunately are going to have to go.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I agree with everything above.  I just do not believe they need to spend from the top of the list.  Someone mentioned how the Dodgers frequently make people pick from deeper down the list because of how good the depth is.  I think this is what the O's do. 

Obviously they cant keep all of the guys at the top simply because of overlap, but I think they can use one or two, along with those 11-15 or deeper guys and maybe even some guys currently on the roster to add pitching.

That roster crunch is coming, but it doesn't have to be solved by the break.  We all want a TOR pitcher with lots of years left.  The reality is that guy may not be available.  

It would be a mistake to spend talent just to spend.  That would be as erroneous as riding the current roster and keeping everyone down in AAA or lower.

But that is the central challenge.  How can the Orioles allocate that talent in a way that allows them to win today...and tomorrow.

My point is that I believe most of us simply want this worked out faster than the current pace.  But as long as they are playing at the level they are playing we should be a little more patient.

I am not in the Orioles are grossly mismanaging their talent and roster camp.  But I recognize the concerns are real and only going to become more complex.  That is what good organizations want...options.

One other point…this team should absolutely try to win this year if they are in position to do it. You don’t just keep pushing off winning because it’s never guaranteed year to year.

[Bemorewins]

12 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Lift off!

[Bemorewins]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Wasting this year on exploration and experiments?   Then you must have been against Mateo.  And what would Cano be if not an experiment?   You used a bunch of ifs.  So here’s a few more.   What if Bradish takes another step forward.  What if GRod can pitch every start like the last one.  What if John Means comes back 100%?   What if bullpen has two elite closers and 4 or 5 solid setup guys?   Let’s see.  
 

Dylan Cease isn’t necessarily the magic pill between winning and losing but he might be a welcomed addition depending on a lot of stuff.

 

No I wasn't against Mateo. That was the right move at the time given where the Major League team was and where we ere as an organization. However, if they wanted to insert a high ceilinged failed prospect now into our starting lineup to see if he could figure, I would be absolutely against that. We are too good now to need to take those type of chances. Those things are for loosing teams to explore, or for teams who don't have anyone organizational in said position.

Another point that I will make as a response is that everything in life pretty much is an IF. Except for maybe stuff like the sun rising tomorrow...lol But I believe with a team like this, who has enough talent to compete for the post season, that you try to mitigate certain risk with more certainty.

Yes Cease may not ever be as good as he was last year, but what are the odds that Bradish will ever be better than him? Cease is just a much more talented pitcher. And when it comes to sports, like in the case of Mateo, I usually tend to want to bet on talent. Does Bradish next step, two steps or 3 look like Cease's season from last year? I would say the odds of that happening are very low.

I HOPE Cano will continue to be this guy for the rest of the season. And I HOPE Means can come back to form this year. But I believe that in order for us to maximize our potential for this season, we will need those things to happen ALONG with adding much better starting pitching. 

[maybenxtyr]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Haha.  This was supposed to be a regression year after the 31 game improvement last year.  Now we’re talking about unloading the farm system for a TOR pitcher.   I think that trade may have to wait until the off-season if it happens at all.   I think Elias will be quite content if this team makes the playoffs virtually as is.   Any run in the playoffs is going to depend on internal improvements from GRod, Bradish, Wells, and Kremer. Also, what John Means looks like when he comes back.  

I agree with you here. I do believe that if there's a trade that makes sense, Elias will do it. Eventually some of the prospects will either fail or be traded... it's baseball. I don't see him unloading for Cease though.

[foxfield]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

He has been about as careful as possible. He has been very long term oriented, but he has to deal with a reality which is NOW. 

1) He can no longer justify an approach that doesn't prioritize Major League winning. And not just having a winning record. The current team is much too good for that. Now the priority has to shift to competing for a World Series. And as you mentioned, he's going to have to figure out a way to get the pitching necessary in order to do that. If you won't/don't want to do that via FA, then trades are the only option. Because he did not draft ANY in the last 5 years.

2) Unless our awful ownership has a change of heart, we are now "on the clock" so to speak with Adley. We are only going to have him for 4 more years after this season. There is not really a high probability that there will be a better Orioles team in the near future that he is not apart of. So, if we punt on this season "for the sake of the future" or opt for an ultra conservative approach to talent acquisition (that IMO is almost assured to be ineffective in the postseason. I believe talent wins in the Fall, not smoke and mirrors. You simply have to have the horses). Then that will leave us with 4 more years left AND we will have the same whole in the starting rotation going into next offseason.

3) You can only slow play guys development for so long until it begins to effect the development of the guys behind them. Ortiz, Stowers, Cowser, Westburg, and Norby cannot finish this season at AAA. Why do I say that? - Because if they do, that will stifle the growth of not only them (after all Ortiz will be 25 this season and you don't see many if any 26 year old prospects). But that will mean guys like Mayo, Prieto, Kjerstad, etc can't move up and will be "stuck" at their level. There is a trickle down negative effect that is created with a logjam.

4) Then some of those "older" prospects start to lose value because other orgs begin to question "Why has he been at _____ level for so long? There must be something wrong."

5) The worse thing we can do is try to jam a bunch of top #100 guys at the ML level (where there is no place already for them to play). And try to platoon most/many of them. Again, players are loosing value being used this way. And they are loosing development by not getting enough ABs.

Elias whether he wants to or not, is going to have his hand forced a little this season because things are becoming clogged. There is no future scenario where all 9 top 100 guys or even say 6/7 remain with the Baltimore Orioles long term. 5 are at AAA and a couple will be 25 this year.

And as much as some may want to, we are not going to move offload of a guy producing the way Mateo is for a much lesser talented player in Ortiz. That holds no logic, when the Major League team is carrying the 3rd best record in the sport and he is one of the large reasons why.

I want much of the same stuff but this entire post is stack on misunderstandings.

To start with, the FAN BASE wants Elias and the Orioles to deal with NOW.  But it is not a requirement of any kind.  We can want it and we can believe it is in the best interest of the team, but that neither means it has to happen or will.

You are also simultaneously saying the job Elias is doing is so good that we have completely skipped competing for the playoffs and have moved into we must get a TOR arm to win a WS.  I agree that it will be hard to win a WS without one.  I hope that the Orioles have one soon.  I do not think it has to come by the All Star break just because I want it to happen.

There are things that can be done outside of trades if nothing materializes for the players that the O's would prefer to trade.  Santander or Hays or even Mountcastle could be non tendered.  I am not advocating for that.  Certainly guys like McKenna, Vavra and O'Hearn are going to be replaced.  All of these guys can be added in to trades as well they just are not going to return a TOR Starter.  But there is room for Westbrook, Stowers, Ortiz, Cowser and even Kjerstad.  They don't all have to be here on May 2 or else moved to the bargain bin at the deadline.

You are very elegantly and convincingly I might add, laying out a case for urgency.  But you are doing so as if it is the only possible successful path and I just don't know if it is or is not, but I do think that the Orioles do not seem to be feeling the urgency the same as you and many of us.

Also you mention the Adley window.  We do not know if he will be extended or not, but I do not know that the Orioles see his presence...even if it has as few as only three more years as being the only path to glory.  I could see him as a foundation piece of the first WS team and then have to almost want to stay.  That is total speculation, but the point is if the Orioles believe that the only chance is with Adley they have already failed by not locking him up.

Lastly, I want to say again, that while I think your primary belief that the O's MUST ACT NOW, is wrong.  I think you articulate very well the issue.  But I do hope the Orioles are stingier in making moves to increase the SP.  Maybe it does turn out to be half of the top talent.  I just don't think it needs to be.  There is a lot of talent we still dont even talk about.  Fun times.  Let's enjoy.

[foxfield]

27 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

One other point…this team should absolutely try to win this year if they are in position to do it. You don’t just keep pushing off winning because it’s never guaranteed year to year.

I think this is correct.  Winning is never guaranteed.  But I think this can be done without selling out.  We are not the Padres and have to win this year or next year or else.  If we have the third best record in baseball at the end of May....or even the 8th a couple things should be self evident.  Our needs are not exactly what we presumed in March and what is needed to prepare for a stretch run should be more defined.  And of course we still have several players that should graduate.  This likely happens even if the Orioles perform less well in May and June.

The schedule is going to get tougher and the best players are going to ultimately play themselves into bigger roles and the other guys are going to have to hold em off if they want to stay on the field.

  

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I think this is correct.  Winning is never guaranteed.  But I think this can be done without selling out.  We are not the Padres and have to win this year or next year or else.  If we have the third best record in baseball at the end of May....or even the 8th a couple things should be self evident.  Our needs are not exactly what we presumed in March and what is needed to prepare for a stretch run should be more defined.  And of course we still have several players that should graduate.  This likely happens even if the Orioles perform less well in May and June.

The schedule is going to get tougher and the best players are going to ultimately play themselves into bigger roles and the other guys are going to have to hold em off if they want to stay on the field.

  

There is nothing wrong with acquiring long term assets even if they fall out of contention.

The idea that you just keep holding and wait is wrong. There is, without question, a roster issue. Now, it’s a good issue to have right but it is an issue and it’s one that you need to solve before it solves itself in a negative way.

That is something they should “be in a hurry” to do.(the process should have already started)

Edited May 2, 2023 by Sports Guy

[foxfield]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

There is nothing wrong with acquiring long term assets even if they fall out of contention.

The idea that you just keep holding and wait is wrong. There is, without question, a roster issue. Now, it’s a good issue to have right but it is an issue and it’s one that you need to solve before it solves itself in a negative way.

That is something they should “be in a hurry” to do.(the process should have already started)

I do not disagree with anything here other than the idea that the process should have already started.

I think everyone agrees we missed an opportunity to be better set up over the winter.  But the process is actually occurring before our eyes.  It just doesn't move at the pace that we always want.  

Decisions are coming and a roster crunch of players is going to eventually make it impossible to keep every one.   But everyone doesn't just mean the kids in AAA.  It means, Hays, Santander, Urias, Frazier etc.  Obviously, McKenna, O'Hearn and Vavra are not long term guys.  But I am happy we didn't give the SS job to Ortiz to start the year.

Decisions are coming, but the options are plentiful and that is good.

[Bemorewins]

15 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I want much of the same stuff but this entire post is stack on misunderstandings.

To start with, the FAN BASE wants Elias and the Orioles to deal with NOW.  But it is not a requirement of any kind.  We can want it and we can believe it is in the best interest of the team, but that neither means it has to happen or will.

You are also simultaneously saying the job Elias is doing is so good that we have completely skipped competing for the playoffs and have moved into we must get a TOR arm to win a WS.  I agree that it will be hard to win a WS without one.  I hope that the Orioles have one soon.  I do not think it has to come by the All Star break just because I want it to happen.

There are things that can be done outside of trades if nothing materializes for the players that the O's would prefer to trade.  Santander or Hays or even Mountcastle could be non tendered.  I am not advocating for that.  Certainly guys like McKenna, Vavra and O'Hearn are going to be replaced.  All of these guys can be added in to trades as well they just are not going to return a TOR Starter.  But there is room for Westbrook, Stowers, Ortiz, Cowser and even Kjerstad.  They don't all have to be here on May 2 or else moved to the bargain bin at the deadline.

You are very elegantly and convincingly I might add, laying out a case for urgency.  But you are doing so as if it is the only possible successful path and I just don't know if it is or is not, but I do think that the Orioles do not seem to be feeling the urgency the same as you and many of us.

Also you mention the Adley window.  We do not know if he will be extended or not, but I do not know that the Orioles see his presence...even if it has as few as only three more years as being the only path to glory.  I could see him as a foundation piece of the first WS team and then have to almost want to stay.  That is total speculation, but the point is if the Orioles believe that the only chance is with Adley they have already failed by not locking him up.

Lastly, I want to say again, that while I think your primary belief that the O's MUST ACT NOW, is wrong.  I think you articulate very well the issue.  But I do hope the Orioles are stingier in making moves to increase the SP.  Maybe it does turn out to be half of the top talent.  I just don't think it needs to be.  There is a lot of talent we still dont even talk about.  Fun times.  Let's enjoy.

First, I in no way believe that ANYTHING that I want/suggest effects/sways Elias in any way. The man doesn't even know that I exist...lol

Second, I am not expecting nor advocating for a trade now. That is not realistic, as the next window to negotiate trades isn't until the Summer. Who makes serious trades in baseball in May? Like ever.

Third, I am glad you are not advocating for non-tendering Hays, as he has been one of our best offensive players this season. I would like to move him to RF when Cowser comes up, but in no way would I think it would be reasonalbe to expect to have a prospect out produce is present performance.

I would hate for us to non-tender Mountcastle. He is okay but has run into some bad luck this season, like last year. However, I don't think it is optimal to have someone like him hitting behind Adley. He far too frequently get's himself out with men on base.

We are already well establish in the playoff conversation. Despite Elias efforts last year or the lack thereof (which I agreed with), the team "competed" for a playoff spot last year. I don't believe personally, that anything is gained by simply trying "to get to the playoffs". You should either be rebuilding or trying to win a title. Being in-between gets you stuck and nowhere fast. Just ask the other professional sports franchise in town how that worked out for them?

Also, I don't believe that there is any realistic scenario where we win a World Series without very good starting pitching coming through the AL as it is presently constructed. We would have to upset a lot of teams. I believe that we have WAY TOO MUCH org talent to be content with being underdogs/overachievers. Maybe that was ok for the last group of decent Orioles teams from 12-16 but we are in a better position organizationally (at least from a talent perspective now). That team/org never had more than top 100 prospects at one time. We currently have 9! Including the possibility of 3 straight years of back-to-back-to-back #1 prospects in the game. That in end and of itself is unheard of!

The urgency is not here now just yet, but it definitely will be by season's end. If the stay status quo and leave Ortiz, Hall, Westburg, Norby, and Cowser down at AAA all season. They will have created 2 serious and unnecessary problems. We will have serious 40 man roster issues AND some of our top 100 guys will lose value. You don't see many 26 year old prospects ever. WHY? - Because they are guys at the peek of their athletic prime at that point, dominating much younger players. Is that really impressive? Would you like to try to be a GM selling the idea of acquiring a bunch of 25/26 year old players on a bad team who is 2,3,4 years away? By the time that team get's good those guys will be nearing 30 and arg-eligible. It's not how the business of baseball goes.

Next, based on everything that our awful owner has done, it appears that he is unwilling or uninterested in extending Aldey or really spending any real money period. How else do you interrupt the things that he has said?

Lastly, I am enjoying this very much and hope to do so even more once October comes and we have the necessary starting pitching talent in order to compete.

PS - There is not a single trade that we can make that can take away "half our talent". We simply have WAY TOO MUCH talent for that to be close to true. Trading 4 top 100 guys still gives us 5 left! That's more than every other team not named the Dodgers and Guardians. Btw, most trades will probably require 3 at most. I believe that's what the Padres gave up to get Soto.

[maybenxtyr]

I wonder how this thread plays out at the end of May if they're sitting at .500?

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I do not disagree with anything here other than the idea that the process should have already started.

I think everyone agrees we missed an opportunity to be better set up over the winter.  But the process is actually occurring before our eyes.  It just doesn't move at the pace that we always want.  

Decisions are coming and a roster crunch of players is going to eventually make it impossible to keep every one.   But everyone doesn't just mean the kids in AAA.  It means, Hays, Santander, Urias, Frazier etc.  Obviously, McKenna, O'Hearn and Vavra are not long term guys.  But I am happy we didn't give the SS job to Ortiz to start the year.

Decisions are coming, but the options are plentiful and that is good.

Right.,we agree they messed up in the offseason..ie when this process should have started.

[interloper]

It's May 2. Trades for pitchers of any real caliber will not happen until at least June most likely. So much can happen in 1-2 months. Let's just see what's up at that time.

[maybenxtyr]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

It's May 2. Trades for pitchers of any real caliber will not happen until at least June most likely. So much can happen in 1-2 months. Let's just see what's up at that time.

Exactly. They could be.500 at the end of May. That would certainly change whether or not they trade for a rental, or someone that can help for multiple seasons. There will definitely need to be some moves between now and next season...they just don't need to happen while riding a 10 game over high on the first month of the season.

[Rbiggs2525]

There are players the Orioles will have to start making decisions on soon or lose them to rule 5. Elias is smart and knows that. Some of the one year guys will also fall off the 40 man as well. We have to be patient as a fan base. The orioles do not need to shop in the bargain outlet unless it is Eduardo Rodriguez. Besides that I want, Cease, Alcantara, Lezurdo, Burnes, Bieber.