Today's Baseball Reference Scenario Projects O's vs. Indians in Final AL Six

[LA2]

Most Likely Playoff Scenario:
BYE: TBR, HOU
CLE vs. BAL
TOR vs. NYY

https://email.stathead.com/baseball-reference-newsletter-5/1/23?ecid=ACsprvtb3Q7wAbiSqFIyNfnilsEuHtoDSYryJZp9uBRDrbdgNvveJGmt23WmmvluIH0Gt-iajyLP&utm_campaign=Baseball Reference Newsletter&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=256473248&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_lfp0V5YTGasecJA8HjSFsSlR5bV2CJo3A5OPp7UoqyqOL6fkome2Pw9D2HWrbVwoYNM28C3SaAoYF_-0X-MGI5Xn9zg&utm_content=256473248&utm_source=hs_email

[eddie83]

They have an odd Formula.  Use last 100 games going back to last year. 
 

I would sign up for that right now. 

[Spy Fox]

I noticed that they have this scenario as most likely despite projecting the O's to go 67-67 the rest of the way (ok, technically 66.6-67.4).

At 10 games over, .500 ball the rest of the way lands us where the Rays finished last year 86-76 in the 6th seed. 

I think it will take more than 86 wins this year, but all these "banked wins" do matter quite a bit.

Edited May 2, 2023 by Spy Fox

[sportsfan8703]

We're just in such a tough division.  I'm not willing to concede that yet.  Way too early.  But this is a very likely scenario and should give us an idea of what we need to acquire to actually compete in a series.  

[interloper]

Crazy as Tampa has been this year, we still only have 3 more losses than them. 

We play the 7-win Royals while they play the 20-win Pirates, so maybe we can make up some ground. 

Edited May 1, 2023 by interloper

[Bemorewins]

I want to say this and I apologize for saying this or something similar in multiple threads. But I don't like our odds against a team like CLE. We simple don't have enough starting pitching. As a matter of fact, we don't have enough starting pitching to be ANY of those teams.

If you think we do, go look at the talent of their projected starters in any series and then look at ours. Other than Grayson (and if you think that Means could come right in and pick up where he left off pre-injury) what else do we have? Wells is decent. But I want no parts of Bradish, Kremer, or Gibson starting in the postseason. Those are very long odds at best.

The rest of the team is TOO GOOD to waste by bringing a knife to a gun fight. We have to raise our post season ceiling through talent acquisition in the form of frontline starting pitching.

[Moose Milligan]

33 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I want to say this and I apologize for saying this or something similar in multiple threads. But I don't like our odds against a team like CLE. We simple don't have enough starting pitching. As a matter of fact, we don't have enough starting pitching to be ANY of those teams.

If you think we do, go look at the talent of their projected starters in any series and then look at ours. Other than Grayson (and if you think that Means could come right in and pick up where he left off pre-injury) what else do we have? Wells is decent. But I want no parts of Bradish, Kremer, or Gibson starting in the postseason. Those are very long odds at best.

The rest of the team is TOO GOOD to waste by bringing a knife to a gun fight. We have to raise our post season ceiling through talent acquisition in the form of frontline starting pitching.

I remember thinking we had no chance in a series against Verlander, Scherzer and Price.  But hey, that's why you play the games.

[Bemorewins]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

I remember thinking we had no chance in a series against Verlander, Scherzer and Price.  But hey, that's why you play the games.

I remember that too very well. But I wouldn't want to enter into a post season with those kind of long odds. We don't have to. In 2014, that is the very best team that we could field (minus the injury to Machado and the suspension of Davis). In 2023, we can acquire talent to put us on par with ANY team. And then still have plenty of prospects left over.

Going into a post season series with Bradish, Kremer, Gibson, etc as starters is extremely unnecessary now when we can do much better. Or should I say we can acquire a top end starter without altering our future negatively in any serious way. 

[Yossarian]

What about guys like Graham Ashcraft if Cincinnati or Luis Castillo in Seattle?  They are stuck on teams that don't seem to be trending toward the playoffs and might be looking to be moved. 

[Frobby]

44 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I want to say this and I apologize for saying this or something similar in multiple threads. But I don't like our odds against a team like CLE. We simple don't have enough starting pitching. As a matter of fact, we don't have enough starting pitching to be ANY of those teams.

If you think we do, go look at the talent of their projected starters in any series and then look at ours. Other than Grayson (and if you think that Means could come right in and pick up where he left off pre-injury) what else do we have? Wells is decent. But I want no parts of Bradish, Kremer, or Gibson starting in the postseason. Those are very long odds at best.

The rest of the team is TOO GOOD to waste by bringing a knife to a gun fight. We have to raise our post season ceiling through talent acquisition in the form of frontline starting pitching.

At the moment, I agree with you.  But, I also want to see how our pitching progresses over the next couple of months.  I do think we many need a top line starter, but I also want to see how our guys come along.  

[Moose Milligan]

3 hours ago, eddie83 said:

They have an odd Formula.  Use last 100 games going back to last year. 
 

 

I like it.  Performance from year to year matters.

[LA2]

Who will be this year's Joe Saunders for the Orioles?

You have to think that deep in DL Hall's mind is the fantasy that this is his mission: to develop finally into the pitcher he can be and pluck a few pivotal wins. We shall see.

We assume, of course, that Means wants to be a hero too, but will his recuperating arm give him the chance?

[Just Regular]

A 3-game series is such an odd duck.    Your top 3-4 relievers can throw half your innings for 72 hours.

Your third best length pitcher is basically irrelevant unless you make Week 2.

Grayson beats McKenzie 10-0, then Bieber beats Bradish 10-0.     What happens next?

[Aristotelian]

4 hours ago, Yossarian said:

What about guys like Graham Ashcraft if Cincinnati or Luis Castillo in Seattle?  They are stuck on teams that don't seem to be trending toward the playoffs and might be looking to be moved. 

Ashcraft is a free agent in 2029, no way is Cincinnati trading him. See where they are in 2027 or so. I do think Seattle could be a team to watch. Then again they could easily win their division.

[eddie83]

7 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

I want to say this and I apologize for saying this or something similar in multiple threads. But I don't like our odds against a team like CLE. We simple don't have enough starting pitching. As a matter of fact, we don't have enough starting pitching to be ANY of those teams.

If you think we do, go look at the talent of their projected starters in any series and then look at ours. Other than Grayson (and if you think that Means could come right in and pick up where he left off pre-injury) what else do we have? Wells is decent. But I want no parts of Bradish, Kremer, or Gibson starting in the postseason. Those are very long odds at best.

The rest of the team is TOO GOOD to waste by bringing a knife to a gun fight. We have to raise our post season ceiling through talent acquisition in the form of frontline starting pitching.

CLE isn’t hitting so far this year. Last year when they played TB they didn’t hit vs them in playoffs. 
 

On paper I agree we would not match up vs any of those teams. On paper.