A Realistic Pitching Ace And What It Will Take to Acquire Him

[Il BuonO]

2 hours ago, purplepittabread88 said:

how long until Means comes back? and do we view him as high 2? or is he good enough to be a 1

I’ve never thought of him as more than a mid rotation guy. Heavily dependent on the success of his CH. Without it he’s mediocre. 

[Bemorewins]

6 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

Oh for sure. You basically have to trade prospects in order to contend in baseball.

What I'm saying is that we had a pretty significant influx of talent last year, but it's not clear who they are yet. Beavers/Fabian/Wagner could make Cowser/Kjerstad more expandable than they are now, but that's a tough call to make when they're just out of college. McDermott/Povich/Cano/Johnson have been in the minors, but that's not the same as having them under the team's supervision.

They probably have a pretty good sense for the trajectory of guys like Basallo or Mayo even though they're young, because they've been working with them for a few years now. But the group from last year still seems like an unknown.

A lot of things COULD happen. But I know what IS HAPPENING NOW, is that we have an opportunity to start a multi-year post season run, IF we acquire better starting pitching.

Mayo is still a couple of years away (at best a year and a half) and Basallo longer than that. There is no need to hold up the potential success of the Major League team to wait on anything or anyone. There are no guarantees that come with future seasons, no matter who is on the roster. This team has a chance to do something if staffed properly. We have every other aspect that you need, except anything resembling a starter that you can rely on to pitch a Game 1 or 7.

[EddeeEddee]

Just now, Il BuonO said:

Henderson, DL Hall, Cowser and maybe a MLer like Santander or Hays.

Yeah I think that's pretty close though I'm guessing they'd at least ask for Holliday over Cowser, maybe would want Hays but not Santander (too close to FA) and would ask for another player outside the Top 10 prospects.  

[EddeeEddee]

19 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

I’ve never thought of him as more than a mid rotation guy. Heavily dependent on the success of his CH. Without it he’s mediocre. 

Well, Johan Santana would have been pretty mediocre without his changeup too. Not saying Means has the changeup Santana had, but just saying.

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, EddeeEddee said:

Yeah I think that's pretty close though I'm guessing they'd at least ask for Holliday over Cowser, maybe would want Hays but not Santander (too close to FA) and would ask for another player outside the Top 10 prospects.  

Again nobody is getting Holliday and Henderson for ANYBODY let alone Dylan Cease. If you need context I would suggest looking at what the Nats got for Soto and lower that price a littl.

In no world is Dylan Cease more valued in the game that Juan Soto was. Just look at their resumes. As a matter of fact, just look at Cease non 2022 seasons, including this current one.

Now on to a realistic price for Cease, I think it's possible that they ask for one of Gunnar or Holliday certainly, and we will have to give them another one or two top 100 guys. I don't see us parting with Gunnar OR Holliday and then turning around and giving them Cowser too. Cowser is currently a top 35 guy and soon to be top 30 guy. That's simply too much for Cease. Maybe if it was Alcantara, I think that would be realistic. But not Cease. 

And by the way, what incentive would the O's have to pay that ridiculously high asking price? I assure you that no one else in the game can offer anything anywhere near that. 

[sevastras]

10 hours ago, Frobby said:

What makes you think Holliday is a better fielding SS than Henderson?

Draft status, DUH! (Is duh a word that people know anymore or am I the old man yelling at the cloud from the Simpsons)?

It amazes me to no end the amount of people wanting to either send Henderson down or trade him after a month of his rookie year. I would trade Westburg, Ortiz and Hall before I would consider trading Gunnar. I don’t think I would trade Henderson straight up for Cease and I don’t think they would do the trade either. 

[Alasdaire]

15 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

A lot of things COULD happen. But I know what IS HAPPENING NOW, is that we have an opportunity to start a multi-year post season run, IF we acquire better starting pitching.

Mayo is still a couple of years away (at best a year and a half) and Basallo longer than that. There is no need to hold up the potential success of the Major League team to wait on anything or anyone. There are no guarantees that come with future seasons, no matter who is on the roster. This team has a chance to do something if staffed properly. We have every other aspect that you need, except anything resembling a starter that you can rely on to pitch a Game 1 or 7.

I wonder if the front office views this year as genuinely within the window of contention. Elias has said they do, but if you watch how they act and not what they say, the lack of money spent this offseason makes me think they don't. All I'm saying is maybe they're giving the prospect hierarchy some time to shake itself out now that it's as stacked as it ever will be.

[EddeeEddee]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

Again nobody is getting Holliday and Henderson for ANYBODY let alone Dylan Cease. If you need context I would suggest looking at what the Nats got for Soto and lower that price a littl.

In no world is Dylan Cease more valued in the game that Juan Soto was. Just look at their resumes. As a matter of fact, just look at Cease non 2022 seasons, including this current one.

Now on to a realistic price for Cease, I think it's possible that they ask for one of Gunnar or Holliday certainly, and we will have to give them another one or two top 100 guys. I don't see us parting with Gunnar OR Holliday and then turning around and giving them Cowser too. Cowser is currently a top 35 guy and soon to be top 30 guy. That's simply too much for Cease. Maybe if it was Alcantara, I think that would be realistic. But not Cease. 

And by the way, what incentive would the O's have to pay that ridiculously high asking price? I assure you that no one else in the game can offer anything anywhere near that. 

Bemore, you're missing the point.  We're talking about who the White Sox would ask for in their initial ask.  You have a starting point in a negotiation and then work toward an agreement.  It's that way in any industry.  No doubt The Nats asked for quite a bit more than they got when they were haggling with teams for Soto.  I'd be curious who was in their initial ask when they were talking to the Padres.  And like I've said when chatting with you before, the White Sox need to a bit crazy in their ask because a) they're terrible and b) someone might be desperate enough to bite.  And I don't think Soto is a good comparison because Soto is a position player.  Without looking it up I'd say elite starters that are affordable rarely become available mid-season.  

[Winter]

So now there will be a weekly trade the entire farm for Cease thread like there was for Lopez? 

[Bemorewins]

Just now, Alasdaire said:

I wonder if the front office views this year as genuinely within the window of contention. Elias has said they do, but if you watch how they act and not what they say, the lack of money spent this offseason makes me think they don't. All I'm saying is maybe they're giving the prospect hierarchy some time to shake itself out now that it's as stacked as it ever will be.

Maybe so? But when it comes to pro sports I don't believe that it is every prudent to punt on in-season opportunities for future possibilities. There are just too many unpredictable variables, like injuries and regression that can cause setbacks, especially when we are talking about about of guys who have NEVER done it before.

I don't really see a rational reason not to trade and add a significant piece. We have more than EVERYONE else and we have no places to play everyone as is. We have FIVE guys alone at AAA that are top 100 guys and at least 3 are ready to come up right now. We don't even have the spaces to add those 3 let alone anyone else. But what we do have is a BIG GAPPING HOLE in the rotation.

[sevastras]

25 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

I’ve never thought of him as more than a mid rotation guy. Heavily dependent on the success of his CH. Without it he’s mediocre. 

He was the number 1 for the bad Os teams but I doubt anyone really viewed him preTJ as an ace or true number 1. He would probably the best pitcher on the team again if he comes back were he left off but that is hoping for a lot. 

[Bemorewins]

10 minutes ago, sevastras said:

Draft status, DUH! (Is duh a word that people know anymore or am I the old man yelling at the cloud from the Simpsons)?

It amazes me to no end the amount of people wanting to either send Henderson down or trade him after a month of his rookie year. I would trade Westburg, Ortiz and Hall before I would consider trading Gunnar. I don’t think I would trade Henderson straight up for Cease and I don’t think they would do the trade either. 

I LOVE Gunnar and believe in his talents. But if he is the ONLY way that we can acquire an ace I would consider it. For me it has nothing to do with his early season struggles. I expected them as almost all recent top prospects including Adley, JRod, and Witt Jr struggle when first acclimating to the Bigs.

Me considering trading Gunnar as part of a package for an ace has more to do with Holliday and other prospects that can fill in at 3B like Westburg or long term Mayo. Neither is as talented/good as Gunnar but the drop off from Gunnar to them is not nearly as far as the drop off from a true ace like Cease to what we have now.

Also, I don't think Westberg, Ortiz and Hall have the value of Gunnar. Gunnar entered the season as the top prospect in the game. None of those other guys is even top 50.

[Bemorewins]

7 minutes ago, Winter said:

So now there will be a weekly trade the entire farm for Cease thread like there was for Lopez? 

There is no such thing as 'trade the entire farm' with the current Orioles. This farm is WAY TO DEEP for that. 

We have NINE top 100 prospects and a tenth to take the ninth's place on the list once he graduates. A trade for an ace might cost you what 3 prospects from that top 100 list? There are only TWO teams in the sport who have more than six, the Dodgers and Guardians. I think our future will be secure if we only have six top 100 guys to work with. Or even five for that matter.

I guess it depends on what you value more, the possibility for greater Major League success or Minor League accolades/rankings/future stock pile.

[Alasdaire]

Just now, Bemorewins said:

Maybe so? But when it comes to pro sports I don't believe that it is every prudent to punt on in-season opportunities for future possibilities. There are just too many unpredictable variables, like injuries and regression that can cause setbacks, especially when we are talking about about of guys who have NEVER done it before.

I don't really see a rational reason not to trade and add a significant piece. We have more than EVERYONE else and we have no places to play everyone as is. We have FIVE guys alone at AAA that are top 100 guys and at least 3 are ready to come up right now. We don't even have the spaces to add those 3 let alone anyone else. But what we do have is a BIG GAPPING HOLE in the rotation.

For what it's worth, I personally don't want the O's to go all in. Ever. If it becomes obvious we can't grow our own pitchers, obviously we'll need to package some prospects because of our budgetary constraints. But if the price isn't right, then I hope they wait as long as necessary until it is. I like having options and hope for the future.

I would rather be like the Ravens where they're consistently in the hunt and hope that things break their way for a title run at the right time. That's a matter of preference as some people would rather mortgage everything for the best shot.

The front office is obviously aware that we will need starting pitchers to truly contend. But I'm fine with them waiting until the right deal materializes.

[Camden Yards]

We definitely need to look at the American League Central as a possibility to get a starter.

Cease 

Bieber (extremely consistent)

ERod (affordable long term contract)

Singer (why so bad this year)

What would it take to get EROD?