Ohtani Rental?

[bpilktree]

1 hour ago, clapdiddy said:

That would be awfully tough to pull off with the amount of money Rendon is owed.  What were they thinking with that contract?

They were thinking they were getting the guy that had averaged 5.5 WAR over the previous 3 years with a .300+ average in all three years 28 homers 108 RBI and OPS around .950 and still under 30 years of age.  He had a solid first year during Covid but now can’t stay on the field and nit been good when he has been probably for lack of at bats and timing.  

[TommyPickles]

Would you do Cowser for Ohtani, straight up?

 

Not saying I necessarily would, but curious what people think. Sounds a bit crazy, at a glance, but let's say they won a Pennant for the first time since 1983. Ohtani cracks like 5 homers in the postseason. Would it be worth it?

[tntoriole]

46 minutes ago, foxfield said:

If we could get the second half of the season from Ohtani, that we got from Reggie that year we might win it all. 
 

Looking up to see if memory serves…lol

It does. Held out early only played 134 games. Hit 27 HRs drove in 91. He wanted to stay.  His year in Baltimore was the year before Eddie. It was a good team. 

We easily could have signed him. 
 

"That's not the way it was," Reggie said. "I wanted to stay. I liked the team. I liked the city. My mom was there. My dad was close by. I had other family close by. And I loved playing for Earl. When I got there, he told me, 'You know I like guys who can hit the ball over the fence, Reggie.' And I said to him, 'Earl, I can do that.'"

 

"Baltimore would have been a really good place for me," he said. "Really good lineup. Best pitching in the league. And they were good on fundamentals the way we'd been in Oakland. Get 'em on, get 'em over, get 'em in. But the way Earl liked best once we did get 'em on was with homers. I only played 134 games that year once I got there, still hit 27 dingers and knocked in 91."

 

"During the season, I made them an offer," he said. "One point five million for five years, average salary of $300,000, which would have made me the highest-paid player at the time. Then I wanted them to throw in $30,000 a year over the length of the contract for my mom, and $30,000 for my dad. So the total value would have been $1.8 million over five."

 

“They waited too long to make up their minds," he said. "And then once I had played out my option, the offers started to come in. The Expos offered me the most money, a deal for a million a year, but I didn't want to play there. Ted Turner came after me hard. But in the end, I signed with the Yankees for five years and three million. Mr. Steinbrenner threw in a Rolls-Royce."

Reggie paused and said, "It was my time, and I was gonna get paid."

 

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/reggie-jackson-1976-orioles

 

 

 

Edited July 16, 2023 by tntoriole

[oriole]

30 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

There’s probably a better chance of a meteor hitting  Earth between now and then. You do know who our awful owner is?

I should probably mention it was tongue in cheek, I have absolutely no expectation of something like that. But nor do I think that Elias is the type to undo years of prospect hoarding and tanking for 2 months of a player, even if it’s Babe Ruth 2.0

 

31 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But then you don't get him for the remainder of the seasons and someone you might be competing with in the playoffs does.  Let's say he's worth 3 wins over in house options over the rest of the year.  You add three wins to the Orioles' tally and you might get a divisional title.  You certainly greatly increase the chances of hosting the WC series.

 

I’m a believe it when I see it kinda guy. Elias hasn’t done anything to show he is ready to make an earnest push for a deep playoff run. He has done his job extremely well thus far and it’s looking like somehow the O’s are an actual honest good to great team. But until I see him actually do something bold, it’s all fantasy. 
 

Granted, since we’re playing fantasy…I understand your point about if it’s not us, it’ll be them. But the move reeks of desperation and will cut down on future teams and I think the mindset here is that they want a large window of contention. Moving multiple top-10 prospects from one of the best farms in the game sounds like the kind of move you make if your window is small. I’d opt for the larger period of competition personally. Let the Yankees get him for 2 months. It won’t stop the rest of the team from looking flat. 

 

 

 

[Sanity Check]

22 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And the O's prospect list is extremely position player heavy.  Assuming Grayson isn't available what pitcher can the O's offer that would really entice a team?

Bingo!!!

[Bemorewins]

Just now, TommyPickles said:

Would you do Cowser for Ohtani, straight up?

 

Not saying I necessarily would, but curious what people think. Sounds a bit crazy, at a glance, but let's say they won a Pennant for the first time since 1983. Ohtani cracks like 5 homers in the postseason. Would it be worth it?

Of course a World Series would be worth it, but you don’t get the benefit of foresight when making trades. 

I wouldn’t want to part with Cowser for such a limited window. Unless we reach a World Series, that kind of trade is likely to be very inequitable in terms of value. They would be getting at least 6 seasons of Cowser where we get 2 months plus the postseason of Ohtani. 

Even if Ohtani is his usual great self through the postseason, they are likely to make out like bandits from a total WAR perspective during the duration of each player’s tenure. That’s why I say that of deal would have to be viewed as World Series or bust. 

However, I have a question for you, why do we have to give up a player line Cowser to obtain Ohtani? Stated another way who can and has the will to offer something comparable for such a short window of time?

I think we may be better served offering a few more less highly touted but still talented players from our deep prospect reservoir. Or using those pieces to go after someone else.

I would hate to lose Cowser, Kjerstad, Holliday, or Mayo chasing one singular championship. We are likely going to need those players as key cogs to make a multiple championship chasing type of run. The way our starting pitching talent is set up, our key to being an elite team both now and in the projectable future is by having a very good to elite offense.

[Sanity Check]

10 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

Would you do Cowser for Ohtani, straight up?

 

Not saying I necessarily would, but curious what people think. Sounds a bit crazy, at a glance, but let's say they won a Pennant for the first time since 1983. Ohtani cracks like 5 homers in the postseason. Would it be worth it?

no

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, oriole said:

I should probably mention it was tongue in cheek, I have absolutely no expectation of something like that. But nor do I think that Elias is the type to undo years of prospect hoarding and tanking for 2 months of a player, even if it’s Babe Ruth 2.0

 

 

I’m a believe it when I see it kinda guy. Elias hasn’t done anything to show he is ready to make an earnest push for a deep playoff run. He has done his job extremely well thus far and it’s looking like somehow the O’s are an actual honest good to great team. But until I see him actually do something bold, it’s all fantasy. 
 

Granted, since we’re playing fantasy…I understand your point about if it’s not us, it’ll be them. But the move reeks of desperation and will cut down on future teams and I think the mindset here is that they want a large window of contention. Moving multiple top-10 prospects from one of the best farms in the game sounds like the kind of move you make if your window is small. I’d opt for the larger period of competition personally. Let the Yankees get him for 2 months. It won’t stop the rest of the team from looking flat. 

 

 

 

I'm not strongly advocating for an Ohtani trade.

But I don't think it would be a sign of desperation if they did, I think it would be the type of bold move that has a decent shot at paying off.  Similar to the Andrew Miller move which I still don't regret in the least.  You don't know what next year will bring.  If you are in position to win a title in a given year you have to at least take a close look at anything that will increase your chances.

 

[CaptainRedbeard]

Ohtani probably improves the Orioles’ chances of winning the World Series this year by about 3% (3 percentage points). By Fangraphs they are currently 3.1%, but IMO Fangraphs is low on the Orioles so it’s probably more like 6% currently (about what they have for the Astros, Rangers and Blue Jays right now). The Dodgers and Rays are at 12%. I don’t adding Ohtani puts us on par with their rosters, but if you’re being really generous maybe it’s more like a bump of 3-6%. 

Do 6+ years of control for multiple top 100 prospects improve our chances of winning a World Series by more than 3-6% over those 6+ years?  I’d say they almost certainly do. 

[Sanity Check]

The answer will always depend on who we had to give up to get him, and without knowing that answer, I'm not sure anyone can evaluate whether it's worth it.

[Bahama O's Fan]

37 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

It is certainly not definitive that “we have the best set of prospects”. That statement is very debatable. The LA Dodgers just 2 days ago (when I last checked) had more top 100 prospects than us. I believe they had 9 which beat our 8 on MLB’s top 100 prospect list.

Sorry, should have said "one of the best"

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Ohtani probably improves the Orioles’ chances of winning the World Series this year by about 3% (3 percentage points). By Fangraphs they are currently 3.1%, but IMO Fangraphs is low on the Orioles so it’s probably more like 6% currently (about what they have for the Astros, Rangers and Blue Jays right now). The Dodgers and Rays are at 12%. I don’t adding Ohtani puts us on par with their rosters, but if you’re being really generous maybe it’s more like a bump of 3-6%. 

Do 6+ years of control for multiple top 100 prospects improve our chances of winning a World Series by more than 3-6% over those 6+ years?  I’d say they almost certainly do. 

First let me say I am not really advocating for an Ohtani move.

But I disagree with your assessment (or Fangraph’s assessment) of the Dodgers and Rays rosters. I believe that we are better than the Dodgers now. Of course they have the better starting pitching, but IMO our offense is better than their’s and they don’t have a back of the bullpen better than ours. As far as the Rays go, if McClanahan is out for the season or even a long period of time, and we were to acquire a player like Ohtani IMO we would absolutely be better than them and most likely surpass them in the standings.

I believe that Ohtani would make us favorites to reach the World Series. Now beating ATL (even with him) that’s another story.

[TommyPickles]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

First let me say I am not really advocating for an Ohtani move.

But I disagree with your assessment (or Fangraph’s assessment) of the Dodgers and Rays rosters. I believe that we are better than the Dodgers now. Of course they have the better starting pitching, but IMO our offense is better than their’s and they don’t have a back of the bullpen better than ours. As far as the Rays go, if McClanahan is out for the season or even a long period of time, and we were to acquire a player like Ohtani IMO we would absolutely be better than them and most likely surpass them in the standings.

I believe that Ohtani would make us favorites to reach the World Series. Now beating ATL (even with him) that’s another story.

I agree. Even though the future is super bright for the O's, this season may present one of our best opportunities to win the AL, based on a variety of issues/injuries affecting other teams right now and our own relative lack of injuries. 

I don't think that means we have to get Ohtani, but I think the front office should be aggressive this year.

[TopGunnar]

I don’t want to kill anybodys dreams but I’d say the odds we trade for Ohtani are less than 1%. Unless, it’s a package that includes a few prospects from our 10-20 range. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, TopGunnar said:

I don’t want to kill anybodys dreams but I’d say the odds we trade for Ohtani are less than 1%. Unless, it’s a package that includes a few prospects from our 10-20 range. 

Sure, I think Elias is too risk adverse for that type of move even if ownership OK'd the cost. 

I also think the cost would be higher due to the lack of attractive pitching prospects.