TT: Hyde's bullpen management is going to sink this team unless he changes

[Roy Firestone]

it wouldnt hurt if our starters when at 0-2 or 1-2 finish the batter off...instead of throwing non competitive pitches ...and raising their pitch count...Grayson is a culprit.But so is Gibson and Kremer...pitch to contact...if your stuff is good enough, take your chances...except pitching to Aaron Judge.

[waroriole]

One thing I hate about his bullpen usage is that he’ll let a guy start an inning, give up a hit, and then pull him. Either give the new reliever a clean inning or let the previous guy work out if trouble. Agreed with whoever said he’s managing every game like Game 7 of the WS. If he keeps this up, we won’t have any relievers to use in the WS. 

[SteveA]

Agree 100% on using Akin/Baumann/Voth for just one inning  so often being a major problem.   I go back to the Shohei Ohtani game I was at, where Voth came in, had a perfect inning when we were down by a ton, then came out after that one inning.   We ended up using 4 relievers to close out a game we were 99% sure to lose instead of maybe just Voth + 1 reliever.   The next night we had a decent sized lead but had no one available and had to use Cano, I think in the 9th just because we didn't have other bodies.   Then we had a bunch of close games and the next thing you know Cano had gone something like 4 times in 5 days with some of them being multiple inning appearances.   And a lot of that could have been avoided if back on the Monday game Hyde had just let Voth go 3 instead of 1 inning.

[Tony-OH]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Sure but I bet those in game decisions are made with the data he is given and conversations they have.

I don't doubt that. who knows, maybe one of the coaches has an IPAD and is getting odds of success sent to him by some sigbot nerd telling him when to make pitching changes. 

At the end of the day, like a ships captain who has a GPS telling him where to go, ultimately it's his decision to make. If it's not, that's sad for baseball.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't doubt that. who knows, maybe one of the coaches has an IPAD and is getting odds of success sent to him by some sigbot nerd telling him when to make pitching changes. 

At the end of the day, like a ships captain who has a GPS telling him where to go, ultimately it's his decision to make. If it's not, that's sad for baseball.

I think you hit on the head here. I think it’s just too much data.

I know I may seem to be pushing back on this but I agree that he doesn’t let these guys pitch enough innings, I just don’t think it’s his decision or, at least, he’s being fed so much data and knows what the higher ups want, that he goes with it.

The data is great and it’s important to have but I do think it goes too far at times.

[seak05]

Analytics would say don’t send a starter through a lineup a third time, which probably has something to do with why the starters get pulled early. As @Frobbypointed out, that’s pretty standard league wide, and doesn’t really explain the bullpen usage.

I sort of doubt it’s sig/data driven either, given that the other analytics heavy organizations don’t do it. Otoh if they didn’t like it you’d think they’d have a conversation with him.

Regardless of who is to blame, this is my single biggest long term worry with this team right now.

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, seak05 said:

Analytics would say don’t send a starter through a lineup a third time, which probably has something to do with why the starters get pulled early. As @Frobbypointed out, that’s pretty standard league wide, and doesn’t really explain the bullpen usage.

I sort of doubt it’s sig/data driven either, given that the other analytics heavy organizations don’t do it. Otoh if they didn’t like it you’d think they’d have a conversation with him.

Regardless of who is to blame, this is my single biggest long term worry with this team right now.

As Frobby pointed out, his usage of his starter's seems to be the norm for the most part, but what's also obvious is that he's using too may relievers each game to cover those innings vs either using a bulk reliever or guys who can consistently cover two innings. 

I'm a big believer in using bulk relievers in games where the team is up of down by 4 or more. 

[Tony-OH]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think you hit on the head here. I think it’s just too much data.

I know I may seem to be pushing back on this but I agree that he doesn’t let these guys pitch enough innings, I just don’t think it’s his decision or, at least, he’s being fed so much data and knows what the higher ups want, that he goes with it.

The data is great and it’s important to have but I do think it goes too far at times.

This I agree with 100%!

[seak05]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

As Frobby pointed out, his usage of his starter's seems to be the norm for the most part, but what's also obvious is that he's using too may relievers each game to cover those innings vs either using a bulk reliever or guys who can consistently cover two innings. 

I'm a big believer in using bulk relievers in games where the team is up of down by 4 or more. 

Agree

[Spy Fox]

Tony thanks for this well-researched post. I have been posting that the concern over Hyde's bullpen overuse is overblown, but this lays out a good case. And I agree with you that smarter use of the multi-inning guys is where the solution lies. 

Relatedly, it looks like they're doing a bullpen game today and I hope that's a 1 time thing. With off days Thursday and Monday and bullpen game today, they don't need a 5th starter until May 10. I hope and suspect that a real SP from AAA, Irvin as the most likely candidate, will be entering the rotation at that point. 

[bpilktree]

I think the data shows going 1 inning is better for the long term and maybe the new thing in baseball.  A few years ago the Rays tried the opener thing and old the old school guys said you can’t do that you will destroy the pen or mess up with the starters.  Then that became the new hot thing.   Like I have said in another post we are used to being behind every other team in things but now we seem to be ahead of them in new philosophy.   We currently sit with the 2nd fewest guys on the disabled list with a total of 7 players only behind Cleveland and the fewest missed games by those guys on the year.  In 2022 we were first in fewest players on DL and second fewest in games missed behind Cleveland.  Maybe us and Cleveland have been just lucky but I think the fact the same two teams are at top tells you it is philosophical approach to it.  

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

 

I'm a big believer in using bulk relievers in games where the team is up of down by 4 or more. 

It would help if our relievers actually kept our lead at 4 runs or more.  I can think of several games this year where we had a sizeable lead and the middle relievers simply didn’t get their job done.   Luckily I can only think of one game (game 2 in Boston) where we actually lost after having a big lead, but I can think of a whole bunch where we either coughed up most of the lead, or even lost a big lead and then had to come back to win.  And in most of those games, there was a middle reliever who I expect Hyde hoped would go 2+ innings, but failed at his job, and we ended up using 4-5 relievers instead of 1-3.   

[Frobby]

46 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Part of the issue I've seen is the second that bulk reliever gets in a little trouble, he gets yanked which requires a series of relievers to now be used. I understand that concern in close games, and the Orioles have played a lot of close games, but I do not like when Hyde consistently is using 4 relievers to finish off a game in which he was once up by five runs. 

Maybe Baumann would be more consistent in a long man role where he gets three days between appearances vs the inconsistent roles he's been put in this year.

I agree with this comment, for the most part.   I just wish we had more games where the bulk reliever just got his job done.  What irritates me more than anything is when we’re up 5+ runs and a reliever starts walking guys.  I couldn’t believe it when Baker walked the 8th hitter to start the 7th inning last night. I’d rather see the guy hit a solo homer than see that, to be honest.  

[bpilktree]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Brandon "Capt Hook" Hyde definitely loves to take guys out the second they run into trouble. That includes starter's from the 6th inning on and relievers.

The Orioles have used their relievers in 197 games, topped only by Miami's 198. The closest AL East team is Tampa at 185 games. The Orioles bullpen have blown a league leading 12 save opportunities (tied with 6 other teams). The Orioles use their relievers for an average of 17 pitches, tied for second lowest behind only the Mariners and Blue Jays at 16.

Now obviously sometimes it just makes sense because a guy does not have it and need to come out. And the starter's inability to pitch much past 90-95 pitches effectively very often is a problem as well. 

But my biggest problem is Hyde's use of 3, 4 or even 5 pitchers to get through 3+ innings of normal work a game.

Now, the Orioles are carrying three guys in Voth, Akin and Baumann that should be able to provide length but he rarely brings them in and let's them eat more than two innings. In an 8-3 game, why couldn't Akin pitch the last three innings in that game last night. If Akin can't go three innings without allowing five runs he doesn't belong in the big leagues.

The Orioles have six relievers who have pitched in 23 or more of the team's 55 games. A quick look around the AL East for relievers with 23 or more games shows:

Tampa - 1
NY - 3
Tor - 3
Bos- 0

Last night Gibson did not do his job and it was frustrating to watch, and it might have been the right call to have Baker come in an get that final out. But once he did, he should have gone to Akin to eat innings. Instead Baker struggled, then Coulombe struggled and he ended up having to use Cano for 1.1 innings and Bautista is a game the team was up 8-3 when the starter left the game.

So first off, Hyde needs to expect more from his starters and leave them out there longer when he can. I don't know whether it's a Hyde thing or an organizational thing, but they just don't let their starter's go much past 95 pitches.

Starts with more than 95 pitches or more:

Bradish - 0 (most 94 pitches and only one other start over 90 pitches)
Kremer - 2 of 11 starts (3 exactly at 95 pitches, 1 over 100)
Wells - 7 or 11 (3 at 95, 2 at 96, 2 over 100)
Gibson - 7 of 12 (3 at 95, 3 at 96, only 1 over 100)
Rodriguez - 2 of 10 (1 over 100)

Now I glanced around and keeping starter under 100 pitches seems to be more of the norm, but one, those starters are getting deeper into games and when they don't, most team seem to have those bulk relievers that will eat up some innings. 

This comes back to Hyde's usage of Voth, Baumann and Akin.

Akin was the most misused as a situational lefty vs a bulk reliever this year. Akin has been used in 15 games at the major league level and only pitched 13 innings while only pitching two or more innings one (exactly 2 innings). 

Voth, who has proven he takes awhile to warm up and should not be brought into mid inning situations when he has to warm up quickly, has pitched 26.1 innings in 18 games. But, he's only pitched 3 or more innings (bulk reliever appearance) in one game this year and was exactly at 3 innings. In 12 of his 18 appearances he's pitched in less than 2 innings of work.

Baumann has pitched 27.2 innings but in a whopping 24 games. He's pitched two or more innings only 4 times. He was really overused in mid-April when Hyde ran him out there 5 times in 11 days for 7.1 innings. He then allowed ten runs over his next 8.1 innings over 9 appearances.

Obviously Cano and Bautista have been the two best relievers but they are being used a ton. Baker has been used a ton too.

Bautista and Baker leads the team with 26 appearances which is tied for 3rd most appearances in the MLB with only Cleveland's closer Emmanuel Clase being the only closer with more appearances at 27 (though he's thrown one less inning than Felix).

Cano 29 innings is the 11th most in MLB with most above him being bulk relievers. Only Justin Lawrence and Scott McLough have pitched in more games with more innings.

Unless Hyde changes his ways or all of the Orioles relievers show they all have rubber arms, we're going to start seeing relievers melt down. We've seen this at times with Baumann, Baker (who has been the most abused) and now Coulombe. Even Cano has not looked as sharp though some regression was expected there.

If Hyde would just use his bulk relievers in games for three innings with 4 or more run leads or down 4 or more, it would help alleviate some of these problems in my opinion. 

 

 

Do we have more guys getting more appearances though because our guys have been healthier then other teams?  Just looking at numbers we have used the least number of relievers.  
 

Yankees 21 pitchers 8 starters and 13 relievers

Red Sox 21 pitchers 7 starters 14 relievers

Rays 28 pitchers    8 starters 20 relievers( they are hard to get exact numbers because of using openers at times)

Blue Jays 16 pitchers 5 starters 11 relievers. (Their 5 starters have not missed a start)

Orioles 17 pitchers 6 starters 11 relievers.  
 

Our starters don’t go as deep as some teams and we haven’t used as many relievers as those teams so the guys we do use have to pitch in more games then others if they are having guys hurt or sending them down for ineffectiveness.  

[SilverRocket]

I agree generally that this is going to be unsustainable and that the length guys should be pitching multiple innings more. But given today's plan of Akin opening and Voth following up, last night's decisions make a lot more sense. This was bad timing with Cole Irvin having been up-and-down and needing to stay down for 10 days.

There's some obvious upside with this year's usage: we have one of the best bullpen ERAs, and we're winning games and outperforming the pythagorean expectation by a lot. This can't last all year, but I wonder if it was a conscious decision for Hyde to use more bullets early while Givens and Tate weren't here, thinking they'll take on the load once they're back. Unfortunately Tate seems to still be unhealthy, and maybe Givens too given his velocity being 2mph down from last year.