Tyler Wells 2023

[wildcard]

The only service time manipulation that occurred with Wells is when the O's decided to option him instead of put him on the Injury List.    Players that are optioned don't get MLB service time while in the minors.   Players on the MLB injury List do get major league service time.    The O's were completely within their righties to pick either path.

Wells began the 2023 season with 2 years of service time.   In order to get 3 years of service time he had to spend 172 days out of 186 days in a full season on the major league roster.    Wells was optioned on July 30.   After he spent 14 days in the minors he was not going to reach 3 years of MLB service time in 2023.  Thus the O's have already gotten another year of team control for him.

However as a super 2 to could qualify for arbitration in 2023.   The top 22% of players with 2 years of service time become super 2s.     Players qualifying  are determine at the end of the season.  In 2022 the cut off was  128 days.    So if Wells spend less than 58 days in the minors he has chance to become a super 2 and get arbitration rights this year.

 

Edited August 20, 2023 by wildcard

[Malike]

Considering how badly this team needs Wells to be the guy he's been all year long, I really doubt they are playing service time games with him. If he had continued to be one of our top 2 starters, he never would have been sent anywhere. Something was going on, though, he was bad, and they are trying to fix it.

[FlipTheBird]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

The only service time manipulation that occurred with Wells is when the O's decided to option him instead of put him on the Injury List.    Players that are optioned don't get MLB service time while in the minors.   Players on the MLB injury List do get major league service time.    The O's were completely within their righties to pick either path.

Wells began the 2023 season with 2 years of service time.   In order to get 3 years of service time he had to spend 172 days out of 186 days in a full season on the major league roster.    Wells was optioned on July 30.   After he spent 14 days in the minors he was not going to reach 3 years of MLB service time in 2023.  Thus the O's have already gotten another year of team control for him.

However as a super 2 to could qualify for arbitration in 2023.   The top 22% of players with 2 years of service time become super 2s.     Players qualifying  are determine at the end of the season.  In 2022 the cut off was  128 days.    So if Wells spend less than 58 days in the minors he has chance to become a super 2 and get arbitration rights this year.

 

They didn’t put him on the injured list because he’s not injured. He’s just totally out of sync and needs work, and that work is going to have to come from pitching in games.

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, FlipTheBird said:

They didn’t put him on the injured list because he’s not injured. He’s just totally out of sync and needs work, and that work is going to have to come from pitching in games.

Tired arm is considered an injury.

[FlipTheBird]

12 hours ago, wildcard said:

Tired arm is considered an injury.

They clearly view it less as tired arm and more as something that needs to be pitched through in a controlled manner.

[Frobby]

Wells pitched a scoreless inning for the Tides tonight. 14 pitches, 9 strikes, 1 hit, no K’s. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

We have the Statcast data now that he’s in AAA and it doesn’t look like he had any significant bump in velo by shifting to working 1 IP.  He averaged 92.9 mph on his fastball. 

As a RP in 2021 he averaged 95.2 mph. Hard to imagine him being as effective a RP as he was then without finding another tick or two.

[Malike]

6 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

We have the Statcast data now that he’s in AAA and it doesn’t look like he had any significant bump in velo by shifting to working 1 IP.  He averaged 92.9 mph on his fastball. 

As a RP in 2021 he averaged 95.2 mph. Hard to imagine him being as effective a RP as he was then without finding another tick or two.

He's always gotten outs at that velo. The issue is his command, likely.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Wells pitched a scoreless inning for the Tides tonight. 14 pitches, 9 strikes, 1 hit, no K’s. 

Good to see Wells can be a difference maker this September out of the bullpen. 

[now]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Wells pitched a scoreless inning for the Tides tonight. 14 pitches, 9 strikes, 1 hit, no K’s. 

Yeah but when you watch that inning, you see a solid single to start the inning, then a bomb that Kjerstad just gathered in at the warning track. Another foot or two, and instead of a clean inning it's a blown save (and yet another homer). There was another deep drive to left, just foul, that Stowers made a good running catch on for an out.

[survivedc]

2 hours ago, Malike said:

He's always gotten outs at that velo. The issue is his command, likely.

He’s also given up a ton of homers at that velo. I’d way rather the 2021 number.

[Malike]

2 hours ago, survivedc said:

He’s also given up a ton of homers at that velo. I’d way rather the 2021 number.

Correct, see what you quoted, please. The issue is his command. You can and he has all year gotten people out with 92.

[CaptainRedbeard]

His command is very important, his fastball has good spin rate and shape and, especially considering his high release point, can be effective up in the zone without premium velocity. He doesn’t need premium velo to be an effective MLB pitcher if his command is there. But more velo means more margin for error, and you get away with a lot more 95 mph fastballs catching the middle of the plate that have been finding the seats for Wells when they come in at 92.

I had hoped that moving him to the bullpen would allow us to see the 2021 Wells, when he was a strong back end RP. He may yet build some velo back up, that was his first outing as a 1 IP RP. But if he’s got the same velo that he did as a SP this year I’m not optimistic that he’s going to be significantly more effective as a RP.

2021 Wells could be an 8th inning guy for this team, but I don’t think that’s the Wells we’ll get without the 2021 Wells 95+ mph fastball. 

[Jim'sKid26]

2 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

His command is very important, his fastball has good spin rate and shape and, especially considering his high release point, can be effective up in the zone without premium velocity. He doesn’t need premium velo to be an effective MLB pitcher if his command is there. But more velo means more margin for error, and you get away with a lot more 95 mph fastballs catching the middle of the plate that have been finding the seats for Wells when they come in at 92.

 

Is this true? At the major league level is there really a measurable difference between a middle-middle FB at 92 vs. 95? I ask this because I don't know and I have never seen data to support your claim. Most MLB hitters are going to barrel both of those pitches pretty consistently unless they are fooled. I would say pitching in the middle of the plate is a bad idea regardless of whether you are 92 or 95. 

[Just Regular]

I went back to the splits to see if memory good, and 2012 Pedro Strop is a season I hope might be kind of similar.

As he did with nuggets (and would later do with Brach), Buck burned them out.     Early 2012 Strop was excellent.

His monthly ERA splits for 2012: 2.08, 0.66, 0.96, 1.64

Here he is 3rd in ERA among all MLB relievers through July 31:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=1000&ind=0&startdate=2012-04-01&enddate=2012-07-31&season1=&season=&stats=rel&sortcol=16&sortdir=asc&team=0&pagenum=1

And then he crashed - 4.09 and 6.48.

Even Buck went away from him for awhile, and eventually he had a couple good outings against the Yankees in the ALDS.

Hopeful '23 Wells isn't all used up, but we'll see.