Keep AAA stat inflation in mind when looking at our prospects

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Any thoughts on why the inflation?  Juiced ball?  More hitter friendly ballparks?  An .800 OPS in Norfolk used to mean a lot. Most certainly in Ottawa and Rochester. 

Last year the average OPS in the International League was .750, so that’s a huge jump to .796 in a single year.  I don’t know why.  The Eastern League, for example, was at .728 last year, and is still .728 this year.  The AL is up from .701 to .721.   That’s significant, but nowhere near what’s gone on in the IL.

The Pacific Coast League, always hitter friendly, has gone from .804 to .837.  

Edited June 22, 2023 by Frobby

[Ridgway22]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Better, younger and less expensive.

And we have a BINGO!

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Malike said:

We're 8th in the league in runs scored. 

By “the league,” I guess you mean MLB?  We are 4th in the AL in runs/game.  

[Orioles0615]

So what do they have to do then? Or should they just stay down there so we can get off to BA prospect rankings 

[Baltimorecuse]

43 minutes ago, Frobby said:

By “the league,” I guess you mean MLB?  We are 4th in the AL in runs/game.  

The "league" has changed meaning in my lifetime.  I believe it now refers to all 30 teams.  

[Hallas]

Harbor Park has typically played like a fairly severe pitcher's park, with its park effects usually in the .90-.95 range.  While we should keep in mind AAA stat inflation, the effects for hitters should be less severe for our AAA squad because of the hitting environment.

 

I recognize that making a blanket statement regarding hitting environment isn't going to tell the whole picture, so you still have to delve into a more detailed analysis for individual players, but on the whole I'm a bit more inclined to believe in the hitters' performances at Norfolk.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Hallas said:

Harbor Park has typically played like a fairly severe pitcher's park, with its park effects usually in the .90-.95 range.  While we should keep in mind AAA stat inflation, the effects for hitters should be less severe for our AAA squad because of the hitting environment.

 

I recognize that making a blanket statement regarding hitting environment isn't going to tell the whole picture, so you still have to delve into a more detailed analysis for individual players, but on the whole I'm a bit more inclined to believe in the hitters' performances at Norfolk.

Fair point. Here’s some data:

 

[Birdland in NC]

Ramon Urias, Frazier and Santander are better ball players than Westberg, Ortiz and Kjersted.    We are looking to win playoff games, definitely want them in the lineup.  

[EddeeEddee]

15 minutes ago, Birdland in NC said:

Ramon Urias, Frazier and Santander are better ball players than Westberg, Ortiz and Kjersted.    We are looking to win playoff games, definitely want them in the lineup.  

I don't think anyone is suggesting Kjerstad is ready, and I don't think that many are suggesting Urias should be replaced (he could remain as the super utility infielder).  It's more about if Ortiz and Westburg are really ready to replace Mateo and Frazier and when Cowser should be promoted since there is no current need for a left-handed bat in the outfield (at least not until Hicks comes back to earth).

[emmett16]

8 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t think it’s that unusual for older guys who have had ML experience to have big AAA seasons.

Also, how is Harbor Park playing this year? It’s usually a pitcher friendly park. Do we have any park factors for this season?

If the wind isn’t blowing the ball flies.  If the winds blowing, it typically blows in off the water and kills fly balls.  Seems like it’s much easier to hit in day games as wind will often pick up throughout the day. 

[Filmstudy]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’ve just been looking at the International League batting stats.  The average hitter there has a .796 OPS this year.   Of players with at least 69 PA, there are 19 guys with an OPS over 1.000.   Another 20 have an OPS over .900.   So, it’s a really favorable offensive environment there in 2023.

32 of the 39 players who are over .900 have had some playing time in the majors.  19 of the 39 are 26+ years old.  You’ve got guys like Jake Cave and Franchy Cordero OPSing over 1.000 down there.   

So, that’s why the O’s are looking at more than the stat sheet when they consider who’s ready for a promotion.  
 

Legitimate issue for sure in a 5.72 runs/game environment.

Does this mean we need to cut some slack for the pitching prospects at Norfolk?

[Filmstudy]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’ve just been looking at the International League batting stats.  The average hitter there has a .796 OPS this year.   Of players with at least 69 PA, there are 19 guys with an OPS over 1.000.   Another 20 have an OPS over .900.   So, it’s a really favorable offensive environment there in 2023.

32 of the 39 players who are over .900 have had some playing time in the majors.  19 of the 39 are 26+ years old.  You’ve got guys like Jake Cave and Franchy Cordero OPSing over 1.000 down there.   

So, that’s why the O’s are looking at more than the stat sheet when they consider who’s ready for a promotion.  
 

Legitimate issue for sure in a 5.72 runs/game environment.

Does this mean we need to cut some slack for the pitching prospects at Norfolk?

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, Filmstudy said:

Legitimate issue for sure in a 5.72 runs/game environment.

Does this mean we need to cut some slack for the pitching prospects at Norfolk?

Our pitchers have the second best ERA in the International League, so yes.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Our pitchers have the second best ERA in the International League, so yes.  

They don't have to face our hitters.

[Malike]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

By “the league,” I guess you mean MLB?  We are 4th in the AL in runs/game.  

Correct, the MLB.