Twin Twins series

[Just Regular]

We have all our Minnesota games on the year starting tonight and next weekend before the All-Star break.    It still feels here like AL6 is the most likely seed if we get one, and even though Cleveland is tied with them now as they have squandered a shot at a wire to wire cakewalk, they are probably still at least 50/50 to host AL6 to start the tournament.

Orioles get home field in the first of the two series - SP matchups with AL Active Roster K-BB standing among today's 67 guys with 20 minimum innings like Cole Irvin:

(38) Kremer v. (7) Pablo            Pablo's ERA has inflated to almost the same number as Kremer's entering tonight.

(34) Bradish v. (23) Ober

(43) Irvin v. (35) S. Gray

B-Ref's Wins Above Average rates them MLB's best pitching staff year to date, which I guess fits with being able to sell Danny Coulombe in spring training.

The Bats haven't been as good...there WAA sees the MIN standing among the 30 teams:

Up the Middle: 9th at Catcher, 15th at 2B, 19th at SS, 23rd in CF

Corners/DH: 14th at 1B, 14th at 3B, 23rd in LF, 20th in RF, 13th in DH

At Catcher, their 0.2 WAA number is same as BAL, thanks to better depth than we have.    Byron Buxton has been DH only, and it has worked as far as helping him stay in the lineup nearly full time.

In the last few days, high school SS and 1-1 Royce Lewis has only just crossed the 130 PA threshold to get off prospect lists about a week out from the 6TH anniversary of his draft year.     Let's hope it doesn't take Jackson Holliday until 2028 to do that, but injuries can happen.

They have had an off day to recover from getting swept in Atlanta by a super hot Braves team.

[Frobby]

Despite their 40-42 record, the Twins actually have a slightly better Pythagorean record (44-38) than the O’s do (42-37).   They’re a relatively weak hitting team (95 OPS+) with good pitching (116 ERA+).  The O’s are the opposite (108 OPS+, 98 ERA+).   

The Twins are a respectable 10-13 vs. the AL East this year, so I’m not expecting them to be any kind of a pushover.  They’re a better team at home than on the road, so it would be good to take this weekend’s series.
 

[waroriole]

Why would AL6 be our most likely seed? It would be my preferred wildcard seed as we get the weakest 1st round opponent. Do they reseed after the first round? If not, it also helps us avoid AL1 until the ALCS.

I get there’s still half a season to play, but it’s kinda disrespectful to assume the team whose 4 up on AL5 would be fortunate to get AL6  

 

[Just Regular]

22 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Why would AL6 be our most likely seed? It would be my preferred wildcard seed as we get the weakest 1st round opponent. Do they reseed after the first round? If not, it also helps us avoid AL1 until the ALCS.

I get there’s still half a season to play, but it’s kinda disrespectful to assume the team whose 4 up on AL5 would be fortunate to get AL6  

 

Just not counting chickens before they are hatched.    The team looks good.

They could, but I don't yet expect these Swirvin Irvin Orioles to beat HOU or NYY across 162 games.    Do you?

[waroriole]

18 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Just not counting chickens before they are hatched.    The team looks good.

They could, but I don't yet expect these Swirvin Irvin Orioles to beat HOU or NYY across 162 games.    Do you?

I’m not expecting anything. Just saying, I see no reason yet to say we should be happy with the last wildcard, other than getting the worse team. 

[Moose Milligan]

Fully expecting that this is where the wheels start coming off.  

[glenn__davis]

7 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Fully expecting that this is where the wheels start coming off.  

I've expected that like 5 times so far this season and the wheels are still on.  The team has been resilient for sure.  

It would sure be great to get an early lead for once.

[glenn__davis]

Did not realize this but Arnold said the Os are 6-21 against the Twins the last 5 years. 

[banks703]

Today is the start of what is going to be a meteoric slide back to reality. They’re going to lose to Gray tomorrow to be swept at home by the Twins. 
 

Four in NY, who are down right now and the O’s played well there a few weeks back but they are of course the Yankees. 
 

Three more next weekend in Minnesota. 
 

It’s VERY real and possible that they could be on a 10+ game slide heading into the All-Star break. 
 

They’ve waited too long to do something about terrible middle relief, and worse, the extremely underwhelming offense. Someone else posted it in another thread, with the July schedule, falling all the way back to .500 is very real.
 

Pitiful.  

 

 

 

[Baltimorecuse]

We've scored 1 run in two games.  I don't think anyone could have hit Ober today.  

Last night was a different story.  We just sucked.  

 

 

[Baltimorecuse]

What I can't figure out is why anyone thought the Twin series wouldn't be tough.  We're going to face another under  3 ERA Sunday.  That will be matched on our side with a disaster waiting to happen.  

I've heard it said pitching is two thirds of baseball.  We're going to see a lot of this month.  

[Billy F-Face3]

I'm normally an upbeat person, but I'm also pragmatic. I will be pleasantly surprised if they can find a way to win on Sunday, because I don't see how they beat Sonny Gray. He's been lights out and contending for the Cy Young. It will take a miracle where Gray has a bad day to beat him, or get to the bullpen fast enough that they can score some runs against the bullpen. 

We will also be on a lineup handicap because our 9 hitter is purely a defensive player. Anything we can get from the 9 spot will be a bonus. That becomes even more so if Mateo and Bemboom are in the same lineup together. Then it would be the 8 and 9 spots we have to hope aren't a black hole.

Sonny Gray vs Cole Irvin does not inspire much confidence.

[Moose Milligan]

7 hours ago, glenn__davis said:

Did not realize this but Arnold said the Os are 6-21 against the Twins the last 5 years. 

Feels about right. 

 

1 hour ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

I'm normally an upbeat person, but I'm also pragmatic. I will be pleasantly surprised if they can find a way to win on Sunday, because I don't see how they beat Sonny Gray. He's been lights out and contending for the Cy Young. It will take a miracle where Gray has a bad day to beat him, or get to the bullpen fast enough that they can score some runs against the bullpen. 

We will also be on a lineup handicap because our 9 hitter is purely a defensive player. Anything we can get from the 9 spot will be a bonus. That becomes even more so if Mateo and Bemboom are in the same lineup together. Then it would be the 8 and 9 spots we have to hope aren't a black hole.

Sonny Gray vs Cole Irvin does not inspire much confidence.

Gray's FIP is pretty much in line with his ERA.  He's having a great season.

[SteveA]

And the Orioles remain the major league team that has gone the longest without being swept, no matter how many times our fans declare that we are going to be swept.

Still haven't been swept since before Adley came up last year

[Just Regular]

That comeback feels a bit like barely escaping Milwaukee unswept, but going to Yankee Stadium next series is different than coming home to the Royals.    

We do kind of get a break the Yankees rainout in STL on Friday forced them to play a doubleheader yesterday.    It is also Gerrit Cole's turn this afternoon ahead of the 4-game series, and there have been reports the Carlos Rodon MLB debut will be held to Friday right after we leave town.