Astro's Model?

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Aglets said:

We all hope we are going to follow the Astros model.

Unfortunately we have more recent information coming directly from ownership.

https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-john-angelos-next-tampa-rays-astros-20230222-bv6efmtr2zdgtnaktropjm7e4u-story.html

Our owner has said he hopes we are the next Tampa.  Or Cleveland.  Or Milwaukee.

Now what to do those teams all have in common?  Let's be generous and say they all tend to be in the lower half of team salaries.

Also, the Brewers and Rays have never won a WS and the Guardians have one of the longest championship droughts in sports.  I wish someone had followed up with him on that in that interview. 

Not trying to throw cold water on everyone's parade but I think it's important we all work from the same shared set of facts.

I wish it was different.  But until we see evidence to the contrary I think it's important we take these words from Angelos seriously.

The Brewers and Guardians have been around league medianish $90-$130M range. That's not necessarily a bad thing. Astros have been in or near the top group after the big rebuild, but I wouldn't expect that in our near future and I'm not sure I'd even want that long term. 

Don't get me wrong, I detest JA and hope the Orioles sell without moving. 

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, Aglets said:

We all hope we are going to follow the Astros model.

Unfortunately we have more recent information coming directly from ownership.

https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-john-angelos-next-tampa-rays-astros-20230222-bv6efmtr2zdgtnaktropjm7e4u-story.html

Our owner has said he hopes we are the next Tampa.  Or Cleveland.  Or Milwaukee.

Now what to do those teams all have in common?  Let's be generous and say they all tend to be in the lower half of team salaries.

Also, the Brewers and Rays have never won a WS and the Guardians have one of the longest championship droughts in sports.  I wish someone had followed up with him on that in that interview. 

Not trying to throw cold water on everyone's parade but I think it's important we all work from the same shared set of facts.

I wish it was different.  But until we see evidence to the contrary I think it's important we take these words from Angelos seriously.

The bolded portions of your statement are my greatest concern. We underwent an unprecedented period of loosing for 5 consecutive years. We did not need to do that if the goal was simply to develop a "winning team" (a team that wins more games than in loses in most seasons, but is not really a serious World Series contender).

My assumption and maybe I was wrong was that the reason that you are willing to entertain such an "extreme" measure was because the franchise had something bigger in mind, like going on a multi-year championship contention run like the Houston Astros have been on.

However, as you correctly stated Angelos' goal appears to be to set the bar as low as possible so that there are no expectations/pressure on him to provide the type of aide/assistance/financial resources that will be needed to support having a multi-year run of contending for World Series banners.

What concerns me the most for the health of the franchise and it's viability in the community, is that IF our fanbase is any kind of reflection of many on this message board, MANY people are ok with this. "It's okay if we never spend much, continue 'the rebuild' indefinitely through the 'pipeline', as long as we have a nice young team that wins more than it loses."

The probably with setting (what IMO) is a pretty low bar (just be the good but never good enough MIL, CLE, Tampa) is if you are not careful you will actually get there and be stuck in the middle. As a resident in this market place, I have seen this not work well over the long haul for the other professional sports franchise and how they have begun to pivot from this strategy as they understood the dissatisfaction of their fans and how long term they say it was not going to be a great business strategy/model for them.

The sport of baseball in general has an older fan base and has FINALLY started to take measures to attract younger fans. Like it or not may young people do not consume sports like us older people have (and some still do). They are not watching 2-4 hour games daily on television. Many of them consume the highlights on social media. Many of them are not loyal to ANY institution (academic, religious, entertainment, business, familial, etc.). To believe that they are going to simply support and be loyal to the team/laundry is a mistake IMO. They root for players/personalities. For those who are fans of the other pro team in town, look at how many MORE fans that the team has (not just locally but nationally and globally) since a certain star quarterback came to town.

Another thing to consider is that, this generation (unlike any previous) has a constant stream of access to information at their finger tips at all times. They are not going to be uninformed about ownership apathy or lack of spending/support. Steve Bisciotti (who by any metric has been a superior owner in every way to the Angeloses) took a ton of heat when it appeared that the Baltimore Ravens were not going to resign their marquee star player. When some fans see an owner who is not willing to invest and the team is not in serious championship contention, they simply turn their attention to the million other entertainment options that we all have in the modern world.

I know some people do not care about the viability of the franchise in the community or what happens to the team long term in terms of it's standing in this market place/community. But I go back to the A's, Rays, Guardians, etc; there is a reason regardless of the wins and losses that they all have small fan bases and attendance figures consistently. And there is a reason that the Astros and Padres NOW have larger fan bases and attendance figures when they were once considered "small markets". 

Ownership/organizational leadership matters. I fear with what we have in place at the top of our org, no matter what Elias/Sig do, it will never be enough. Hopefully, one day soon the Angelos plague will no longer be an impediment to the Baltimore Orioles success. 

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

What is the "Astros' Model?" Has it ever been well defined?

Just because Elias is a former Astros' executive is he obligated to follow that model?

Is the aforementioned model the right one for this franchise?

It seems rather possible that a team can win by blazing their own trail to success. 

I hope we are following the Orioles model and not following a model that doesn't necessarily fit our circumstances. No square pegs in round holes, please.

Good points.

But I hope that the outcomes are something similar

[Frobby]

The key to sanity as an Orioles fan is: “do not covet thy neighbor’s players.”  Drooling over potential free agent and trade targets leads to disappointment almost 100% of the time.  The actual moves the team makes are almost always (1) lower profile than fans want, (2) moves that never even got discussed as possibilities around here.  

So, to keep sane, expect and hope for nothing, and be pleasantly surprised if and when some needle-moving deal actually happens some day.  
 

Edited July 14, 2023 by Frobby

[25 Nuggets]

If the Orioles are following the Astros model, their next step is identifying which young players they want to extend and extending them to sizeable contracts.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

What is the "Astros' Model?" Has it ever been well defined?

Just because Elias is a former Astros' executive is he obligated to follow that model?

Is the aforementioned model the right one for this franchise?

It seems rather possible that a team can win by blazing their own trail to success. 

I hope we are following the Orioles model and not following a model that doesn't necessarily fit our circumstances. No square pegs in round holes, please.

Their model is the right one for any franchise.

[interloper]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Yankees appear to be leading in the Ohtani bidding. 

Ha! That would make their farm system an absolute desert and not really move the needle for them this season. So I say go for it, Yanks. 

[deward]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

He came from an org that doesn’t do that. The Rays don’t do that. The Braves don’t do that. These have been arguably the 3 best organizations in the sport, along with the Dodgers, for the last several years.

 

The Braves traded for Matt Olson and then immediately signed him to an 8yr/$168M contract extension. Do you think they don't sign Olson in free agency for the same money if he was available and willing? Different situation, but same vein, I suspect the Astros would have signed Altuve to his 7yr/$163M extension as a free agent if he would have taken it. Both teams are willing to give out nine figure deals, they're just (rightfully) very picky about when and who, and not generally playing at the top of the market. It's obviously easier to execute that approach if you can develop and extend your own stars, instead of having to pursue premium outside help. 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, deward said:

The Braves traded for Matt Olson and then immediately signed him to an 8yr/$168M contract extension. Do you think they don't sign Olson in free agency for the same money if he was available and willing? Different situation, but same vein, I suspect the Astros would have signed Altuve to his 7yr/$163M extension as a free agent if he would have taken it. Both teams are willing to give out nine figure deals, they're just (rightfully) very picky about when and who, and not generally playing at the top of the market. It's obviously easier to execute that approach if you can develop and extend your own stars, instead of having to pursue premium outside help. 

I have no idea if the Astros do that. I think why Altuve has meant to them means a lot for the purposes of that extension. He means nothing to them if he’s coming in as a FA.

As for Olson, maybe. He is from the area, so that helps with that but they also traded a lot for him, so maybe they felt obligated to keep him moreso than if he had been a FA.

[Malike]

As was pointed out earlier in this thread, there is a far greater chance of the Orioles acquiring Ohtani as a rental than of us ever signing him as a free agent. The Orioles could likely beat any offer to get his services for the rest of the season. Should they? I don't think so, you'd be sending a ton of talent away for a sure rental, and that doesn't guarantee a WS win.

[btdart20]

I feel hood winked!  I thought it was a model question but turns out to be an Ohtani question!

To focus on the model: 

Astros is a good comp for the rebuild itself.  The focus on draft slotting, building the pipeline, gearing up the analytics, and international scouting/development department.  One other thing they've done that we haven't realized yet (because we're so new to the international build-out) is developing international signees into key players (especially pitchers).

But we're transitioning to a "keep the lights on" ongoing business model phase.  Every team has constraints of various kinds.  A big one is revenues/budgets.  Like Aglets shared, Houston's business model isn't where we're heading (city size and corporate structure are much stronger in Houston and Atlanta for that matter).  On the flip side, GMs in bigger markets are nearly always on the hot seat to prove they are being competitive through FA signings.  That's a constraint that Elias doesn't currently have.  Our budgetary constraints will be more like Tampa or Cleveland but with a higher ceiling IMO.  I do think we can be in spitting distance of league average though.  But we're still in the early phases of this transition out of the rebuild.  For reference, Houston's 2022 revenues were in the $400m zip code.  Tampa/Cleveland are in the $250-270m zip code.

When I think of the "Tampa model" it's about maximizing the entire roster talent primarily.  They play a lot of platoons.  They innovate with openers/middlers/bullpen games.  They value defense up the middle (C, SS) and all around the OF.  They play hitters at traditionally weak positions (2B).  They value a deep bullpen.  They look for ways to arbitrage stats/metrics (like being willing to bat a slow guy (Diaz) ahead of a speedy hitter (Wander/Arozarena) simply for the OBP even if he clogs up the basepath).  None of those things are budget specific, but there are times where they need to make decisions based on the budget.  Like they are willing to trade talent to get talent (buyer to seller, buyer to buyer, MiLB trades, multi-team deals, take a loss when appropriate, org building moves...).  They are selective with their longer termed contracts.  

 

38 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

What concerns me the most for the health of the franchise and it's viability in the community, is that IF our fanbase is any kind of reflection of many on this message board, MANY people are ok with this. "It's okay if we never spend much, continue 'the rebuild' indefinitely through the 'pipeline', as long as we have a nice young team that wins more than it loses."

OH is not your typical fan.  If you're here (commenting or lurking), you're next level.  Everyone here knows these concerns and have weighted them however we want.

Payroll doesn't equal on-field performance, but I do think there is some correlation.  We've seen plenty of really bad contracts just this off-season.  Going further back, we've seen some good first year or two, but then train wrecks later in the contract.  This is one place where modern portfolio theory comes into play with hedging, risk tolerance, ROI, etc.  If we're looking just at the activity that Tampa, Cleveland, Houston (or even LAD, NYY), etc. are doing, then we're missing the lessons learned from their "models."

[yark14]

Remember when Elias said "liftoff", then just a short time later back-tracked?  Tells you everything we need to know about how much John Angelos is willing to invest in the club.  We will be following more of the Tampa Bay model than the Houston model.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, yark14 said:

Remember when Elias said "liftoff", then just a short time later back-tracked?  Tells you everything we need to know about how much John Angelos is willing to invest in the club.  We will be following more of the Tampa Bay model than the Houston model.

Just keep in mind the O's are looking up at Tampa when it comes to payroll.

[Gurgi]

4 hours ago, Aglets said:

We all hope we are going to follow the Astros model.

Unfortunately we have more recent information coming directly from ownership.

https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-john-angelos-next-tampa-rays-astros-20230222-bv6efmtr2zdgtnaktropjm7e4u-story.html

Our owner has said he hopes we are the next Tampa.  Or Cleveland.  Or Milwaukee.

Now what to do those teams all have in common?  Let's be generous and say they all tend to be in the lower half of team salaries.

Also, the Brewers and Rays have never won a WS and the Guardians have one of the longest championship droughts in sports.  I wish someone had followed up with him on that in that interview. 

Not trying to throw cold water on everyone's parade but I think it's important we all work from the same shared set of facts.

I wish it was different.  But until we see evidence to the contrary I think it's important we take these words from Angelos seriously.

I think this is correct.   Mainly because other teams are owned by Billionaires that have other companies that make them loot.   John Angelos really only has the investments of Peter and the Orioles.  I think they are using the Orioles now to supply his lifestyle.   

We need them to sell to true Billionaires that will treat the Orioles as a prestige ego vehicle like that dude who bought the METS.  

[Baltimorecuse]

I wish I was as sure as everyone else around here what motivates the family of Oriole's owners, not to mention their financial position.  I would, however, bet serious money before you ever see a Chris Davis deal again.