Orioles related trade rumors and speculation leading up to the deadline

[FlipTheBird]

1 minute ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

My biggest concern about Jackson Holliday is his glove. Shortstop is one of the most important positions on the baseball field and I want to be confident that he can vacuum clean anything that's hit his way. So far, only 1 year into his career at 19 years old, I think I have to wait a bit longer before I can hope to see that. What little bit I've seen of him in the field hasn't been encouraging but I also understand he's only 19 years old and just beginning his pro career. He has to grow into his position.

Goodness, the guy's been in the system for all of a year. Let's pump the brakes. Also, if you're looking for a guy who can be a vacuum cleaner at short, he probably isn't going to have a great stick. Guys that can do both don't come around all that often.

[interloper]

Just now, FlipTheBird said:

Goodness, the guy's been in the system for all of a year. Let's pump the brakes. Also, if you're looking for a guy who can be a vacuum cleaner at short, he probably isn't going to have a great stick. Guys that can do both don't come around all that often.

Yeah, how was Gunnar's glove at 19? A work in progress. What is he now? Manny Machado at 3B and a guy who we are super-comfortable with playing SS over Mateo. 

[Billy F-Face3]

1 minute ago, FlipTheBird said:

Goodness, the guy's been in the system for all of a year.

Which is exactly why I noted it and legitimately said I would have to wait for his development.

[Bemorewins]

4 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

While I also wouldn't trade Holliday for Ohtani, everyone needs to take a step back and realize that prospects are still just prospects until they prove otherwise.

There's a litany of former Top 10 overall prospects who didn't amount to bugaboo. What if Holliday turns into Tim Beckham? What if, like Brian Matusz (who broke the Top 5), he doesn't even reach 5 career WAR?

There is inherent risk for the other side of any prospect deal, too.

While what you are saying is true and that is an unknowable quotient to all of this. 

Here is the list of the last 5 years of #1 prospect in the game.

2018 - #1 Shohei Ohtani (Ocuna Jr. was #2 that year)

2019 - #1 Vlad Jr (Tatis Jr. was #2 that year)

2020 - #1 Wander Franco

2021 - #1 Franco/Rutschman

2022 - #1 Gunnar Henderson

2023 - #1 Elly De La Cruz/Jackson Holliday

Which of those players looks like a bust to you? That is going back a half of a decade. In the modern era, with advance metrics/data, scouting and the predicative component regarding prospects has improved tremendously since the days of Tim Beckham and Brian Matusz.

Nowadays, when guys make it to #1, (as the list above proves) there are very good odds that they will succeed. 

[Hank Scorpio]

8 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

While I also wouldn't trade Holliday for Ohtani, everyone needs to take a step back and realize that prospects are still just prospects until they prove otherwise.

There's a litany of former Top 10 overall prospects who didn't amount to bugaboo. What if Holliday turns into Tim Beckham? What if, like Brian Matusz (who broke the Top 5), he doesn't even reach 5 career WAR?

There is inherent risk for the other side of any prospect deal, too.

This is true, but I think what you're seeing here specifically... is renewed faith in the player development side of the organization. We haven't seen a heck of a lot of offensive regression from our prospects and obviously there's a reason for that. 

This organization has evolved a jaw dropping degree over the last 5 years. 

[tntoriole]

14 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

While I also wouldn't trade Holliday for Ohtani, everyone needs to take a step back and realize that prospects are still just prospects until they prove otherwise.

There's a litany of former Top 10 overall prospects who didn't amount to bugaboo. What if Holliday turns into Tim Beckham? What if, like Brian Matusz (who broke the Top 5), he doesn't even reach 5 career WAR?

There is inherent risk for the other side of any prospect deal, too.

And a litany of rentals who slump or get hurt 

[Bemorewins]

12 minutes ago, oriole said:

If Wells continues to get worse then putting someone in of a similar caliber does make the team better because instead of Wells crapping the bed, it’s Montgomery doing what Wells has been doing up to this point. 
 

I think a Montgomery trade is a great idea. Povich seems like a good start, but I would definitely prefer a positional player traded. Prieto and Rhodes are both redundant in this organization and neither will get a real good look at the MLB level. I think a package of both of them for Montgomery would be a win-win for both sides. Povich doesn’t really inspire me but the pitching in the organization is pretty bleak so I feel like it’d be better to hold on to as much as possible.  

Sounds like you like Montgomery more than me. To each their own. You are aware about his injury situation correct?

[Bemorewins]

4 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

This is true, but I think what you're seeing here specifically... is renewed faith in the player development side of the organization. We haven't seen a heck of a lot of offensive regression from our prospects and obviously there's a reason for that. 

This organization has evolved a jaw dropping degree over the last 5 years. 

For me, that is a very small component of my opinion regarding the odds of success of Jackson Holliday.

The KC Royals who can't develop a prospect to save their lives have still managed to churn out a Witt Jr. in the last few years. 

It's the state of the game, the metrics/analytics that goes into predicting prospect success, the draft, and even the advance approach that young potential draftees are being taught the game.

If these systems were in place when Brian Matusz and Tim Beckham were coming along, I doubt seriously they would have been chosen as high. For all of Beckham's tools he had a terrible approach/swing decisions. It's like he refused to take a walk no matter what. And Matusz never had the velo to dominate in the bigs. Wonderful change up but it is very hard to succeed at the Majors in the modern game with that lack of velo. You have to have pin point control, which he did not.

[Tryptamine]

ESPN reporting SD will keep Snell and Hader. With the Cubs 2 or 3 wins from being buyers, the pitching market is now Rodriguez,  Giolito and Montgomery and their price tags just went up.

[bpilktree]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

That's my point. In order to have favorable odds of success in the postseason we will need 3 effective starting pitchers (Bradish, something close to what Wells has been prior to the last 2 starts, and a 3rd pitcher who is currently not on the roster). I don't like the odds of going into a postseason series with Kremer/Gibson/Rodriguez needing to be relied upon in a game where our season is on the line.

Kremer because he is too "Jekyll and Hyde" and you never know which pitcher will show up. Gibson because he's not that good and typically performs worse in the second half of the season. I don't like his stuff vs playoff caliber offenses. Grayson because his innings will probably be capped and he has not shown that he can be that guy as of yet despite possessing more talent than any of our other starters within our org. 

Kremer has given up 3 runs or less in 11 out of last 14 starts on the season.  You pretty much know what you will get.  Montgomery has given up 3 runs or less in 10 of his last 14 starts.  Montgomery is an upgrade but how much is the question.   I think they do add a starter but not sure how big of impact it will be.  It depends on how confident they are on Wells and innings along with Means progression which none of us really have any clue on.  

[Bemorewins]

5 minutes ago, bpilktree said:

Kremer has given up 3 runs or less in 11 out of last 14 starts on the season.  You pretty much know what you will get.  Montgomery has given up 3 runs or less in 10 of his last 14 starts.  Montgomery is an upgrade but how much is the question.   I think they do add a starter but not sure how big of impact it will be.  It depends on how confident they are on Wells and innings along with Means progression which none of us really have any clue on.  

You can cherry-pick stats a lot of different ways. Look at Wells’ prior 8 starts before the last 2.

I do not have reasonably high hopes in a Montgomery lead rotation going into the Fall to face teams like the Rays, Rangers, and then either the Braves/Dodgers. We would be at a pitching talent disadvantage in every single one of those series. Are we going to upset our way to the World Series? Possible but not probable at all.

[bpilktree]

4 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

ESPN reporting SD will keep Snell and Hader. With the Cubs 2 or 3 wins from being buyers, the pitching market is now Rodriguez,  Giolito and Montgomery and their price tags just went up.

I am calling a lot of bluffing by a bunch of teams.   There is still a number of wins you have to get to to make a wild card and some of these teams are running out of time.  The NL wild card will be around 90 to 88 wins give or take a game or two.  The Padres are 48-52.  So they have to go somewhere in the 42-20 to 40-22 .  Are they going to go and play .645 baseball or better.  One team in baseball through the first 100 or so games has played over .620. The Mets are even in worse spot.   Anyone with say 55 losses (except the AL Central teams) by next Monday will be sellers.  

[FlipTheBird]

33 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

And a litany of rentals who slump or get hurt 

Of course! I’m just trying to get people to pump the brakes on treating every prospect like a sure thing.

[LookinUp]

I know Tyler Wells wasn't sharp his last 1.1 innings yesterday, but he gave up 1 hit. 

The O's just need to be careful with him and Gibson. That means they probably need to get another arm, leverage Irvin some more and hope John Means comes back healthy by September.

[Orioles0615]

3 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

If we were to acquire a pitcher like Koji Uehara I think our fortunes would dramatically change for the better. But unfortantely that guy's last season was in 2017. I think you meant Shintaro Fujinama.

But agree, I hope that we get a difference maker not just an add on to help around the edges.

Oops, they are like the opposite of each other too. Koji threw 88 with pinpoint control and Fuji throws 101 and is wild as Ricky Vaughn