Orioles related trade rumors and speculation leading up to the deadline

[owknows]

2 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

While what you are saying is true and that is an unknowable quotient to all of this. 

Here is the list of the last 5 years of #1 prospect in the game.

2018 - #1 Shohei Ohtani (Ocuna Jr. was #2 that year)

2019 - #1 Vlad Jr (Tatis Jr. was #2 that year)

2020 - #1 Wander Franco

2021 - #1 Franco/Rutschman

2022 - #1 Gunnar Henderson

2023 - #1 Elly De La Cruz/Jackson Holliday

Which of those players looks like a bust to you? That is going back a half of a decade. In the modern era, with advance metrics/data, scouting and the predicative component regarding prospects has improved tremendously since the days of Tim Beckham and Brian Matusz.

Nowadays, when guys make it to #1, (as the list above proves) there are very good odds that they will succeed. 

2017 Andrew Benintendi

2016 Corey Seager

2015 Kris Bryant

2014 Byron Buxton

2013 Jurickson Profar

2012, 11 Bryce Harper

2010 Jason Heyward

2009 Matt Weiters

All number one prospects. Looks like there's a fair number of guys in here that failed to meet the lofty expectations of a number one prospect.

 

[ChosenOne21]

10 minutes ago, owknows said:

2017 Andrew Benintendi

2016 Corey Seager

2015 Kris Bryant

2014 Byron Buxton

2013 Jurickson Profar

2012, 11 Bryce Harper

2010 Jason Heyward

2009 Matt Weiters

All number one prospects. Looks like there's a fair number of guys in here that failed to meet the lofty expectations of a number one prospect.

 

I think every one of those players has had a successful major league career. Some of them are/were superstars. I wouldn't say any of them "failed"

[Bemorewins]

15 minutes ago, owknows said:

2017 Andrew Benintendi

2016 Corey Seager

2015 Kris Bryant

2014 Byron Buxton

2013 Jurickson Profar

2012, 11 Bryce Harper

2010 Jason Heyward

2009 Matt Weiters

All number one prospects. Looks like there's a fair number of guys in here that failed to meet the lofty expectations of a number one prospect.

 

Is this a joke?

of the guys that you listed and all the ones that I listed how many averaged less than 3 WAR for their first 6 full seasons?

[Royle]

2 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

You can cherry-pick stats a lot of different ways. Look at Wells’ prior 8 starts before the last 2.

I do not have reasonably high hopes in a Montgomery lead rotation going into the Fall to face teams like the Rays, Rangers, and then either the Braves/Dodgers. We would be at a pitching talent disadvantage in every single one of those series. Are we going to upset our way to the World Series? Possible but not probable at all.

Do you mean we have a pitching disadvantage on paper?  Because on the field of play, we’re 6-3 against the Rays and have won games started by McClanahan Glasnow and Eflin.

We played Texas even, and basically did the same with the Braves and Dodgers.  Two one-run losses in Atlanta, including one game in 12 innings.  And one of the games in the Dodger series we led late with the chance to win but for an unfortunate pitch from Baker.  A break here or there could’ve turned those series the other way.

Anything can happen in October, but I don’t feel like those teams are clearly better than the Orioles.

[interloper]

20 minutes ago, owknows said:

2017 Andrew Benintendi

2016 Corey Seager

2015 Kris Bryant

2014 Byron Buxton

2013 Jurickson Profar

2012, 11 Bryce Harper

2010 Jason Heyward

2009 Matt Weiters

All number one prospects. Looks like there's a fair number of guys in here that failed to meet the lofty expectations of a number one prospect.

 

This is, hilariously, mostly a list of guys who had/have successful ML careers. 

[FlipTheBird]

5 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Is this a joke?

of the guys that you listed and all the ones that I listed how many averaged less than 3 WAR for their first 6 full seasons?

It's a healthy mix, really... you've got a total bust in Profar, a mostly bust in Benintendi, several guys in the "solid career" level, and then a couple superstars. Ultimately it really comes down to what the OP considers reasonable expectations for a No. 1, I guess.

[owknows]

1 minute ago, FlipTheBird said:

It's a healthy mix, really... you've got a total bust in Profar, a mostly bust in Benintendi, several guys in the "solid career" level, and then a couple superstars. Ultimately it really comes down to what the OP considers reasonable expectations for a No. 1, I guess.

That was pretty much my take.

Some stars. Some decent. Some not so great.

The original conversation was centered around the idea that being a number one prospect is essentially a sure thing, so we can count of Holliday being a sure thing.

And of course that's not always true.

 

[Bemorewins]

13 minutes ago, Royle said:

Do you mean we have a pitching disadvantage on paper?  Because on the field of play, we’re 6-3 against the Rays and have won games started by McClanahan Glasnow and Eflin.

We played Texas even, and basically did the same with the Braves and Dodgers.  Two one-run losses in Atlanta, including one game in 12 innings.  And one of the games in the Dodger series we led late with the chance to win but for an unfortunate pitch from Baker.  A break here or there could’ve turned those series the other way.

Anything can happen in October, but I don’t feel like those teams are clearly better than the Orioles.

Ok. Two things:

1) The Braves clearly are better/more talented than us and every other team in baseball this year. If they lose it will be an upset.

2) Are you saying that you would rather have our rotation/pitching than the Rays? Like which staff is better/more talented to you? Which staff do you believe that the overwhelming majority of executives in baseball would prefer?

Yes anything can indeed happen. But I would hate to be reliant upon 2/3 successive upsets in order to win a championship. The odds of that happening are very low.

[Bemorewins]

15 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

It's a healthy mix, really... you've got a total bust in Profar, a mostly bust in Benintendi, several guys in the "solid career" level, and then a couple superstars. Ultimately it really comes down to what the OP considers reasonable expectations for a No. 1, I guess.

You must have not read my post regarding the projected value of the # prospect Holiday over his first 6 full seasons vs 2 months (and playoffs of Ohtani). 

I don’t know that this solid career vs bust vs superstar talk has to do with what I said. 

I was talking about the WAR projected of 2 months of Ohtani vs what you can reasonably expect to get from 6 years of Holliday as a #1 prospect. I used the last 5 years worth of number 1 overall prospects in the sport as comps to what can reasonably be expected from a player like Jackson Holliday.

[waroriole]

13 minutes ago, owknows said:

That was pretty much my take.

Some stars. Some decent. Some not so great.

The original conversation was centered around the idea that being a number one prospect is essentially a sure thing, so we can count of Holliday being a sure thing.

And of course that's not always true.

 

Profar is the only one I’d say you could call not so great. Benintendi seems like he got some Red Sox hype to justify his #1, but still has had a solid ML career. Everyone else has had a great ML career. 

[owknows]

31 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

I think every one of those players has had a successful major league career. Some of them are/were superstars. I wouldn't say any of them "failed"

The context here was that Holliday will have a stellar career, because he's currently a number one overall prospect.

And the posted listed prospect for the last five years.

Maybe a bit of cherry-picking in there... as in the last 15 years we find Weiters and Profar.

Weiters and Profar have had sustained pro careers... but One has a career OPS+ of 92, and the other has a career OPS+ of 93

In other words, both have had MLB careers, but have been below average with the bat in those careers.

I personally would be a little disappointed with Holliday if he posted a career OPS+ of 92

Would I call him a bust? I dunno... that's a tough word.

But I would say that he failed to live up to the lofty expectations of a number one prospect.

And the point is... that this happens from time to time.

[owknows]

6 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Profar is the only one I’d say you could call not so great. Benintendi seems like he got some Red Sox hype to justify his #1, but still has had a solid ML career. Everyone else has had a great ML career. 

Weiters has a career OPS+ of 93

Profar has a career OPS+ of 92

Both have below average careers with the bat.

While both Weiters and Profar have ongoing careers... I don't think either of them lived up to the lofty expectations of a number one prospect. And those were the words I used.

I wasn't even really even considering Benintendi.

 

Edited July 24, 2023 by owknows

[HakunaSakata]

3 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Profar is the only one I’d say you could call not so great. Benintendi seems like he got some Red Sox hype to justify his #1, but still has had a solid ML career. Everyone else has had a great ML career. 

Benintendi has 7 HRs in his last 816 AB (and he's only 29). He's awful.

[btdart20]

56 minutes ago, owknows said:

2017 Andrew Benintendi

2016 Corey Seager

2015 Kris Bryant

2014 Byron Buxton

2013 Jurickson Profar

2012, 11 Bryce Harper

2010 Jason Heyward

2009 Matt Weiters

All number one prospects. Looks like there's a fair number of guys in here that failed to meet the lofty expectations of a number one prospect.

 

Sure all of them are solid.  But expectations are the darnedest things for perception.  Some 'meh' players, some injuries, some unmet expectations (but still solid MLBers), and a couple of stars.  

I'll take the 2018 and over crew to have the higher career WAR compared to the 2009-2017 crew.  Maybe analytics and tech have helped identify the better prospects too?

[Royle]

23 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Ok. Two things:

1) The Braves clearly are better/more talented than us and every other team in baseball this year. If they lose it will be an upset.

2) Are you saying that you would rather have our rotation/pitching than the Rays? Like which staff is better/more talented to you? Which staff do you believe that the overwhelming majority of executives in baseball would prefer?

Yes anything can indeed happen. But I would hate to be reliant upon 2/3 successive upsets in order to win a championship. The odds of that happening are very low.

I get what you’re saying.  I’m just saying taking a series from any of these teams may not be as big an upset as you’re making it.  Clearly the Braves are loaded, but I don’t think those other teams are so far ahead of us.

And those same executives may take the Yankees staff over ours; and the Blue Jays, the Mariners, the Twins, the Brewers and maybe a couple of other teams that have been looking up at the Orioles most of the season.