Orioles related trade rumors and speculation leading up to the deadline

[crawjo]

2 hours ago, ChosenOne21 said:

We're pitching starved as an organization. I really don't want to trade what little pitching we have in the minors. Wouldn't St. Louis take a position player prospect or two for Montgomery?

And not just that, but only two months of Jordan Montgomery. Pass. 

[Just Regular]

48 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Aren’t the Yankees tied for last place while we have the best record in the league?

Why would there be ANY urgency to bring in a pitcher for the Yankee series? 

What are they 9 behind us in the loss column?

Tyler Wells is tired, and every game matters in a divisional race where the Eastern champion will start the tournament with approximately TWICE the AL pennant odds of 4/6ths of the other entrants.

It is going to be brutal if the SigBot tells Tyler Wells he has been weighed and measured and is going to get throttled but it might be a touch easier if Jordan Montgomery and not Cole Irvin was taking his turn.

I don't believe Elias is taking his big actions before the last day, but on a rental player you do get 8% more in the regular season if you get a guy for 13 starts, not 12.

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Tyler Wells is tired, and every game matters in a divisional race where the Eastern champion will start the tournament with approximately TWICE the AL pennant odds of 4/6ths of the other entrants.

It is going to be brutal if the SigBot tells Tyler Wells he has been weighed and measured and is going to get throttled but it might be a touch easier if Jordan Montgomery and not Cole Irvin was taking his turn.

I don't believe Elias is taking his big actions before the last day, but on a rental player you do get 8% more in the regular season if you get a guy for 13 starts, not 12.

IMO Jordan Montgomery is not an upgrade of Tyler Wells, at best that would be a lateral move and maybe even a slight downgrade?

Shouldn't the goal be improvement as we try to make our first push to the World Series in 40 years?

Now on to your point about the Yankees and the division. If the Yankees are able to make up almost 9 games in 2 months on us. It would be due to 2 things primarily. 1) The had a miraculous turnaround to their otherwise mediocre season. 2) We had a monumental collapse. One series in late July will not define our season. (I don't think either are very likely.) Those games will be 4 of 162 and in terms of playing the Yankees 4 of 14. Whether we win the proposed Jordan Montgomery acquisition start or not, it is likely to have little baring on our season.

 

[DirtyBird]

7 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

IMO Jordan Montgomery is not an upgrade of Tyler Wells, at best that would be a lateral move and maybe even a slight downgrade?

 

Tyler Wells was surviving early in the season because he wasn't walking batters, he was getting K's and all the HR's he allowed were solo shots.

Now he is not getting K's, and is walking guys. That is not good for a guy who allows HR's like he does.

[Bemorewins]

13 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Tyler Wells was surviving early in the season because he wasn't walking batters, he was getting K's and all the HR's he allowed were solo shots.

Now he is not getting K's, and is walking guys. That is not good for a guy who allows HR's like he does.

It's been 2 starts. Maybe this is who he will be for the rest of the season? But for right now, I would suggest that it is a very small sample size. As bad as his start was yesterday, it was still much better than that garbage that Dean Kremer threw last time out. Do you want to replace him as well?

I'm not saying that it is not something to keep an eye on. But we really need Wells to continue to perform like one of our 2 good starting pitchers AND we need to acquire another good starter as well IMO.

Swapping him out for someone of similar caliber does nothing to improve us.

[FlipTheBird]

28 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

IMO Jordan Montgomery is not an upgrade of Tyler Wells, at best that would be a lateral move and maybe even a slight downgrade?

Shouldn't the goal be improvement as we try to make our first push to the World Series in 40 years?

Now on to your point about the Yankees and the division. If the Yankees are able to make up almost 9 games in 2 months on us. It would be due to 2 things primarily. 1) The had a miraculous turnaround to their otherwise mediocre season. 2) We had a monumental collapse. One series in late July will not define our season. (I don't think either are very likely.) Those games will be 4 of 162 and in terms of playing the Yankees 4 of 14. Whether we win the proposed Jordan Montgomery acquisition start or not, it is likely to have little baring on our season.

 

Montgomery may not be worth more than Tyler Wells when Wells is firing on all cylinders… but he’s definitely worth more than a Wells that could be running out of gas. And even if Wells gets back on track (which we hope he does), Montgomery serves as a fairly notable upgrade over Gibson or Kremer or, again unless he proves otherwise, Rodriguez.

[bluedog]

5 hours ago, tntoriole said:

The second scenario in this srticle is even more ludicrous than the first and involves a straight up Jackson for Ohtani .  Crazy!!  No way Elias does anything like either of these two Angel fanboy fantasies. 

The guy is an idiot. He claims that both Oriole and Angel fans would be upset by a Holliday for Ohtani trade and that proves its "near the mark".

No sane baseball fan would be upset getting the #1 prospect in baseball for a 2 month rental of a player their team isn't going to resign.

Edited July 24, 2023 by bluedog

[Bemorewins]

7 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

Montgomery may not be worth more than Tyler Wells when Wells is firing on all cylinders… but he’s definitely worth more than a Wells that could be running out of gas. And even if Wells gets back on track (which we hope he does), Montgomery serves as a fairly notable upgrade over Gibson or Kremer or, again unless he proves otherwise, Rodriguez.

That's my point. In order to have favorable odds of success in the postseason we will need 3 effective starting pitchers (Bradish, something close to what Wells has been prior to the last 2 starts, and a 3rd pitcher who is currently not on the roster). I don't like the odds of going into a postseason series with Kremer/Gibson/Rodriguez needing to be relied upon in a game where our season is on the line.

Kremer because he is too "Jekyll and Hyde" and you never know which pitcher will show up. Gibson because he's not that good and typically performs worse in the second half of the season. I don't like his stuff vs playoff caliber offenses. Grayson because his innings will probably be capped and he has not shown that he can be that guy as of yet despite possessing more talent than any of our other starters within our org. 

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, bluedog said:

The guy is an idiot. He claims that both Oriole and Angel fans would be upset by a Holliday for Ohtani trade and that proves its "near the mark".

No sane baseball fan would be upset getting the #1 prospect in baseball for a 2 month rental of a player their team isn't going to resign.

I don't see how that kind of trade makes sense for the Orioles. We are super young with tremendous talent still adjusting to the Bigs and some of our most talented batters still on the way (Holliday, Kjerstad, Mayo).

I would rather have Holliday's impact for the next 6/7 chances at the postseason than 1 postseason with Ohtani (despite how great he is and how much he would help us). It doesn't make sense given where we are within the org/roster life cycle. Our best players are almost all pre-arb guys. We are not some aging team looking to finally get over the hump. If this was 3/4 years from now, maybe this kind of trade would make some sense. But not now. Though it would be awesome to have Ohtani.

[bluedog]

6 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I don't see how that kind of trade makes sense for the Orioles. We are super young with tremendous talent still adjusting to the Bigs and some of our most talented batters still on the way (Holliday, Kjerstad, Mayo).

I would rather have Holliday's impact for the next 6/7 chances at the postseason than 1 postseason with Ohtani (despite how great he is and how much he would help us). It doesn't make sense given where we are within the org/roster life cycle. Our best players are almost all pre-arb guys. We are not some aging team looking to finally get over the hump. If this was 3/4 years from now, maybe this kind of trade would make some sense. But not now. Though it would be awesome to have Ohtani.

It makes NO sense for the Orioles. Its possibly the worst trade idea I've ever seen.

[Bemorewins]

7 minutes ago, bluedog said:

It makes NO sense for the Orioles. Its possibly the worst trade idea I've ever seen.

Well, I've seen some terrible ones proposed, some this very season and some that would grossly favor us. But this one is awful no doubt.

When you think about it, the math doesn't add up. For instance, if Ohtani were to go absolutely bonkers and put up a 4-5 WAR for the 2 month time period of being here and even help us to go far in the postseason (I don't know how that value would be assigned) but let's say another 1-2 WAR for farts and giggles.

That 5-7 WAR. With Jackson Holliday as a #1 prospect and on the conservative side can reasonably be expected to put up an average WAR of 2.5- 3 for 6 seasons. That would be 15- 18 WAR. That trade is WAY TOO FAR toward the Angels' side of the ledger.

If they would have traded Ohtani last trade deadline, the numbers would have made more sense. But there is no way you can justify a trade that is that far out of balance. This would have to be an all-in type trade that could only justify itself in a World Series championship. Even with Ohtani we would be underdogs against the Braves.

It's one thing to trade away prospects (which I am not opposed to). But you can't justify trading talents like Holliday for two months of any one or 2 players for that matter. The math doesn't work.

[Prayin4Reign]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Joey Wentz is not a pitcher teams would be looking for in the Orioles situation.   He might be an off season target.   There is very little to suggest that he would improve our chances this year.

Not suggesting he would.  Merely saw the article and added it to the conversation.  

[FlipTheBird]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Well, I've seen some terrible ones proposed, some this very season and some that would grossly favor us. But this one is awful no doubt.

When you think about it, the math doesn't add up. For instance, if Ohtani were to go absolutely bonkers and put up a 4-5 WAR for the 2 month time period of being here and even help us to go far in the postseason (I don't know how that value would be assigned) but let's say another 1-2 WAR for farts and giggles.

That 5-7 WAR. With Jackson Holliday as a #1 prospect and on the conservative side can reasonably be expected to put up an average WAR of 2.5- 3 for 6 seasons. That would be 15- 18 WAR. That trade is WAY TOO FAR toward the Angels' side of the ledger.

If they would have traded Ohtani last trade deadline, the numbers would have made more sense. But there is no way you can justify a trade that is that far out of balance. This would have to be an all-in type trade that could only justify itself in a World Series championship. Even with Ohtani we would be underdogs against the Braves.

It's one thing to trade away prospects (which I am not opposed to). But you can't justify trading talents like Holliday for two months of any one or 2 players for that matter. The math doesn't work.

While I also wouldn't trade Holliday for Ohtani, everyone needs to take a step back and realize that prospects are still just prospects until they prove otherwise.

There's a litany of former Top 10 overall prospects who didn't amount to bugaboo. What if Holliday turns into Tim Beckham? What if, like Brian Matusz (who broke the Top 5), he doesn't even reach 5 career WAR?

There is inherent risk for the other side of any prospect deal, too.

[oriole]

38 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

It's been 2 starts. Maybe this is who he will be for the rest of the season? But for right now, I would suggest that it is a very small sample size. As bad as his start was yesterday, it was still much better than that garbage that Dean Kremer threw last time out. Do you want to replace him as well?

I'm not saying that it is not something to keep an eye on. But we really need Wells to continue to perform like one of our 2 good starting pitchers AND we need to acquire another good starter as well IMO.

Swapping him out for someone of similar caliber does nothing to improve us.

If Wells continues to get worse then putting someone in of a similar caliber does make the team better because instead of Wells crapping the bed, it’s Montgomery doing what Wells has been doing up to this point. 
 

I think a Montgomery trade is a great idea. Povich seems like a good start, but I would definitely prefer a positional player traded. Prieto and Rhodes are both redundant in this organization and neither will get a real good look at the MLB level. I think a package of both of them for Montgomery would be a win-win for both sides. Povich doesn’t really inspire me but the pitching in the organization is pretty bleak so I feel like it’d be better to hold on to as much as possible.  

[Billy F-Face3]

4 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

While I also wouldn't trade Holliday for Ohtani, everyone needs to take a step back and realize that prospects are still just prospects until they prove otherwise.

There's a litany of former Top 10 overall prospects who didn't amount to bugaboo. What if Holliday turns into Tim Beckham? What if, like Brian Matusz (who broke the Top 5), he doesn't even reach 5 career WAR?

There is inherent risk for the other side of any prospect deal, too.

My biggest concern about Jackson Holliday is his glove. Shortstop is one of the most important positions on the baseball field and I want to be confident that he can vacuum clean anything that's hit his way. So far, only 1 year into his career at 19 years old, I think I have to wait a bit longer before I can hope to see that. What little bit I've seen of him in the field hasn't been encouraging but I also understand he's only 19 years old and just beginning his pro career. He has to grow into his position.