“Ortiz is going to have a long future as a starting shortstop, and here is the most likely place”

[Malike]

4 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Some of what's been exciting this past month is Gunnar looking good at SS, but if he's still here Wednesday I do hope we get a decent test run of Gunnar-Ortiz-Westburg as an anti-veteranosity group.

How much do we need to worry on the Cowser-Hicks scale that Joey Ortiz can't outplay Ramon Urias RIGHT NOW?

This is Urias' age 28 season, veteranosity? Santander is also 28, despite these guys being on the team for a while none of them are old. Ramon has been worth 1.3 WAR in very limited ABs this year, another underrated player who people are dying to ship out.

[Pickles]

14 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I think Ortiz is probably the best defender in the system.  His combination of hands, body control, arm, and ability to make difficult plays look routine, seems to be the best.   I can’t say for sure that he has better range nor the arm of Henderson or Mateo as a SS.   I do find the plays Ortiz makes at Norfolk to be nothing short of amazing.  He has a very quick catch and release on tough plays.   He just looks to be on a level.  Like an Ozzie Smith level.

Weren't you the one giving Moose grief from bringing up Ted Williams?  LOL.

I think I can safely assure you Joey Ortiz can't defend like Ozzie Smith.

[tntoriole]

2 hours ago, OakOrioles said:

Elias last night on Ortiz. Does he really believe that with Holliday pounding on the door next year potentially or is he trying to fluff the trade value in the next few days? Hmm. 
 

Elias said Norfolk shortstop Joey Ortiz will “come up again to help us.” He’s batting .338/.392/.562 in 55 games with the Tides.

“I think he’s going to have a long future as a starting shortstop, and here is the most likely place,” Elias said. “We’re thrilled that we have him right now kind of waiting in the wings.

"We love Joey Ortiz, we love having him as part of our future."

 

 

 

He is pumping his trade value …

[Just Regular]

2 minutes ago, Malike said:

This is Urias' age 28 season, veteranosity? Santander is also 28, despite these guys being on the team for a while none of them are old. Ramon has been worth 1.3 WAR in very limited ABs this year, another underrated player who people are dying to ship out.

I like Santander a little more than Urias, but I don't know that either of them are favorites to have careers very far into their 30's.     If he's here, next winter (not this winter) I bet it's iffy whether Elias tenders him Arb2.      

How long do you think Urias can hold a 1st string role here?     Is Elias paying $4mm for a strong reserve?     I hope in the next couple years Ramon earns himself a full slate of plate appearances somewhere.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Weren't you the one giving Moose grief from bringing up Ted Williams?  LOL.

I think I can safely assure you Joey Ortiz can't defend like Ozzie Smith.

I questioned if his range was as good as Mateo’s or Hendersons.  The comparison to Ozzie is more about the body control and the way he makes difficult plays look easy.   

[Malike]

2 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I like Santander a little more than Urias, but I don't know that either of them are favorites to have careers very far into their 30's.     If he's here, next winter (not this winter) I bet it's iffy whether Elias tenders him Arb2.      

How long do you think Urias can hold a 1st string role here?     Is Elias paying $4mm for a strong reserve?     I hope in the next couple years Ramon earns himself a full slate of plate appearances somewhere.

Oh, I'm not suggesting that we sign them long-term, but I am suggesting they are both going to be vital pieces to the team this year and should not be replaced for prospects in a stretch run. I don't think Urias, with 263ABs, is in a first-string role right now, so there is nothing to hold on to for him.

Edited July 29, 2023 by Malike

[Pickles]

Just now, RZNJ said:

I questioned if his range was as good as Mateo’s or Hendersons.  The comparison to Ozzie is more about the body control and the way he makes difficult plays look easy.   

I'm just joshing you.

When he was up he made a diving play at 3b that included a very quick transfer and throw.

I doubt very much he has the range of Mateo or the arm of Henderson.  I doubt he'll be able to exceed Mateo's defensive peak.

But that doesn't mean he won't be a very good defensive SS; in fact, that is the consensus opinion.

[Frobby]

To the question in the OP: I do think Elias  believes Ortiz has the tools to be a long term starting SS.   Is Baltimore the most likely place?  Well I guess so, because he’s here and no other one team is more likely then the Orioles to have him in the future.   And it certainly behooves Elias to say this.

I’d put the odds like this:

- Ortiz becomes the O’s long-term starting SS: 15%

- Ortiz becomes the O’s short-term starting SS but is supplanted by Holliday within a year or less: 15%

- Ortiz becomes a utility player with the Orioles: 15%

- Ortiz becomes the long-term SS for some other team: 25%

- Ortiz becomes a utility player for some other team: 15%

- Ortiz becomes a AAAA player who bounces around and never gets a solid foothold in the majors: 15%

Now, there’s some overlap between option two and options three - six.  But I don’t think there’s any one option above that is “more likely than not.”  There’s a lot of ways this could go.

 

[banks703]

21 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

He loves to go to RF which I love to see.   I have seen him vulnerable to chasing the bad breaking pitch.   I envision a .280 hitter with 40-50 walks, 30 doubles and 15+ home runs.  Combined with his defense that’s a pretty sold ML SS.

Yup. See my comparison to peak Jack Wilson. Joey is a better overall player in my eyes but that’s the best comp I have for him and Jack Wilson was pretty good. He wasn’t a bonafide superstar but he was a silver slugger and (I think GG winner one year) and an all-star. The accolades will be harder to come by for Joey because of the other great players in the AL at shortstop but he’s going to be a good player for someone. I hope it’s the O’s. 

[banks703]

21 minutes ago, Frobby said:

To the question in the OP: I do think Elias  believes Ortiz has the tools to be a long term starting SS.   Is Baltimore the most likely place?  Well I guess so, because he’s here and no other one team is more likely then the Orioles to have him in the future.   And it certainly behooves Elias to say this.

I’d put the odds like this:

- Ortiz becomes the O’s long-term starting SS: 15%

- Ortiz becomes the O’s short-term starting SS but is supplanted by Holliday within a year or less: 15%

- Ortiz becomes a utility player with the Orioles: 15%

- Ortiz becomes the long-term SS for some other team: 25%

- Ortiz becomes a utility player for some other team: 15%

- Ortiz becomes a AAAA player who bounces around and never gets a solid foothold in the majors: 15%

Now, there’s some overlap between option two and options three - six.  But I don’t think there’s any one option above that is “more likely than not.”  There’s a lot of ways this could go.

 

If Joey is still in the org by the time that Holliday is promoted (which, Hell, if you take Elias at his word, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that could be as soon as this year) and Joey is not a black hole at the plate like Jorge these last three months, I don’t see a world where they move Joey for Holliday. The quality of defense would be like rolling a bowling ball off of your dinner table. If Joey is in Baltimore he’s the shortstop. It would be a waste of his excellence on defense to move him around. 
 

I’ll add:

 

1. This is a very well thought out scenario exercise 

2. I think the most likely of these scenarios outside of Joey manning SS long term is that he’s traded 

 

Edited July 29, 2023 by banks703

[Billy F-Face3]

So now that the trade deadline has come and gone, and we still have a log jam, how does Joey Ortiz get some playing time in the big leagues??

[ChosenOne21]

5 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

So now that the trade deadline has come and gone, and we still have a log jam, how does Joey Ortiz get some playing time in the big leagues??

Well, to start, he can have Mateo's at bats.

[Jagwar]

If all are producing, I'd be excited about a future Orioles infield of Henderson, Holliday, Ortiz, Mayo (1B) and Adley, with Westburg as a DH/backup for all of the positions. 

[25 Nuggets]

The probability looks like four players that share the three positions.  Henderson (L), Holliday (L), Ortiz (R) and Westburg (R).

The Orioles already show that they prefer a rotating DH.

Mayo at 1B, and can cover 3B.  Kjerstad DH/RF.  It seems to all be in place.  The question is if any of the incumbents (O'Hearn, Urias, Mateo, maybe Frazier) are kept around.

[Fan4Life]

I have seen commentary that Santander should likely be moved this offseason.  Is anyone in favor of keeping him around?