What do you want to see from John Means tonight?

[waroriole]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

No, he was more 93-95 in 2020-2022. His velo spiked up after 2019. We saw an increase in his K rate and he was missing way more bats.

That increased his ceiling.

It was pointed out that his best WAR was with the lower velo and while that may be true, that was for one year. The increase in velo has allowed him a better K rate, more missed bats and a better spread on his changeup allows him a better margin for error and a higher upside.

Also, when coming back from an injury and not pitching for a while, command could be a bit of an issue and with the velo down, the command has to basically be perfect. That’s a lot to ask for someone who hasn’t faced ML hitters in 16ish months and you are doing it at a time when all the pressure is on.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/john-means/16269/stats?position=P

He’s averaged below 93 every year except the short 2020 season. If he’s missing 1-2 MPH on the FB, he’s still better than almost everyone we have. It’s not like we couldn’t easily get rid of Voth and Krehbiel from the roster. And easily send Irvin, Flaherty, and Gibson to the bullpen. There isn’t a high bar to clear for Means. If they wanna give him one more start in Norfolk it’s not the end of the world, but we need help in Baltimore. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, waroriole said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/john-means/16269/stats?position=P

He’s averaged below 93 every year except the short 2020 season. If he’s missing 1-2 MPH on the FB, he’s still better than almost everyone we have. It’s not like we couldn’t easily get rid of Voth and Krehbiel from the roster. And easily send Irvin, Flaherty, and Gibson to the bullpen. There isn’t a high bar to clear for Means. If they wanna give him one more start in Norfolk it’s not the end of the world, but we need help in Baltimore. 

Right, last night he was very much 90-91 a lot…want to see him more in the 92-94 range consistently.

Sure there are guys we can drop..I wouldn’t want Means over Flaherty right now. Flaherty’s upside is greater at the moment.

If you want to jettison one of those other relievers and move Irvin to the pen for him, that’s fine.

But as of right now, I’m not marking Means down as a savior for the rotation.

As I have been saying, a lot of things can change over the next month. Means is one of those things that can change. In theory, the velo should get better over the next month. He very well may be one of our 4 best. I have seen people (not sure I have seen it here?) say they think he should be in the playoff rotation based off of last night. I think that’s way off base. There is so a lot more that he has to show for us to be able to put him in that spot.

He very well may show it but I’m not ready to assume it.

[Frobby]

43 minutes ago, Nightbird said:

I'm totally pleased by Means progress. His velo will probably climb slowly through the next starts. I guess the O's will give him at least one, hopefully two more AAA starts

The only way to get him two more AAA starts is to option him to the minors, as his rehab stint will expire on Sept. 8 and he has to be recalled or optioned then.  

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

The only way to get him two more AAA starts is to option him to the minors, as his rehab stint will expire on Sept. 8 and he has to be recalled or optioned then.  

No idea what their plan is but I would give him one more start. There is no hurry to get him up here. It’s not like he is absolutely needed at the moment.

Give him that start and then bring him up.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No idea what their plan is but I would give him one more start. There is no hurry to get him up here. It’s not like he is absolutely needed at the moment.

Give him that start and then bring him up.

I think that probably is what they’ll do.  

[banks703]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

No, he was consistently 92-94 and would touch 95 in 2020-2022. His velo spiked up after 2019. We saw an increase in his K rate and he was missing way more bats.

That increased his ceiling.

It was pointed out that his best WAR was with the lower velo and while that may be true, that was for one year. The increase in velo has allowed him a better K rate, more missed bats and a better spread on his changeup allows him a better margin for error and a higher upside.

Also, when coming back from an injury and not pitching for a while, command could be a bit of an issue and with the velo down, the command has to basically be perfect. That’s a lot to ask for someone who hasn’t faced ML hitters in 16ish months and you are doing it at a time when all the pressure is on.

 

Hyun-jin Ryu seems to be doing just fine for the Jays. I'm confident that John Means can handle the pressure. 

The added velo for the K rate and yadda yadda yadda is all fine and good. I'll take the added velo if given the choice but at the end of the day, I prefer the version of the pitcher that produces the higher WAR.

We're making too big of a deal about the velo. I posted this after his first start yet it continues to be overlooked because we're all obsessed with velo:

His average velocity on his FB:

2018   90.2

2019   91.9

2020   93.9

2021   92.9

2022   92.3

 

There was a 2 mph jump from 2019 to 2020 but then a 1 mph drop from 2020 to 2021.

I get being enamored by the velo but if his average FB velo during these five rehab starts has been 91.9 mph and he's throwing change-ups like this... I am more than fine with the lower velo, which I think may come with more strength and length. This looks effortless to me, like he's not even trying. I'd expect there's more there if he needs it but last night he clearly didn't need to up his velo.

 

Edited September 1, 2023 by banks703

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, banks703 said:

Hyun-jin Ryu seems to be doing just fine for the Jays. I'm confident that John Means can handle the pressure. 

The added velo for the K rate and yadda yadda yadda is all fine and good. I'll take the added velo if given the choice but at the end of the day, I prefer the version of the pitcher that produces the higher WAR.

We're making too big of a deal about the velo. I posted this after his first start yet it continues to be overlooked because we're all obsessed with velo:

His average velocity on his FB:

2018   90.2

2019   91.9

2020   93.9

2021   92.9

2022   92.3

 

There was a 2 mph jump from 2019 to 2020 but then a 1 mph drop from 2020 to 2021.

I get being enamored by the velo but if his average FB velo during these five rehab starts has been 91.9 mph and he's throwing change-ups like this... I am more than fine with the lower velo, which I think may come with more strength and length. 

 

Ryu has been pitching for a while. His first starts won’t be in Sept, after not pitching for 16 months, while trying to win the division.  It’s apples to oranges.

His average FB velo over the course of 30-40 pitches really doesn’t matter that much.  If he’s 92+ most of the time, im fine..but 90-91, not so much.

[banks703]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Ryu has been pitching for a while. His first starts won’t be in Sept, after not pitching for 16 months, while trying to win the division.  It’s apples to oranges.

His average FB velo over the course of 30-40 pitches really doesn’t matter that much.  If he’s 92+ most of the time, im fine..but 90-91, not so much.

Take a peek at some of the video of his rehab starts. That isn't high effort from him. I'd wager that there's more there if he needs it. In his first start he was sitting 91-93 and it looked just as easy to him.. he's pitching for length here.. I wanted to see him throw 80 - 90 pitches, he did that while looking really good. The only hit that he surrendered last night was a broken bat bloop. He looks like John Means. 

The O's obviously know more than me and perhaps they do give him another start in Norfolk before they have to activate him (Sep 9 I believe) but I would rather see him throw his first game against the lowly Angels on Wednesday, allowing them to skip Gibson's turn, which would let them lineup Bradish for Game 1 in Boston and Game 1 of the 4 game set against the Rays. This would also line up Means to throw his second start against the Cards. If we want to introduce him to 2023 Orioles baseball in the least pressure situations, it's against the Angels and Cards, not the Rays, Stro's, Guardians or Red Sox. 

 

[banks703]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Ryu has been pitching for a while. His first starts won’t be in Sept, after not pitching for 16 months, while trying to win the division.  It’s apples to oranges.

 

Ryu's first start was against the O's on Aug 1. He's pitched to a 2.25 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP in his five starts since returning. I'm not sure that I consider that pitching for a while but I'll see the point you're trying to make. 

Ryu is six years older than Means and had surgery two months after Means. Means's setback was his back, not his arm so he's had even more time to recover from the TJ. If the O's think that he's healthy enough to go 5 innings in Norfolk and throw close to 90 pitches, and he gets the results he got last night, I'd rather he log those innings against ML hitters in early September to get some innings under his belt before the last two weeks of the season against the Guardians, Stros, Rays and Red Sox. Get him acclimated now. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, banks703 said:

Ryu's first start was against the O's on Aug 1. He's pitched to a 2.25 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP in his five starts since returning. I'm not sure that I consider that pitching for a while but I'll see the point you're trying to make. 

Ryu is six years older than Means and had surgery two months after Means. Means's setback was his back, not his arm so he's had even more time to recover from the TJ. If the O's think that he's healthy enough to go 5 innings in Norfolk and throw close to 90 pitches, and he gets the results he got last night, I'd rather he log those innings against ML hitters in early September to get some innings under his belt before the last two weeks of the season against the Guardians, Stros, Rays and Red Sox. Get him acclimated now. 

The Os are in no hurry to get him in the rotation.  They may have him come up but you and anyone else who thinks Gibson is coming out of the rotation right now are delusional. 
 

There is absolutely zero chance of that happening at the moment.

[banks703]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Now, if you feel you want him in the rotation over Irvin and you like Irvin in the pen more, that’s fine with me but I’m not expecting results that are way better…at least not as of today. 

I swear, I'm not nitpicking you, I'm just responding to posts. 

I disagree with Means taking Irvin's spot in the rotation. I think that Irvin deserves to get these starts. He's pitched his way back into the rotation and hasn't done anything yet to change that. Gibson is Means should replace. Outside of a couple of quality starts, he's been abysmal the last ten weeks or so with his 6.28 ERA. I get that he's consumed innings and I certainly appreciate what he's done thus far but the O's are in a dog fight these last four weeks of the season and need the best option every night. He has a history of faltering in the second half and we're seeing it happen in real time. If Means can give you five to six innings of just 5.00 ERA ball, he's considerably better than Kyle Gibson has been his last 15 starts. 

[banks703]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The Os are in no hurry to get him in the rotation.  They may have him come up but you and anyone else who thinks Gibson is coming out of the rotation right now are delusional. 
 

There is absolutely zero chance of that happening at the moment.

You're probably right but that doesn't mean that he shouldn't be skipped or given some time between his next start.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, banks703 said:

You're probably right but that doesn't mean that he shouldn't be skipped or given some time between his next start.

Ok but in reality world, that isn’t happening.  Irvin is a guy who has given them some length and done well out of the pen this year. He makes sense.

Flaherty probably has to pitch better too. I think he has to stay in the rotation because I think his upside is high but his stuff could also play up in the pen, so that could be something they choose to do it.

I don’t think Gibson is in any danger, especially since he had a great start recently. It’s just not even on the mind of the team right now.

[Aristotelian]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The Os are in no hurry to get him in the rotation.  They may have him come up but you and anyone else who thinks Gibson is coming out of the rotation right now are delusional. 
 

There is absolutely zero chance of that happening at the moment.

It may be Irvin right now. But why would they be extending Means to 5 IP right now if they aren't intending him to replace somebody? I agree they probably stick with Gibson to eat innings down the stretch but I would be surprised to see him start a playoff game. He's got a 6+ ERA in the second half with opponents hitting .296 off him. He is throwing batting practice. 

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

It may be Irvin right now. But why would they be extending Means to 5 IP right now if they aren't intending him to replace somebody? I agree they probably stick with Gibson to eat innings down the stretch but I would be surprised to see him start a playoff game. He's got a 6+ ERA in the second half with opponents hitting .296 off him. He is throwing batting practice. 

They are going to replace someone?   I’m not doubting that?

Edited September 1, 2023 by Sports Guy