Who should come to the majors and when? Who should be traded?

[baltfan]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Not making the team on OD and essentially waiting until Labor Day are 2 completely different things.

There is a lot of value in that ROY draft pick.  I imagine that the OPS at SS, 3rd, and 2B will all be over 700, so the improvement he could offer if you called him up in June vs. the end of August is probably minimal.  But yes, if you have injuries or struggles, you might have to bring him up earlier.  Then again, there would need to be lots of struggles, because Mayo is ahead of him at 3B and everyone else that plays third at the majors can also play second.

[DirtyBird]

5 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Cowser is not a CF, did you even watch the games?

Yeah, he was terrible. Don’t care. Get him a sports psychologist and he will be fine.

Mullins should have some trade value.

[dzorange]

23 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

I honestly believe that Santander is more valuable to us all the way up through his free agency than he is anything we would get in a trade for him.  His bat is just too important for the offense. And that power bat something that we have been severely lacking in the lineup so taking him out of it significantly weakens the offense. 

Hays is a streaky player in his own right. He plays like a hall if famer in the 1st half of the season then disappears for long stretches the 2nd half. However, he plays every day and his glove is top of the league playing left field. He helps to boost the defense.

Trading away players to rely on unproven prospects is a risky business because you just don't know if you can count on the young talent, but you do know what you're getting from the vets already on the team. 

We still have the (good) problem of too many players, and not enough spots to play them.  That problem is what is forcing the issue.

The thing with Hays for me is that I think he'd be a great fourth outfielder. But is that a role that he's willing to accept and is that a way the O's would utilize him? This might not be the move that's best for business but out of respect to Hays, I'd rather trade him somewhere he can have a better opportunity. I don't think his approach at the plate is good enough to be a starter on this team, but he clearly has value defensively and off the bench.

His overall production would be the easiest to replace. Santander? I don't think the O's can lose his power yet when they don't have any proven replacements. And Mountcastle/O'Hearn I'm good with holding for now until there's a better option at 1B. Mullins I'm not trading in 2024.

Hays and Urias/Mateo are the ones who are on the hot seat, in my opinion.

[spleen1015]

3 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Yeah, he was terrible. Don’t care. Get him a sports psychologist and he will be fine.

Mullins should have some trade value.

Look at this 'stache! This is not a man who needs psychological help!

[dzorange]

2 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Yeah, he was terrible. Don’t care. Get him a sports psychologist and he will be fine.

Mullins should have some trade value.

Mullins will have trade value, but he'll also have the same trade value after next season if not even more trade value. O's can't afford to move on from him yet.

[DirtyBird]

1 minute ago, dzorange said:

Mullins will have trade value, but he'll also have the same trade value after next season if not even more trade value. O's can't afford to move on from him yet.

This makes no sense

[dzorange]

Just now, DirtyBird said:

This makes no sense

Mullins has trade value going into the 2024 season. He will have trade value going into the 2025 season. And there's a good chance for a bounce back year or even a random great year like in 2021 that would increase his trade value.

[DirtyBird]

1 minute ago, dzorange said:

Mullins has trade value going into the 2024 season. He will have trade value going into the 2025 season. And there's a good chance for a bounce back year or even a random great year like in 2021 that would increase his trade value.

No. Duration of team control adds the most value. Everyone knows who he is, and what his range of performance outcomes could be. 

[dzorange]

Just now, DirtyBird said:

No. Duration of team control adds the most value. Everyone knows who he is, and what his range of performance outcomes could be. 

I’m not sure you do

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, dzorange said:

I’m not sure you do

I agree with a lot of what you’ve said and disagreed with a lot of what DirtyBird has said but I think it’s slim or none for the chances of Mullins having more value after 2024 than now.   That year of service time is a big factor.

That being said, I wouldn’t trade Mullins.  I think he’s capable of hitting better next year.  As is, he had good value.

Edited October 11, 2023 by RZNJ

[dzorange]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

I agree with a lot of what you’ve said and disagreed with a lot of what DirtyBird has said but I think it’s slim or none for the chances of Mullins having more value after 2024 than now.   That year of service time is a big factor.

That’s fine, I don’t really disagree there. To me, any loss in value isn’t significant enough to trade him. I do expect Mullins’ performance to bounce back, however.

[Sports Guy]

19 minutes ago, baltfan said:

There is a lot of value in that ROY draft pick.  I imagine that the OPS at SS, 3rd, and 2B will all be over 700, so the improvement he could offer if you called him up in June vs. the end of August is probably minimal.  But yes, if you have injuries or struggles, you might have to bring him up earlier.  Then again, there would need to be lots of struggles, because Mayo is ahead of him at 3B and everyone else that plays third at the majors can also play second.

He might be the best player in the org right now. He could come up and have Gunnar/Carroll like production immediately.

You don’t sit on that level of talent for several months because of a draft pick especially not when you are a contender.

I can buy the argument of waiting until late early June to hope that he doesn’t accrue enough time to pull an Adley and take the year away from you but that’s about it. Of course, if they just sign him, none of this would matter.

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

No. Duration of team control adds the most value. Everyone knows who he is, and what his range of performance outcomes could be. 

Ehhh, the extra year of control is obviously important but if he bounces back to a 770-+ OPS guy and keeps his normal very good defense, I think his value is higher than a guy coming off a year where he was hurt a lot and really struggled the last month of the season.

I wouldn’t trade him for 50 or 60 cents on the dollar when we don’t have a CFer to replace him.

[24fps]

I don't see Mayo or Holliday up without at least another 300 PA in AAA each.  That would give Mayo around 500 and around 400 for Holliday - a little more than Gunnar's 295.  Around 400 AAA PA's seems to be a sweet spot for call-ups these days.  I can see Urias at least being on the roster next year if for nothing else than to be a placeholder.

[DirtyBird]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Ehhh, the extra year of control is obviously important but if he bounces back to a 770-+ OPS guy and keeps his normal very good defense, I think his value is higher than a guy coming off a year where he was hurt a lot and really struggled the last month of the season.

I wouldn’t trade him for 50 or 60 cents on the dollar when we don’t have a CFer to replace him.

He was in the .720’s for the abbreviated ‘20 season and in ‘22 and ‘23. 

Although he did look much better than that at points this year, he has one outlier season at the plate.

Not sure why there would be any expectation for him to be a .770+ guy and improve his market value while giving up a year of control.