Who should come to the majors and when? Who should be traded?

[Roll Tide]

10 hours ago, AnythingO's said:

The Norby bat may be ready but he has no defensive position and does not need to be on the 40-man this year. He waits in AAA or is traded. I believe Kjerstad is here to stay, his bat is MLB ready and he will be an average MLB COF defensively.  O'Hearn;s value will NEVER be higher, he goes and Santander is his1B/DH replacement. Cowser and Stowers fight for the last COF spot, loser in AAA or trade bait. Westburg, Gunnar, Ortiz are starting INF with Mateo as backup and they use him as backup CF some. Urias is trade bait. Hays, Mullins, Kjerstad and winner of Stowers/Cowser split the 3 OF positions between them to keep Hays and Mullins healthy. None of them are 600 AB players, only Gunnar.

I thought he’s rule 5 eligible this year 

[Frobby]

27 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I thought he’s rule 5 eligible this year 

Nope.  Drafted in 2021, so not eligible until 2024.  

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Nope.  Drafted in 2021, so not eligible until 2024.  

Honestly, I think you can sell high on him. If you aren’t promoting him they should deal him. 

[wildcard]

On 10/12/2023 at 10:32 AM, Frobby said:

I think Mayo and Holliday start the year in AAA.   I agree either could be ready by June 1, but they’ll need to prove it.  

I’d like to  see Kjerstad, Cowser, Ortiz and Westburg all on the major league team.  None of them are off limits for a trade though.   

Norby and Stowers are trade bait, or they can be AAA depth.   

 

How do the O's fit Mullins, Hays, Santander, Hicks, Kjerstad and Cowser on to the MLB roster?

  I think Hicks played his way into the thinking because he is the veteran guy which Elias/Hyde like as a team leader and he hit for a high  OPS.   Sure he is going to miss time with injuries but when he played he hit.

Winning a 101 games with Santander, Mullins and Hays has to play well in keeping them.  

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

How do the O's fit Mullins, Hays, Santander, Hicks, Kjerstad and Cowser on to the MLB roster?

  I think Hicks played his way into the thinking because he is the veteran guy which Elias/Hyde like as a team leader and he hit for a high  OPS.   Sure he is going to miss time with injuries but when he played he hit.

Winning a 101 games with Santander, Mullins and Hays has to play well in keeping them.  

You can’t fit them all in.   My preference is to not re-sign Hicks.  I agree he might be re-signed, and that’s not my preference, though it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world either.  

[MarCakes21]

I know many have weighed in but here's my 2 cents:

Frazier, Hicks, O'Hearn, Urias, Mateo gone - hopefully we get something back of slight value for O'Hearn/Mateo/Urias - could keep one of the IF until Holliday up.

Cowser up in a Hicks+ role.  He spells Hays against tough righties, gives Mullins 2 days off per week, and plays 2 days in right.

Kjerstad up as primary RF.  Sits against lefties for now

Santander as primary DH, plays RF against tough lefties.

Mountcastle as primary DH, sits against tough righties

 

Westburg as primary 3B until Mayo is ready with one of Urias/Mateo backup

Norby up as backup 2B/injury shuffle until Holliday ready - ideally traded though given the depth.

Ortiz as primary SS on OD - sorry not pushing out Gunnar

Holliday starts in minors - primary 2B after about a month.

Mayo - I hold him down until so he can be ROY eligible in 25.  Make him a late August callup.

Stowers - traded or kept down in case injuries to Hays/Cowser/Santader/Kjerstad

 

This pretty much pushes all the fielders up this year and maximizes your next 5 years.  You can see who works, and who needs to be traded off next year.  Also, if everyone works, you can move off of Hays/Santander/Mountcastle in a year.

[24fps]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

How do the O's fit Mullins, Hays, Santander, Hicks, Kjerstad and Cowser on to the MLB roster?

  I think Hicks played his way into the thinking because he is the veteran guy which Elias/Hyde like as a team leader and he hit for a high  OPS.   Sure he is going to miss time with injuries but when he played he hit.

Winning a 101 games with Santander, Mullins and Hays has to play well in keeping them.  

I also suspect Hicks is re-signed, so trade Hays if neither of Cowser/Kjerstad are moved for pitching.  I prefer Santander over Hays and I would like to see a commitment to Cowser and Kjerstad at the ML level.

[MarCakes21]

41 minutes ago, 24fps said:

I also suspect Hicks is re-signed, so trade Hays if neither of Cowser/Kjerstad are moved for pitching.  I prefer Santander over Hays and I would like to see a commitment to Cowser and Kjerstad at the ML level.

I think everyone is crazy in the trade Hays category.  No one in this front office would trade Hays, given what he provides in his grit and defensive capability at home in LF.

Much more likely we trade Cowser/Kjerstad.

[wildcard]

46 minutes ago, 24fps said:

I also suspect Hicks is re-signed, so trade Hays if neither of Cowser/Kjerstad are moved for pitching.  I prefer Santander over Hays and I would like to see a commitment to Cowser and Kjerstad at the ML level.

OF - Hays, Mullins, Santander, Hicks, Kjerstad

IF - Mountcastle, O'Hearn, Westburg, Gunnar, Ortiz, Mateo

C - Adley, McCann

Cowser called up when Hicks or any other OF is injured

Knocking on the door - Holliday, Mayo.   Westburg, Ortiz, Mountcastle and O'Hearn better show they are  better than Holliday and Mayo.   First three have options or O'Hearn could be IL'd.

[24fps]

8 hours ago, MarCakes21 said:

I think everyone is crazy in the trade Hays category.  No one in this front office would trade Hays, given what he provides in his grit and defensive capability at home in LF.

Much more likely we trade Cowser/Kjerstad.

If Kjerstad or Cowser are traded (ideally only one of them) then the case for keeping Hays is stronger and I would be fine with that. 

How many minor league position players can Elias graduate each season, give them sufficient playing time to make the transition while also maintaining a competitive ML team now that the O's are no longer in rebuild mode?  To my mind the number is two.  In 2023 we had Gunnar and Westburg.  Next year it looks like Cowser and Kjerstad (I would prefer to see one of them traded and Ortiz getting the nod).  But what about Mayo and Holliday - 2025 for them?  And Norby and Stowers and so on...

No doubt Elias will be working the phones hard looking to trade the surplus, but he'll also be looking at the budget.  Hays averaged 108 wRC+ from 2021-2023, amassed 6.2 WAR and looks like he's about to make $5-6 million in arbitration.  To try to get that production out of either Kjerstad or Cowser for the league minimum is a reasonable risk and the savings will be plenty useful in getting a better SP.  I want to see as many of our young guys as possible play as Orioles, and while Hays is a perfectly serviceable major league player, he's not much more IMO. 

 

Edited October 14, 2023 by 24fps

[Aristotelian]

Could we sign Hicks and then trade him? I would think he's established some surplus value relative to the league minimum cost.

[Can_of_corn]

41 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Could we sign Hicks and then trade him? I would think he's established some surplus value relative to the league minimum cost.

I think signing Hicks and then trading him for some very middling prospect (which is the best you would get) would do significantly more harm to the team's reputation among players than any gain.

If you were a guy like Hicks why would you ever sign with the O's if you have any other offer?

[CaptainRedbeard]

6 hours ago, wildcard said:

OF - Hays, Mullins, Santander, Hicks, Kjerstad

IF - Mountcastle, O'Hearn, Westburg, Gunnar, Ortiz, Mateo

C - Adley, McCann

Cowser called up when Hicks or any other OF is injured

Knocking on the door - Holliday, Mayo.   Westburg, Ortiz, Mountcastle and O'Hearn better show they are  better than Holliday and Mayo.   First three have options or O'Hearn could be IL'd.

So to re-sign Hicks, they are going to keep Cowser blocked in AAA and trade Urias?

There’s no need for Hicks unless they think that none of Hays, Cowser or even Mateo can back up CF. And even then, they could just keep McKenna instead of DFA’ing him. 

I don’t believe Hicks is a better CF than Hays or Cowser at this point of his career. He was a great pickup for the 2023 team but it doesn’t make sense to bring him back, even for the league minimum. 

[LA2]

2 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

So to re-sign Hicks, they are going to keep Cowser blocked in AAA and trade Urias?

There’s no need for Hicks unless they think that none of Hays, Cowser or even Mateo can back up CF. And even then, they could just keep McKenna instead of DFA’ing him. 

I don’t believe Hicks is a better CF than Hays or Cowser at this point of his career. He was a great pickup for the 2023 team but it doesn’t make sense to bring him back, even for the league minimum. 

I wd be surprised if Hicks is not re-upped with the Os and it's not just a matter of whether he's a good back-up in CF. He led the team in OBP and it was the highest of his career (.381; .379 in 2020). He was also only 1 pt. away from tying Rutschman for team lead in OPS+ and 2 pts. above 3rd-place Henderson (128/127/125).

Edited October 14, 2023 by LA2

[CaptainRedbeard]

5 hours ago, LA2 said:

I wd be surprised if Hicks is not re-upped with the Os and it's not just a matter of whether he's a good back-up in CF. He led the team in OBP and it was the highest of his career (.381; .379 in 2020). He was also only 1 pt. away from tying Rutschman for team lead in OPS+ and 2 pts. above 3rd-place Henderson (128/127/125).

Hicks has a good eye but that’s all he offers at this point of his career. He’s now 34 years old and not an asset defensively. His numbers with the Orioles were entirely propped up by a .331 BABIP, way above his .273 career BABIP. His batted ball data indicates that was entirely fluky, he had a .208 xBA, .303 xSLG and .284 xwOBA on the season. (I can’t see how to separate those on Statcast to partial seasons for the Orioles vs. the Yankees, but with 75% of his PA coming for the Orioles those numbers were definitely still quite bad for the Orioles.) 

The Orioles got a good partial season out of Hicks. We can appreciate that and move on. There’s no reason to expect they should be able to again next year. He’ll likely get another major league deal for some team lacking in bench options that will appreciate his eye and veteranosity. The Orioles are not that team. They appreciate the eye and veteran experience as much as any team out there but have far too many quality young players competing for roster space and plate appearances to be allocating any to Hicks in 2024.