Some potential moves for this offseason

[DirtyBird]

Milwaukee does seem like a team that would pair well with us in a trade, that we could leverage controllable veterans, instead of selling the farm. 

A package of Mountcastle, Urias, Kremer and Norby for Burnes would make the Brewers better.

[FlipTheBird]

54 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

My off-season priority list would go in this order:

-Trade for a 900 OPS hitter. We need our Harper, Seager, or Alvarez in the lineup. This will cost money and may need to add assets for team to eat cost. Example Juan Soto for Santander, Mountcastle,Cowser, Tavera, Competetive balance pick A

-Sign a team friendly starting pitcher-example Sonny Gray

-Sign 1-2 back end arms-examples Matt Moore, Wandy Peralta, Reynaldo Lopez.

Willing to move anyone besides, Gunnar, Adley, Jackson, Westburg, Grayson, Kjerstad, Mayo, Basallo

The Padres are going to reload and try again in 2024. What good would trading Soto do them? 

[e16bball]

1 hour ago, G54377 said:

Hays, Ortiz, Povich, and Beavers for Bryce Miller and Penn Murphy (SEA).

For us: opens up an outfield spot for Cowser/Kjerstad while trading Hays at his likely peak value, the utility role Urias can keep while Westburg starts at 3B or 2B (Holliday eventually at the other). Murphy would help our middle relief right away who is tough on RH, and can lead to hopefully discarding the Bakers and Boumanns of the world. 

They get a good all around outfielder for a few years which replaces Hernandez (FA), an infielder who can immediately start at 2B, and a high upside SP. Plus Beavers as a potential 4th OF at least. They seem to have endless relievers so losing Murphy isn't that big of a deal for them.

Boy, you’d have to be pretty confident about Bryce Miller to make this trade. 

And I really don’t think I am. The MiL numbers are good, but not great. The rookie performance was fine, but not great — you have to like the K/BB ratio, but the StatCast metrics are pretty unimpressive. He gave up lots of hard contact, which is reflected in the 4.83 xERA. Basically a two-pitch pitcher (FB and SL), and as I seem to recall from when he faced us, I think he has a “gyro” style fastball that he likes to pitch up in the zone with. Lots of flyballs, as a result. 

If they did this deal, I’d get excited about him because I’d have to feel like they had some “plan” in mind to take him to the next level. But on its face, that seems like a lot of give up for Miller.

[DirtyBird]

1 hour ago, G54377 said:

Hays, Ortiz, Povich, and Beavers for Bryce Miller and Penn Murphy (SEA).

I think Beavers is by far the most undervalued prospect by most of our fans.

[G54377]

1 minute ago, DirtyBird said:

I think Beavers is by far the most undervalued prospect by most of our fans.

I was going to put in Haskin instead, but really if you’re Seattle I think you’re pushing to a final 4th guy that’s better.

[deward]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

Unless something changes drastically between now and opening day, I would hate to see Cowser penciled in as a replacement for Hays unless we made a major acquisition somewhere else to cover the loss in production that you would get there. I don't see anything that made me say Cowser could be competent (to the level of Hays) at the plate or in LF. Maybe you saw differently?

At this point I am very cautious about trying to translate our prospects hitting performance at Norfolk and believing there will be carryover to the bigs. I believe that Holliday will be very good offensively because he has shown no weaknesses and is widely regarded as a top prospect who has performed since day #1 of stepping on a professional baseball diamond. Maybe one of Kjerstad/Mayo pops? But beyond that I don't see any sure fire/replace all star/good player (like Hays) and get anything close to similar production. 

Hays put up a .769 OPS this year (matching his career high) and now has a .751 OPS in nearly 2k career PA. Solid, but unspectacular. Cowser's minor league numbers strongly suggest he can duplicate that, if not exceed it, and it would be far too premature to write him off based on his first 77 PA. I also think concerns about his defense, especially in LF, are a bit overblown. He might prove to be a downgrade from Hays in the field, but I wouldn't expect it to be a significant one. 

 

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, deward said:

Hays put up a .769 OPS this year (matching his career high) and now has a .751 OPS in nearly 2k career PA. Solid, but unspectacular. Cowser's minor league numbers strongly suggest he can duplicate that, if not exceed it, and it would be far too premature to write him off based on his first 77 PA. I also think concerns about his defense, especially in LF, are a bit overblown. He might prove to be a downgrade from Hays in the field, but I wouldn't expect it to be a significant one. 

 

Again, I personally have a hard time using our guys minor league numbers and seeing correlative success translating to the Majors. He COULD match Hays’ production, but IMO that is a big gamble. If Hays is being replaced then with Cowser then I would hope we have an offensive upgrade somewhere else. Otherwise, IMO it’s an unnecessary risk and would just be move of a cost cutting move, which doesn’t make sense for a team with the 2nd lowest payroll in the sport.

[Rbiggs2525]

20 hours ago, FlipTheBird said:

The Padres are going to reload and try again in 2024. What good would trading Soto do them? 

They said they are going to take payroll to around 200 million after disappointing this year.  I believe they are under the realization after paying Machado and Tatis JR, they cannot afford everyone. Boston and New York will be involved and have the money to resign Soto. I believe we could offer the best package with win now players and decent prospects.

 

I want to be clear that I prefer our long term money going to Henderson, Holliday, Adley.

Edited October 18, 2023 by Rbiggs2525

[CaptainRedbeard]

4 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

I want to be clear that I prefer our long term money going to Henderson, Holliday, Adley.

Soto is 24 years old and has 5 full seasons’ worth of a career .421 OBP and 154 wRC+. He’s pretty unprecedented, you can’t find a much safer bet in recent history to commit a massive long term contract to. 

For that reason, if he’s willing to agree to anything before free agency the Padres will do it, notwithstanding their other obligations. You make things work around a player like that. 

If the Orioles were able to acquire Soto they could in theory sign him long term with priority ahead of Adley, Gunnar, Holliday or anybody else, all of which are already under control for quite some time. But a competent ownership regime (that isn’t also anticipating selling the team imminently when Peter Angelos passes) could sign all 4 and still not compromise future payrolls. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Soto is 24 years old and has 5 full seasons’ worth of a career .421 OBP and 154 wRC+. He’s pretty unprecedented, you can’t find a much safer bet in recent history to commit a massive long term contract to. 

For that reason, if he’s willing to agree to anything before free agency the Padres will do it, notwithstanding their other obligations. You make things work around a player like that. 

If the Orioles were able to acquire Soto they could in theory sign him long term with priority ahead of Adley, Gunnar, Holliday or anybody else, all of which are already under control for quite some time. But a competent ownership regime (that isn’t also anticipating selling the team imminently when Peter Angelos passes) could sign all 4 and still not compromise future payrolls. 

But you have to be willing to dedicate the DH slot to him.

He shouldn't be in the field and that isn't an area in which he's going to improve with age.

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Soto is 24 years old and has 5 full seasons’ worth of a career .421 OBP and 154 wRC+. He’s pretty unprecedented, you can’t find a much safer bet in recent history to commit a massive long term contract to. 

For that reason, if he’s willing to agree to anything before free agency the Padres will do it, notwithstanding their other obligations. You make things work around a player like that. 

I’m not so sure.  The Padres appear to be losing money hand over fist.  You can choose to do that for a short period to “go for it,” but that doesn’t really work as a long term business model.  

[CaptainRedbeard]

13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But you have to be willing to dedicate the DH slot to him.

He shouldn't be in the field and that isn't an area in which he's going to improve with age.

By the middle of the contract, yes, but he’s also a David Ortiz / Yordan Alvarez level hitter.  He’s still one of the best players in baseball as a DH.

By OAA he’s a liability out there but not quite bad enough that he needs to be a full time DH yet. He bounced back in 2023 relative to 2022. And by UZR he’s only been a touch below average. For the Orioles specifically, his arm is good enough that they could tuck him away in RF in OPACY. He’s 24 so it will probably still be a number of years before he really slows down.

I also wouldn’t be surprised if Soto successfully transitions to 1B at some point. He’s a decent athlete, not a lumbering Schwarber type who has no business in the field. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m not so sure.  The Padres appear to be losing money hand over fist.  You can choose to do that for a short period to “go for it,” but that doesn’t really work as a long term business model.  

Yes but also no.

Seidler is worth 3B.  If he wants to lose 40M a year he can.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

By the middle of the contract, yes, but he’s also a David Ortiz / Yordan Alvarez level hitter.  He’s still one of the best players in baseball as a DH.

By OAA he’s a liability out there but not quite bad enough that he needs to be a full time DH yet. He bounced back in 2023 relative to 2022. And by UZR he’s only been a touch below average. For the Orioles specifically, his arm is good enough that they could tuck him away in RF in OPACY. He’s 24 so it will probably still be a number of years before he really slows down.

I also wouldn’t be surprised if Soto successfully transitions to 1B at some point. He’s a decent athlete, not a lumbering Schwarber type who has no business in the field. 

I think he has the same level in interest in playing defense as Ted Williams did.

[CaptainRedbeard]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m not so sure.  The Padres appear to be losing money hand over fist.  You can choose to do that for a short period to “go for it,” but that doesn’t really work as a long term business model.  

Maybe. But if that’s the case, they won’t be trading him even if they can’t extend him. Doesn’t make sense to “go for it” and then trade your best player because he has 1 year remaining on his deal.

If their business model is sustainable, then Soto is a better long term deal than any other they’ve given out, other than Tatis. If it’s not sustainable and they’re going for it, they need him for 2024.