Trade Package: Mountcastle or O'Hearn, Norby and Stowers for a SP

[wildcard]

42 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’d happily trade Kremer for this package. 

Add Kremer and you need two starters instead of one.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Add Kremer and you need two starters instead of one.

I’m aware. That should be the goal this offseason. 1 trade and 1 FA.

[sportsfan8703]

The players mentioned are worth more to us than to another team. We can platoon Mountcastle and O’Hearn to get the best value out of them. I’m not sure a trading team will want to give up something for a platoon player.

Norby and Stowers are deep depth pieces for us that will be insurance policies/plug and play pieces that will get you through 162. Again, I don’t know if they have the resume to bring back something in a trade. 

We need to figure out if Means is healthy for 2024 and what we’re doing with Wells. Can Wells go back to being the SP he was in the 1st half last year, or is he worth more as our closer?

We have a good 162 game rotation. Especially if we sprinkle in Irvin at home to give guys extra rest. Winning the division is no guarantee because of the comp, but we should be able to make the playoffs.

Now, do we have that frontline SP for the playoffs?  Can Grayson grow into that?  Will Snell sign here?  Can Sonny Gray still be a TOR type?  Is Cease that guy, or is he even worth what it would cost in a trade?

To me, it’s Snell or bust this offseason. Then we gotta gamble on who is available at the deadline and will we outbid the usual contenders. 

Look at the Rangers… they fired four major bullets at SP. Eovaldi, DeGrom, Scherzer, and Montgomery. Only Eovaldi, fresh off injury, has been TOR type SP in the playoffs. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

I'd say it's more like Mountcastle or Hays (or possibly Santander). O'Hearn is still a platoon player with only one good season his trade value isn't going to be much.

Depending on the quality of starter wanted the O's probably have to part with someone better than Stowers.

[scbalt52]

I think the package could be something more like Basallo, Norby/Ortiz, Cowser, and Mount. If you're really trying to get someone you want. That hurts to give up but I don't think it kills us. We have a deep system to get someone. I wouldn't completely rule out that a deal for a needle-moving SP might include one of Kremer/Wells/Hall being shipped out, so the other team gets an arm.

 

I'd love to get one of Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Cease, Skubal, Gilbert, Bryce Miller, or Keller. But it will take a lot. Personally, the way I think about it, is that if I feel that it's a good deal for the Orioles - it's probably not enough. It's going to have to hurt a bit to get one of those guys. Some more than others.

Edited October 17, 2023 by scbalt52

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

And I'm not giving up the farm for Dylan Cease his 2022 is the outlier in his career to date. He's decent, but I'd rather sign someone like Snell if the White Sox are going to demand two Top 100 prospects in addition to other assets for Cease.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/ceasedy01.shtml

[CaptainRedbeard]

That package has decent trade value but hard to see what available SP that would bring back. It’s not likely going to be a good young SP with a lot of control. It could be a decent to good SP with not a lot of control remaining, but somebody well below the Burnes/Cease level.

It’s probably less than the Guardians would get for Bieber, but maybe close if they value MLB-ready players over ceiling.

It’s more than the Mets would get for Quintana or another similar mid rotation arm with 1 year and a sizable salary, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the Orioles try to go this direction. 

[DirtyBird]

25 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The players mentioned are worth more to us than to another team. We can platoon Mountcastle and O’Hearn to get the best value out of them. I’m not sure a trading team will want to give up something for a platoon player.

Mountcastle would provide more value to a team with a stadium more hitter friendly to RH bats. And the O'Hearn/Mountcastle platoon makes for pretty inefficient roster construction for us. Would much rather have one them, or neither, and use Santander at 1B.

[RZNJ]

19 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

And I'm not giving up the farm for Dylan Cease his 2022 is the outlier in his career to date. He's decent, but I'd rather sign someone like Snell if the White Sox are going to demand two Top 100 prospects in addition to other assets for Cease.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/ceasedy01.shtml

The problem with Snell is that 2023 was the first season since 2018 that he threw over 129 innings.  He’s also never completed 6 innings in 10 post season starts.  He’s very talented but is he really an ace you can count on to both give you innings and be a force in the post season.

[OriolesMagic83]

23 minutes ago, scbalt52 said:

I think the package could be something more like Basallo, Norby/Ortiz, Cowser, and Mount. If you're really trying to get someone you want. That hurts to give up but I don't think it kills us. We have a deep system to get someone. I wouldn't completely rule out that a deal for a needle-moving SP might include one of Kremer/Wells/Hall being shipped out, so the other team gets an arm.

 

I'd love to get one of Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Cease, Skubal, Gilbert, Bryce Miller, or Keller. But it will take a lot. Personally, the way I think about it, is that if I feel that it's a good deal for the Orioles - it's probably not enough. It's going to have to hurt a bit to get one of those guys. Some more than others.

Basallo is a huge price to pay for a starter.  I don't think I would include him for anyone named Gilbert in your list.  I would be interested in Cease or Keller if the price is right.  Both of them have elite stuff with not the best results other than Cease's Cy Young contender season.  If the O's could do a Kjerstad, Ortiz/Norby, 3rd prospect in 10-15 range (maybe McDermott) I would definitely be in favor of the trade.  Teams w/ above average to great starters are not trading them for spare parts. 

[OriolesMagic83]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

The problem with Snell is that 2023 was the first season since 2018 that he threw over 129 innings.  He’s also never completed 6 innings in 10 post season starts.  He’s very talented but is he really an ace you can count on to both give you innings and be a force in the post season.

The other problem with Snell is that the O's owner is John Angelos and no way is he signing off on a $200 million contract for a pitcher.  The most I'm hoping for is a mid rotation starter like Ed Rod or Montgomery (probably still too high for JA).

[e16bball]

37 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

To me, it’s Snell or bust this offseason.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but I think it’s going to be “bust” then.

I just don’t see any way that Mike/John’s first major foray into FA will be paying market value for a reigning CY winner — especially one who just managed to pitch 130+ innings (in his contract year) for the first time since Buck was writing out lineups with Davis/Jones/Machado in them.

Snell feels a lot like this year’s Rodon. And I’d expect them to have about as much interest as they had in last year’s Rodon.

[Matt Bennett]

Looks like Norby has fallen out of MLB's top 100. https://www.mlb.com/prospects/top100/

[Ripken]

Teams know what our farm system is and will want good prospects.  That package isn't getting much of anything back.  I would go to the Brewers first and see what's possible.  It's shocking how bad their lineup is.

[Hank Scorpio]

6 minutes ago, Ripken said:

Teams know what our farm system is and will want good prospects.  That package isn't getting much of anything back.  I would go to the Brewers first and see what's possible.  It's shocking how bad their lineup is.

Norby and Stowers are both darn good prospects. They aren't Jackson Holliday or Mayo... but they aren't AAAA filler either.