FA Starters that fit Elias' pattern

[IPlayGM]

39 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

A monetary value is assigned to the human capital.

I’m aware. But I do think you can have different philosophies with human capital vs finances. At least from my point of view, I would like to be more aggressive this off-season financially while still being conservative with the prospects as far as moving them. Elias/team may stay conservative with both. We shall see.

[LookinUp]

On 11/7/2023 at 8:17 AM, wildcard said:

MLBTR has Gray signing for 4/90m.   I don't see the O's doing that.

I don't see the O's doing that because they would lose the pick they're about to gain when Gunnar wins ROY. It's too high to lose.

I see them signing Ed Rod, if his personal issues are settled. A LH starter that doesn't cost a draft pick is ideal. As others mentioned, they could try to trade for one too, in which case that could be a higher upside arm. 

Absent that, I think we're looking at a Wacha type. His stuff plays perfectly for Oriole Park (reverse splits). Problem with him isn't ability, it's ALWAYS injuries.

[NCRaven]

19 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I don't see the O's doing that because they would lose the pick they're about to gain when Gunnar wins ROY. It's too high to lose.

I thought that they changed that so the team losing the player receives a comp pick, but the team signing the player no longer loses a pick.  The comp pick is based on the salary level of the losing team.  If the losing team receives revenue sharing it's a higher pick than a team that is over the luxury tax threshold, for example.

[LookinUp]

12 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I thought that they changed that so the team losing the player receives a comp pick, but the team signing the player no longer loses a pick.  The comp pick is based on the salary level of the losing team.  If the losing team receives revenue sharing it's a higher pick than a team that is over the luxury tax threshold, for example.

I've heard that they would lose their 3rd highest pick if they sign a guy who declined his QO.

[sportsfan8703]

6 hours ago, Matt Bennett said:

Johnson, McDermott, and Povich are fine prospects (our #10, #11, and #15 on MLB.com). Not elite prospects. We are hopeful that can turn into productive pieces. They in no way should be relied upon for 2024 or 2025 rotation innings and shape our 2024 off-season strategy. If their promotion cannot be denied and you have to make room, that's a good problem to have for a future time. What are the odds of that? Yes, Bradish, Grayson, and Kremer developed well. How many didn't develop? 

Waves of Orioles SP Prospects throughout Elias' tenure:

2019 Debut:

1. Dillon Tate: 1st round pick, former top 100 prospect --> Never made a start. Converted into decent reliever. Provided a couple WAR and is now a non-tender candidate.

2. Hunter Harvey: 1st round pick, former top 100 prospect --> Never made a start. Injuries and availability concerns led to a DFA after 0.5 WAR. 

2020 Debut:

1. Dean Kremer: mentioned previously. Turned into a useful middle/back end rotation piece. 

2. Keegan Akin: 2nd round pick  --> Poor starter. Temporary success as reliever. Non-tender candidate. 

3. Bruce Zimmermann: no success at big league level. Likely DFA. 

2021 Debut:

1. Zac Lowther: 2nd round pick --> no success at big league level and out of baseball

2. Tyler Wells --> durability and home-run concerns as starter. ERA and WHIP have looked nice but all peripherals and analytics suggest that was not to continue. Proven to be a nice piece in the bullpen. 

3. Mike Baumann: Shuttle bullpen guy at the big league level so far. Perhaps there's some improvement to be had but he's already 28. 

2022 Debut:

1. Kyle Bradish: STUD

2. DL Hall: 1st round pick, former top 100 prospect --> struggles starting at AAA. Looks like he can be a useful bullpen piece. 

3. Cody Sedlock: 2016 1st round pick --> one cup of coffee in majors

2023 Debut: 

1. Grayson Rodriguez: 1st round pick, former top 10 prospect --> down and up rookie campaign. We'll see if he takes the next step into an average and above average MLB starter. 

 

Only Bradish was hand picked by this current FO.  Elias and Co. have hand picked Lyles, Gibson, Irvin, Flaherty, Povich, McDermott and Johnson.  

[Matt Bennett]

5 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Only Bradish was hand picked by this current FO.  Elias and Co. have hand picked Lyles, Gibson, Irvin, Flaherty, Povich, McDermott and Johnson.  

The post I quoted had Elias and company taking credit for developing Grayson and Kremer (acquired by Duquette) so by that logic they also are responsbile for all the failed SP prospects. 

And bad track record so far: Lyles, Gibson, Irvin, and Flaherty are all bad pitchers. None particularly close to 100 ERA+ with the O's. 

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

The post I quoted had Elias and company taking credit for developing Grayson and Kremer (acquired by Duquette) so by that logic they also are responsbile for all the failed SP prospects. 

And bad track record so far: Lyles, Gibson, Irvin, and Flaherty are all bad pitchers. None particularly close to 100 ERA+ with the O's. 

Gibson pitched as well or better than expected.  That’s hardly a failure.  Same with Lyles.

[wildcard]

19 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

The post I quoted had Elias and company taking credit for developing Grayson and Kremer (acquired by Duquette) so by that logic they also are responsbile for all the failed SP prospects. 

And bad track record so far: Lyles, Gibson, Irvin, and Flaherty are all bad pitchers. None particularly close to 100 ERA+ with the O's. 

Bradish?

[Matt Bennett]

11 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Gibson pitched as well or better than expected.  That’s hardly a failure.  Same with Lyles.

Gibson career ERA+ before 2023: 93. Gibson 2023 ERA+: 87. What were you expecting?

You get what you pay for. I expected a tad over replacement level. They gave that. I was more unhappy with the Gibson signing than the Lyles signing since the 2023 Orioles' expectation was a contender and playoffs. 

We needed two starting pitcher additions and we got Gibson and Irvin. A higher profile pitching addition could have swung things differently in October. I can't even remember if either of them made the playoff roster.

 

[Matt Bennett]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Bradish?

Of course I have not forgotten Bradish, simply responding to the quoted post's examples of hand-picked pitchers.

Bradish is perhaps Elias' greatest feat. But no one else has turned out like him. It's foolish to expect Povich, McDermott, and Johnson to. It's better to hope and adjust course if they do. 

[HakunaSakata]

5 hours ago, 24fps said:

On what do you think Elias' year-end bonus is based?  Or maybe you think he doesn't receive one at all?  That would be unlikely.

What wildcard described might not be the exact mechanism (I certainly don't think it is), but incentive based bonuses are far from conspiracy driven craziness, they're a fact of corporate life and a completely legit source of questions around conflicts of interest.

I think Elias' bonus is based on his performance. not some batsh*t crazy idea that he's secretly being incentivized to keep the payroll under a certain amount. I'm sure he's given a budget to work with each year (like every other GM), but the idea that he would purposely try to come in below that number so he can pocket the difference is ludicrous. 

[24fps]

40 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I think Elias' bonus is based on his performance. not some batsh*t crazy idea that he's secretly being incentivized to keep the payroll under a certain amount. I'm sure he's given a budget to work with each year (like every other GM), but the idea that he would purposely try to come in below that number so he can pocket the difference is ludicrous. 

Okay, but how performance is measured is at the root of the question and financial incentives for executives are commonplace. So what's the deal here?  I'm curious, and I couldn't care less if it's my business or not.  I do care about not jumping to unwarranted conclusions.

For the record, the notion that Elias gets to keep the difference between budget set and budget spent is more than a little farfetched to me as well.  In the end, I think Mike Elias is a straight arrow, but the Warehouse is extraordinarily opaque and I think it's healthy to want to know who thinks that's necessary and why.

[wildcard]

3 hours ago, Matt Bennett said:

Of course I have not forgotten Bradish, simply responding to the quoted post's examples of hand-picked pitchers.

Bradish is perhaps Elias' greatest feat. But no one else has turned out like him. It's foolish to expect Povich, McDermott, and Johnson to. It's better to hope and adjust course if they do. 

Cano, Coulombe, Perez, Wells

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, HakunaSakata said:

I think Elias' bonus is based on his performance. not some batsh*t crazy idea that he's secretly being incentivized to keep the payroll under a certain amount. I'm sure he's given a budget to work with each year (like every other GM), but the idea that he would purposely try to come in below that number so he can pocket the difference is ludicrous. 

Pocket the difference?  Where did that come from?

[Matt Bennett]

36 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Cano, Coulombe, Perez, Wells

Not starters so therefore I don’t know what they have to do with our conversation and I have mentioned Wells already.