2023 #7 Prospect Enrique Bradfield Jr. - CF

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m thinking that’s too lofty.  (See what I did there?)

Lofton had a career .124, and had double digit homers 7 times.   Butler had an .086 ISO, and was never in double digits for homers.  He did have double digits in triples 5 times though.  I’d be thrilled with either outcome (68.4 rWAR for Lofton, 49.8 for Butler) but I’m pessimistic that Bradfield will have as much pop as Lofton.  

If he can bunt like Butler a specific subsect of the fandom will be pleased.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

 

He does have special speed which could make him an outlier and why I like him on this part of the list. He also has a pretty high floor due to his speed and defense alone.

I was told by a source I trust that (1) Bradfield is a noticeably rangier defender than either Mullins or Jones (in their primes), and (2) his defense is so good that the floor for what he needs to do on offense to justify being a major league starter is about as low as it can go.   So, that will be fun to watch.  

[btdart20]

34 minutes ago, Frobby said:

For now, I’m dreaming on a Brett Butler-type career.  

I had to re-read this because I read Billy Butler...  Though I'd take his AVG/OBP.

Butler's a solid hope/comp.  Juan Pierre too.  Times have changed a bit, especially with pitch mix, more sliders, pitch counts, positioning, even defensive athleticism...  Lofton is a lofty hope, but 

He's already above Billy Hamilton just on defense and approach.

15 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I think modern analytics have poo-poo'd the theory that hitting the ball on the ground is good for any hitter, even fast ones. Better athletes and better positioning has kind of eliminated that slap hitting approach.

This is the crux of why I'm interested in how they are developing him.  My interest is as much from a hitter theory perspective as it from an on-field talent perspective.

There's a path in analytics looking for other types of xOBA other than EV.  What does Luis Arraez do differently that allows a lower EV to play up?  McNeil?  Peak Frazier?  None of those guys have top shelf speed, so the hit tool carried the luggage against the analytic based pitching/defense.  Is there anything transferrable from what they do/did (i.e. coaching/development)?  Or is it just genetic lottery?  

[interloper]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I was told by a source I trust that (1) Bradfield is a noticeably rangier defender than either Mullins or Jones (in their primes), and (2) his defense is so good that the floor for what he needs to do on offense to justify being a major league starter is about as low as it can go.   So, that will be fun to watch.  

If Brett Phillips can still get ML ABs, I'm confident that at the very least Bradfield is already a ML player. 

That said, please please please don't be Brett Phillips. 

Edited November 14, 2023 by interloper

[waroriole]

Any chance we see him as a PR defensive replacement in September/October?

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, interloper said:

If Brett Phillips can still get ML ABs, I'm confident that at the very least Bradfield is already a ML player. 

That said, please please please don't be Brett Phillips. 

That would be a very poor outcome for Bradfield.  

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I was told by a source I trust that (1) Bradfield is a noticeably rangier defender than either Mullins or Jones (in their primes), and (2) his defense is so good that the floor for what he needs to do on offense to justify being a major league starter is about as low as it can go.   So, that will be fun to watch.  

Must be a smart source.  

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, btdart20 said:

There's a path in analytics looking for other types of xOBA other than EV.  What does Luis Arraez do differently that allows a lower EV to play up?  McNeil?  Peak Frazier?  None of those guys have top shelf speed, so the hit tool carried the luggage against the analytic based pitching/defense.  Is there anything transferrable from what they do/did (i.e. coaching/development)?  Or is it just genetic lottery?  

That's an interesting concept to follow for sure. Did the Orioles see something else that makes them think Bradfield's bat will play despite the low ISO? 

He really will be an interesting player to follow when it comes to his development and ultimately how it plays at the major league level. His speed and range (mostly due to his speed) allows his defense to shine despite a 35 arm. 

He has such extreme tools one way or the other, but he did hit 15 college home runs (not sure if some were inside the park or not) so he can occasionally get into a ball. should be a fascinating follow that hopefully works out because he's fun to watch on the bases and in the field.

[jabba72]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I was told by a source I trust that (1) Bradfield is a noticeably rangier defender than either Mullins or Jones (in their primes), and (2) his defense is so that the floor for what he needs to do on offense to justify being a major league starter is about as low as it can go.   So, that will be fun to watch.  

Well I dont really want Billy Hamiltons offense, which would be the floor for an ultra fast, rangy CF.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

If Brett Phillips can still get ML ABs, I'm confident that at the very least Bradfield is already a ML player. 

That said, please please please don't be Brett Phillips. 

Brett Phillips has more power and is not as fast as Bradfield. I don't think he's a great comp.

Billy Hamilton is decent comp that I can think of when it comes to his skill set even though Hamilton was a converted shortstop who was a high school draft pick so it's hard to comp the stats vs level. 

Saying that, I don't think Hamilton had the same strike zone awareness as Bradfield so we'll see how that plays.

Juan Pierre might be the best comp guy that I can think of overall that has his eye, speed, and defense, but I think Bradfield may be a touch faster. 

So maybe Juan Pierre's bat with Hamilton's speed is the best case scenario for Bradfield.

[Fiver6565]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Brett Phillips has more power and is not as fast as Bradfield. I don't think he's a great comp.

Billy Hamilton is decent comp that I can think of when it comes to his skill set even though Hamilton was a converted shortstop who was a high school draft pick so it's hard to comp the stats vs level. 

Saying that, I don't think Hamilton had the same strike zone awareness as Bradfield so we'll see how that plays.

Juan Pierre might be the best comp guy that I can think of overall that has his eye, speed, and defense, but I think Bradfield may be a touch faster. 

So maybe Juan Pierre's bat with Hamilton's speed is the best case scenario for Bradfield.

I can't remember the dude's name offhand but what about the kid who played CF for the Phillies the entire playoffs?  He basically didn't get a hit the entire time (I think he had maybe 2 technically, but one was a triple).  The announcers kept saying that his defense was keeping him in the lineup because it was so good, and the Phils didn't really need much from his bat, etc.    Is that maybe a worst case scenario comp?

 

Certainly if he's rangier than Mullins, that's an excellent start, because Ced has been no slouch out there!

[Fiver6565]

Just now, Fiver6565 said:

I can't remember the dude's name offhand but what about the kid who played CF for the Phillies the entire playoffs?  He basically didn't get a hit the entire time (I think he had maybe 2 technically, but one was a triple).  The announcers kept saying that his defense was keeping him in the lineup because it was so good, and the Phils didn't really need much from his bat, etc.    Is that maybe a worst case scenario comp?

 

Certainly if he's rangier than Mullins, that's an excellent start, because Ced has been no slouch out there!

Quoting because I looked up the name - Johan Rojas

 

[Tony-OH]

38 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

Quoting because I looked up the name - Johan Rojas

 

Rojas made the quite the ascension this year. He put up a .230/.287/.325/.612 last year in 292 High-A PAs before hitting well in AA this year and then getting the call. He's quite the defender according to dWAR and did manage to put up a .771 OPS in 164 PAs with the Phillies so it wasn't all defense related.    

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Did the Orioles see something else that makes them think Bradfield's bat will play despite the low ISO? 

Don't they always? 

It may be arrogance in their own ability to develop at this point, but I doubt they're accepting that he will be almost unplayable outside of a platoon or defensive replacement role. They're probably the ones who put out the Kenny Lofton hype. Lol.

[Moose Milligan]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m thinking that’s too lofty.  (See what I did there?)

Lofton had a career .124, and had double digit homers 7 times.   Butler had an .086 ISO, and was never in double digits for homers.  He did have double digits in triples 5 times though.  I’d be thrilled with either outcome (68.4 rWAR for Lofton, 49.8 for Butler) but I’m pessimistic that Bradfield will have as much pop as Lofton.  

I can see why you say that.  And FWIW, I really don't care if he develops power or not.  If the power he has is gap to gap and he can stretch doubles into triples, that's great.  I really don't care how often (or not often) he knocks the ball over the fence.

Tony said that the pitch recognition/strike zone judgement is above average, which is more important to me.  SG seems to think that pitchers are going to challenge him more if he's not a power threat and I can see why he says that but I disagree a little bit.  If the speed is that legit, if the base stealing threat is that legit, he's still a threat...just a different type of threat.  They're still going to try to get him to chase out of the zone, they're going to try to make him get himself out, which is why the pitch recognition and plate discipline is so important.  If they throw strikes and IF (a big if) he can get the bat to the ball, then he's still a threat to beat out a grounder, take an extra base, etc.  

But in this day and age where stealing bases is encouraged, we just saw Ronald Acuna steal 70, IIRC it's been awhile since anyone has stolen that many.  So what could we expect from Bradfield?  It's hard to say but I think it's safe to say he's going to be a terror on the basepaths.  Like I said, I don't care about the power, his offensive game is about getting on base and stealing bases, that's where he's a threat.  The lack of power, IMO, doesn't matter.

Brett Butler is an interesting comp though, I am not sure how welcomed he'd be in this day and age.  IMO, he's a bit of a forgotten player, he was one of the better leadoff hitters in the 80s and 90s, I hardly see him mentioned anywhere these days.  But if Bradfield's career turned out like that, I'd be really happy with that, too.