Who are the 2023 Orioles #3 and #4 prospects?

[Three Run Homer]

I voted for Basallo at 2 and Mayo at 3.  Both of them are amazing prospects with the bat.  Mayo has an edge in that he's hit at a higher level than Basallo.  On the other hand, Basallo is 2.5 years younger than Mayo and hits left-handed, which makes him a better fit in Camden Yards.   It sounds to me like there are more questions about Mayo's ability to stick at 3B than there are about Basallo's ability to stick at C, and C is a more valuable defensive position.   

Overall, I give Mayo a slight edge as a hitting prospect, Basallo a slight edge defensively, and Basallo a big edge in terms of superstar potential because of what he's done at such a young age.  Think of it this way:  Basallo hit better at A/A+/AA at age 18 in 2023 than Gunnar did at age 20 in 2021.  

Come to think of it, you could even make a case that Basallo should be #1 instead of Holliday.  Offensively, Basallo's 2023 at age 18 is not that far behind Holliday's 2023 at age 19--Holliday got up to AAA and his hit tool/strike zone judgment are off the charts, and it's reasonable to assume that he will add power.  But Basallo already has plus power at age 18.  He could be a left handed Juan Soto.  

[LookinUp]

Basallo really is a stud. I think nationally people will have him above Mayo. Not sure if Tony will or not, but his comments that they're 2a and 2b pretty much tells you he loves them both.

I actually love the comment about this really being about 1c. Three studs. Good problem to have.

As an aside, Callis and Mayo did a "draft" for who would be 2024 rookie of the year in both leagues. Holliday was not drafted. Kjerstad actually was though. Cowser wasn't either, but crazier things have happened.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

It's hard to believe that we've graduated so many top prospects already but still have guys past Holliday that could you make an argument for top 25 in all of baseball.  Cowser already was.  Kjerstad could be and was creeping up in the rankings.  Mayo and Basallo seem like they make make some off season lists, but definitely some updated lists once some older players graduate.  

 

justbaseball.com has Mayo 12, Basallo 20, Kjerstad 31, Cowser 36, Ortiz 43.  And Holliday at 1, of course.  

[Since1984]

Kjerstad and  Basallo. Heston hasn’t played in two years and has the better floor ceiling with a mlb power bat already showing.

Basallo may not be a catcher, but has the same kind of bat profile. He may be the better hitter, but it is too early to tell.

Edited November 16, 2023 by Since1984

[Aristotelian]

I'm starting to second guess myself but Tony has always loved Mayo and Mayo has done nothing to deserve getting passed over by an A+ guy, no matter how good he is. But I do see the case for Basallo #2.

[Tony-OH]

17 hours ago, btdart20 said:

Or is #3 really #1c?!   

I will say this, it would not totally surprise me if you told me ten years from now that 2 or 3 put up more WAR than #1, but I still think #1 will end up a cut above.

[Moose Milligan]

HK 4, Mayo 3. 

I just think Basallo’s position, age and bat make him a small tick above. 

[Tony-OH]

I'll be honest, I went back and forth on this one and ultimately went with Basallo because at the same age he had already had a taste of AA and yet to have a blip of issues at new levels.

[LookinUp]

4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I'll be honest, I went back and forth on this one and ultimately went with Basallo because at the same age he had already had a taste of AA and yet to have a blip of issues at new levels.

I guessed most of your top 10 wrong, but as you frequently say, it's about the write-ups, not the rankings. 

I can't wait for 11-20.

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I guessed most of your top 10 wrong, but as you frequently say, it's about the write-ups, not the rankings. 

I can't wait for 11-20.

You may have been missing the exact order, but I know you follow along closely enough to have the basic names right. But yes, the writeups are always more important than any rankings because honestly, 1-5 this year could have been the #1 prospect in the organization in many other years in the past.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You may have been missing the exact order, but I know you follow along closely enough to have the basic names right. But yes, the writeups are always more important than any rankings because honestly, 1-5 this year could have been the #1 prospect in the organization in many other years in the past.

It’s interesting to wonder how many teams would Cowser be a top 2 prospect for?

I bet, without looking, at least half the league he would be.

[LookinUp]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

You may have been missing the exact order, but I know you follow along closely enough to have the basic names right. But yes, the writeups are always more important than any rankings because honestly, 1-5 this year could have been the #1 prospect in the organization in many other years in the past.

And it's a snapshot in time too. The great ones keep improving. Who's to say Basallo doesn't just keep improving and become our Eddie Murray? If he does, he'll probably end up the #1 guy even if he's never rated as such. 

So I'm on board with your stance that it's the profiles that matter more than the specific order. And I like the order. I just know it's impossible to predict the future perfectly.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s interesting to wonder how many teams would Cowser be a top 2 prospect for?

I bet, without looking, at least half the league he would be.

Some teams he wouldn't be a prospect at all.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Some teams he wouldn't be a prospect at all.

Very true.

[Tony-OH]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Some teams he wouldn't be a prospect at all.

I assume you mean he would no longer qualify because he would have been given too many major league PAs already vs he's not good enough?