Cease vs everyone else

[Pickles]

4 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Agreed but it happened here!

Seems like I'd like to play poker with a lot of people here.

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, Pickles said:

The suggestion that Kremer be part of this package is one of the more ludicrous suggestions going around.

This isn’t reality but more hypothetical.

If you had to make the trade, which of these are you doing:

Cowser and Ortiz

Kremer, Ortiz, Norby and Stowers

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, dystopia said:

It’s not based on actual results. 
 

Chicago’s bad defense is why we’ve had a million threads discussing trading for him. Nobody would be willing to give up Cowser for two years of a 4.50 ERA pitcher. The expectation is that he would have a year more like 2021 than 2022 or 2023. 

So just a question…. Are we blaming the defense for his 2021 numbers where he was a 4 ERA pitcher (3.91) ? His FIP was 3.41. How about 2020 when it was 4.01 ERA W/ FIP of 6.06? His K rates are dropping and his BB Rates are rising those 2 stats have nothing to do with defense. I’m not saying he’s not a good MLB pitcher but just don’t think he’s a guy you go overboard to get. I really think he ends up being 3.85-4.15 guy the next 2 years. And then he’s leaving because they/he aren’t resigning him. 

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

This isn’t reality but more hypothetical.

If you had to make the trade, which of these are you doing:

Cowser and Ortiz

Kremer, Ortiz, Norby and Stowers

I wouldn't do either but if I had to choose one I'd choose the first package.

At least I'd feel like I had upgraded my rotation for the next two years.

Sending Kremer out and bringing Cease in- yes, Cease is better with more upside- but overall the rotation isn't all that improved.

[Roll Tide]

13 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Seems like I'd like to play poker with a lot of people here.

The more than half that keep calling him a #5 starter or swing man. 
 

 

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

This isn’t reality but more hypothetical.

If you had to make the trade, which of these are you doing:

Cowser and Ortiz

Kremer, Ortiz, Norby and Stowers

For me it would be Cowser and Ortiz. And not because I’m attracted to Norby. I’m just not subtracting Kremer.  Cowser and Ortiz straight up would be my best offer.

Edited December 3, 2023 by Roll Tide

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I wouldn't do either but if I had to choose one I'd choose the first package.

At least I'd feel like I had upgraded my rotation for the next two years.

Sending Kremer out and bringing Cease in- yes, Cease is better with more upside- but overall the rotation isn't all that improved.

Wow.  Thats crazy to me.

And presumably, if you trade Kremer, you are adding another starter.

I would much rather do the second package and trade Cowser for Woo.  Not that Woo is the only guy to add but just using that as an example.

Far more upside in that rotation.

 

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Wow.  Thats crazy to me.

And presumably, if you trade Kremer, you are adding another starter.

I would much rather do the second package and trade Cowser for Woo.  Not that Woo is the only guy to add but just using that as an example.

Far more upside in that rotation.

 

Well, I mean I wouldn't either package to be clear.

[Roll Tide]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Wow.  Thats crazy to me.

And presumably, if you trade Kremer, you are adding another starter.

I would much rather do the second package and trade Cowser for Woo.  Not that Woo is the only guy to add but just using that as an example.

Far more upside in that rotation.

 

Forget the actual package… I’m not sure Cease’s actual results will be better than Kremer. I know Woo was a rookie but I doubt he’s better than Kremer.

[Roll Tide]

4 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Well, I mean I wouldn't either package to be clear.

I mean …. If Cowser develops and Ortiz ends up a solid MLB SS even if it’s not an Allstar you’ve lost value wise. The offset would be winning a WS.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Forget the actual package… I’m not sure Cease’s actual results will be better than Kremer. I know Woo was a rookie but I doubt he’s better than Kremer.

The upside of both of them is far higher than Kremer.  

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

I mean …. If Cowser develops and Ortiz ends up a solid MLB SS even if it’s not an Allstar you’ve lost value wise. The offset would be winning a WS.

You can lose a trade value wise and still have it turn out a good trade.  If Cease averages 5 FWAR over 2 years and Cowser + Ortiz average 6 WAR over 5-6 years we lost the trade but maybe it worked out for us especially if the guys we have instead of Ortiz/Cowser are also producing 3FWAR or better.

[Safelykept]

4 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

I agree with you on this ….Except I’m not giving up Kjerstad and I’d prefer to give them a choice of Cowser, Ortiz, or Norby as piece 1. I’d give up Westburg and replace him with Ortiz but I think you lessen his value playing him at 2B. Unless you move Gunnar back to 3B and play Norby at SS. 

Norby  at SS. What???

[Roll Tide]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The upside of both of them is far higher than Kremer.  

What’s the likelihood of both achieving that? What are Woo’s projections? 

[Roll Tide]

1 minute ago, Safelykept said:

Norby  at SS. What???

Typo … Ortiz

[dystopia]

24 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

So just a question…. Are we blaming the defense for his 2021 numbers where he was a 4 ERA pitcher (3.91) ? His FIP was 3.41. How about 2020 when it was 4.01 ERA W/ FIP of 6.06? His K rates are dropping and his BB Rates are rising those 2 stats have nothing to do with defense. I’m not saying he’s not a good MLB pitcher but just don’t think he’s a guy you go overboard to get. I really think he ends up being 3.85-4.15 guy the next 2 years. And then he’s leaving because they/he aren’t resigning him. 

Not sure I understand what you're getting at here, I think we're pretty much on the same page of our opinion on Cease. I think a 3.70 to 4.00 ERA is a reasonable expectation for him next year with the Orioles defense behind him.