Cease vs everyone else

[Billy F-Face3]

12 hours ago, 24fps said:

As for HuskerFan's credibility in general, I simply don't believe in vaguely sourced, quasi-inside information that has popped up out of nowhere on a message board.

I will say this... quasi-inside information popped up on this message board about Ryan Mountcastle being ill (wuith Vertigo) before he was pulled out of the game, citing a source who was a famliy friend. People didn't believe it, but they were right.

Quasi-inside information popped up on this message board 1 month ago about someone from the Carlyle group in talks to buy the Orioles. So far, that has proven to be fairly accurate too. (Although we still don't know the details or specifics because it's still happening in real time. What is likely to happen is a minority stake with a option to buy out the majority after Peter passes, which was also reported in that rumor.)

So far I have been impressed with some of the information I've heard here first before anywhere else.

[RZNJ]

The Dodgers signings of Ohtani and Joe Kelly are not official yet.  Why?  Their roster is at 40 and they need to make room.  Could the holdup be a 3-1 or 4-1 deal for Dylan Cease?   

[UMDTerrapins]

12 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

The Dodgers signings of Ohtani and Joe Kelly are not official yet.  Why?  Their roster is at 40 and they need to make room.  Could the holdup be a 3-1 or 4-1 deal for Dylan Cease?   

And they’ll need to make room for Mateo once we trade him! But seriously, we should trade him to L.A. for a pitching prospect. 

[Il BuonO]

If he’s posted, I’ll take Sasaki over Cease.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/roki-sasaki-asks-to-be-posted-for-mlb-teams-chiba-lotte-marines-likely-to-deny-request.html

[ChosenOne21]

49 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

If he’s posted, I’ll take Sasaki over Cease.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/roki-sasaki-asks-to-be-posted-for-mlb-teams-chiba-lotte-marines-likely-to-deny-request.html

Seriously doubt he's getting posted though. Or that the Orioles would sign him if he was.

[Sports Guy]

Dodgers are in talks with the Rays to get Glasnow.

[interloper]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Dodgers are in talks with the Rays to get Glasnow.

They won't be making the same mistake the Angels did with Ohtani. 

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Dodgers are in talks with the Rays to get Glasnow.

If a deal goes down we’ll find out who the Dodgers best pitching prospect (not most highly rated) is because that’s the one the Rays will get back.

[sportsfan8703]

MLBTR is saying the Yankees/Dodgers have agreed to a 2-1 40 man swap to help the Dodgers clear space. Players aren’t named yet. Could be a way for NYY to build back their reliever depth. 

As for Cease… I still think we can make the best offer to the CWS without giving up anyone in our top 5. 

[Just Regular]

8 hours ago, RZNJ said:

If a deal goes down we’ll find out who the Dodgers best pitching prospect (not most highly rated) is because that’s the one the Rays will get back.

Maybe, but I'd feel better about an Andrew Friedman production than say something with the Reds.

I think the Rays of recent years enjoyed a bump over the normal baseline thanks to the Pirates' silliness with the Chris Archer acquisition.    The Glasnow and Meadows part is about to be over.    Shane Baz is just getting started but he's paid the surgeon now so his chances of being a Glasnow-level performer are less.

[Sports Guy]

 

[24fps]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

Cue the Six Million Dollar Man intro.

And while we're at it, let's ignore all the noise designed to remove any advantage a first-rate FO like the Orioles might have when it comes to research and analysis.  There would be no point in trading for Cease if a team didn't think it could steer his performance back to 2022 levels.  He's going to be expensive, if for no other reason than because that narrative will be repeated often enough to gain some traction.

The fact remains that the O's are best positioned to trade what is required unless CHW decides it wants young pitching that could be used in 2024.  If that's the case then the advantage shifts to the Dodgers IMO.  The only other question in my mind is Elias' willingness to trade more than what most of us think is "fair".  Personally I don't care if the world at large thinks the Orioles didn't win a trade 24 hours after it happened.  Get back to me about 10 months from now.

[StottyByNature]

11 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

 

As always I look at these reports through the lens of who gains an advantage by it coming out.  If it's an NL executive then this person's team is not trying to get Cease but is trying to drive up the price for a competitor.  Or, and more than likely, it's tied back to the Sox who are still not happy with the offers for him.

I still believe getting Cease is the logical and obvious move for the O's, much in the same vein as Kimbrel.  It seems like the Sox are stuck between what they perceive as his value and what everyone else does.  They were dumb not to trade him at the deadline last year because teams would have gotten three postseasons out of him and now that's down to two.  Unfortunately, though, if they are going to continue to be unreasonable this may not happen.  I would not be surprised if they continue to be stubborn and if they don't get what they want they push this trade to the deadline this year.  Once someone puts their foot in the ground it can be difficult for them to come off it.

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, StottyByNature said:

As always I look at these reports through the lens of who gains an advantage by it coming out.  If it's an NL executive then this person's team is not trying to get Cease but is trying to drive up the price for a competitor.  Or, and more than likely, it's tied back to the Sox who are still not happy with the offers for him.

I still believe getting Cease is the logical and obvious move for the O's, much in the same vein as Kimbrel.  It seems like the Sox are stuck between what they perceive as his value and what everyone else does.  They were dumb not to trade him at the deadline last year because teams would have gotten three postseasons out of him and now that's down to two.  Unfortunately, though, if they are going to continue to be unreasonable this may not happen.  I would not be surprised if they continue to be stubborn and if they don't get what they want they push this trade to the deadline this year.  Once someone puts their foot in the ground it can be difficult for them to come off it.

Agreed.  They asked for too much at the deadline.  The rumors were they asked for Holliday?  What were they thinking.  With Cease being available for three offseasons then, I'm sure we would've parted with one of Cowser/Kjerstad.  

It seems like we've been at a stand off with them since last July.  Now they want the package we offered then.  

[Frobby]

13 hours ago, 24fps said:

There would be no point in trading for Cease if a team didn't think it could steer his performance back to 2022 levels.  

I have zero expectation that we would be able to get Cease back to 2022 levels.   Do you have any idea how good he was that year?   WAY better than Bradish was in 2023 for us.   Sure, getting him back to that is a best case scenario we could hope for.  But to expect that, or close, is foolish.  It’s more realistic to think we can get him back to being the 113 ERA+ he’s been over his career.  That’s how he should be valued in a trade, and anything we get from him beyond that is gravy.