Cease vs everyone else

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

You’re assuming that Beavers can play the biggest Sq footage LF in MLB. Essentially another CF. That’s assuming a lot for a guy that is 6’4” 206. 

We have great prospect depth overall, but if we trade Cowser, then we are really thin at LF options. We’re not going to buy a FA. That’s not going to happen. So our LF depth is Beavers, Fabian, and then maybe Wagner/Horvath, with some Norby sprinkled in on the road. 

Those 6 years of Cowser in LF at OPACY is really valuable. We need those. Nothing against Beavers. 

You keep talking about Beavers size.  Cowser is listed at 6’2, 220.  Hays 5’ll” 200.   What advantages are you saying they have because of their size?

[btdart20]

Tough decisions every year with a competitive stockpile of prospects.  The Rookie Integration Plan (RIP) matters.  2022 had a few SPs, RPs, and Adley.  2023 had Gunnar and Grayson given a long-ish leash, and then selected timing/short leash for a few others.  

Does 2024 continue that measured plan?  More aggressive?  A measured RIP wouldn't see any veteran OFs traded and selectively play the rookies as needed.  A more aggressive RIP would see one or more of Hays/Santander traded.  This directly impacts the "waves" to deal from as @StottyByNature apply put it.

I'd give it less than a 5% chance that Santander is QO'd.  Unless I'm underestimating his veteranosity no way we're paying him $20m when we have prospects or cheaper FA options.  But I kinda doubt he's traded because he a core offensive player to the 2024 team.  The QO wouldn't weigh any in a decision to trade him or not IMO.

I think Mullins is back in 2024 and 2025 as part of the EBJ RIP.  We might see Mullins in LF and EBJ in CF.  Could be a pretty athletic OF that season.  

I tend to think Hays' skillset is more likely to be replaceable (compared to Santander's offense) with our set of rookies in 2024.  Which means I think he's more likely to be traded than Santander.  BUT Cowser could just as easily be traded too if the SigBot projects Beavers with more upside long-term AND the return is significantly more than what Hays would bring back.  I think this is Elias' big decision for 2024.

 

What I think will happen - 

2024 - Mullins, Cowser, HK, Santander, backup CF

2025 is an all LHH OF - Mullins, Cowser, HK, EBJ - so the best RHH hitting OF (maybe a FA? Norby?)

 

Which leaves the rest as tradable.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

Man this is just my opinion and it's not founded on a whole lot, but I kind of feel like the whole "playing LF in Camden Yards" thing is overblown. Hays is slow as dirt but he takes solid reads, has a good arm, and gives a lot of effort. But it's not like he's some defensive wizard. Yet the team has become sort of fixated on him out there, and with the concept of having a CF-lite guy in LF. I don't know if I buy it. If a guy gets good reads, he's gonna be fine out there. A few are going to drop in and that's just the nature of the dimensions. 

So my soapbox take is that Kjerstad or Cowser or Beavers or whatever young, athletic guy we put out there is probably going to do just fine. 

I wouldn’t call Hays slow as dirt.  At 27.5 ft/sec, he’s slightly above league average for a LF, slightly below the league median.  I do agree that the issue is a little overblown, but you wouldn’t want someone like Santander (26.7) out there.  

[sportsfan8703]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You keep talking about Beavers size.  Cowser is listed at 6’2, 220.  Hays 5’ll” 200.   What advantages are you saying they have because of their size?

I’ll just defer to Elias. If he trades Cowser then that tells me he has someone in mind for 2025 when Hays has to be traded. I guess we’ll wait and see. 

 If Cowser is the hold up, and Elias believed Beavers could play LF, I think we’d see Cowser traded. If not, I don’t think Elias chooses to open up a hole in LF for the org when he knows he doesn’t have FA money.

The easy solution is that @Sports Guy will just say now sign a big money FA to fill LF, but we know that ain’t happening. Just saying ownership is terrible doesn’t solve the LF hole. I don’t think Elias elects that option. He also puts a premium on defense. Cowser > Beavers in LF. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I’ll just defer to Elias. If he trades Cowser then that tells me he has someone in mind for 2025 when Hays has to be traded. I guess we’ll wait and see. 

 If Cowser is the hold up, and Elias believed Beavers could play LF, I think we’d see Cowser traded. If not, I don’t think Elias chooses to open up a hole in LF for the org when he knows he doesn’t have FA money.

The easy solution is that @Sports Guy will just say now sign a big money FA to fill LF, but we know that ain’t happening. Just saying ownership is terrible doesn’t solve the LF hole. I don’t think Elias elects that option. He also puts a premium on defense. Cowser > Beavers in LF. 

I never said anything about signing someone to a big money deal but you haven’t let facts get in the way of anything else you have said here, so why start now?

[sportsfan8703]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I never said anything about signing someone to a big money deal but you haven’t let facts get in the way of anything else you have said here, so why start now?

You also criticize Hicks’ defense when Hicks is a better OF defender right now than Beavers.

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

You also criticize Hicks’ defense when Hicks is a better OF defender right now than Beavers.

Have you ever seen Dylan Beavers play the outfield?

[StottyByNature]

23 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Tough decisions every year with a competitive stockpile of prospects.  The Rookie Integration Plan (RIP) matters.  2022 had a few SPs, RPs, and Adley.  2023 had Gunnar and Grayson given a long-ish leash, and then selected timing/short leash for a few others.  

Does 2024 continue that measured plan?  More aggressive?  A measured RIP wouldn't see any veteran OFs traded and selectively play the rookies as needed.  A more aggressive RIP would see one or more of Hays/Santander traded.  This directly impacts the "waves" to deal from as @StottyByNature apply put it.

I'd give it less than a 5% chance that Santander is QO'd.  Unless I'm underestimating his veteranosity no way we're paying him $20m when we have prospects or cheaper FA options.  But I kinda doubt he's traded because he a core offensive player to the 2024 team.  The QO wouldn't weigh any in a decision to trade him or not IMO.

I think Mullins is back in 2024 and 2025 as part of the EBJ RIP.  We might see Mullins in LF and EBJ in CF.  Could be a pretty athletic OF that season.  

I tend to think Hays' skillset is more likely to be replaceable (compared to Santander's offense) with our set of rookies in 2024.  Which means I think he's more likely to be traded than Santander.  BUT Cowser could just as easily be traded too if the SigBot projects Beavers with more upside long-term AND the return is significantly more than what Hays would bring back.  I think this is Elias' big decision for 2024.

 

What I think will happen - 

2024 - Mullins, Cowser, HK, Santander, backup CF

2025 is an all LHH OF - Mullins, Cowser, HK, EBJ - so the best RHH hitting OF (maybe a FA? Norby?)

 

Which leaves the rest as tradable.

I actually think Santander is a prime QO candidate.  You either get a comp pick for him or you slightly overpay for a year of his prime.  Keeps payroll flexibility while maintaining an important player on the team, or get some value if he walks.  I don't think he'd garner much in the trade market so I'm happy to hang on to him.

[Just Regular]

With his strong growth mindset skills, I believe Jordan Westburg could manage a decent LF or RF by 2026 if Kjerstad, Cowser, Beavers and Bradfield can't cover starter jobs when Mullins departs.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Just Regular said:

With his strong growth mindset skills, I believe Jordan Westburg could manage a decent LF or RF by 2026 if Kjerstad, Cowser, Beavers and Bradfield can't cover starter jobs when Mullins departs.

He has the speed for it but anything further than that is a big assumption.

[sportsfan8703]

10 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Have you ever seen Dylan Beavers play the outfield?

The same amount that everyone decided that signing Hicks over bringing up Cowser was some travesty. 

Let me just make sure that I have the talking points straight. Cease is a true ACE that will push us over the top. Beavers is just as good as Cowser, because Cease will likely cost us Cowser. Follow along… gotta keep the Cease savior idea. Beavers is better defensively than Hicks.

That’s a lot of mental gymnastics to justify trading for Dylan Cease. 

[Just Regular]

2 minutes ago, StottyByNature said:

I actually think Santander is a prime QO candidate.  You either get a comp pick for him or you slightly overpay for a year of his prime.  Keeps payroll flexibility while maintaining an important player on the team, or get some value if he walks.  I don't think he'd garner much in the trade market so I'm happy to hang on to him.

After Bellinger, we'll see what kind of guarantee Jorge Soler pulls.    I'm an Anthony "Qualifying Offer" Santander cheerleader, but think more of a Best Case 2024 will be needed to get there.   Soler is about 2.67 years older, a big gap I believe for whether one of the Sigbots would offer a 3/50 or 4/70 kind of incentive to pass up ~1/22.

[RZNJ]

14 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The same amount that everyone decided that signing Hicks over bringing up Cowser was some travesty. 

Let me just make sure that I have the talking points straight. Cease is a true ACE that will push us over the top. Beavers is just as good as Cowser, because Cease will likely cost us Cowser. Follow along… gotta keep the Cease savior idea. Beavers is better defensively than Hicks.

That’s a lot of mental gymnastics to justify trading for Dylan Cease. 

No one said any of those things.  I think you fell off the balance beam during your mental gymnastics.   

We don’t know enough about Dylan Beavers defense to be making definitive statements.  The scouting reports suggest that he should be able to handle LF at OPACY.  You are the one making definitive statements that he’s worse than Hays, Cowser, and Hicks.

[btdart20]

9 minutes ago, StottyByNature said:

I actually think Santander is a prime QO candidate.  You either get a comp pick for him or you slightly overpay for a year of his prime.  Keeps payroll flexibility while maintaining an important player on the team, or get some value if he walks.  I don't think he'd garner much in the trade market so I'm happy to hang on to him.

That's fair.  If he's offered a QO, he's accepting the QO.  The draft pick doesn't really factor in.  It's all about the team control of Santander in that path.

[LookinUp]

17 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The same amount that everyone decided that signing Hicks over bringing up Cowser was some travesty. 

Let me just make sure that I have the talking points straight. Cease is a true ACE that will push us over the top. Beavers is just as good as Cowser, because Cease will likely cost us Cowser. Follow along… gotta keep the Cease savior idea. Beavers is better defensively than Hicks.

That’s a lot of mental gymnastics to justify trading for Dylan Cease. 

Is it really? Is it wrong to consider the value of adding a #3 or better starter for 2 years (and 180 innings each) as being more valuable than the difference between good and average defense in left field over a maximum of 6 years? I say maximum because of course some other + LFer could show up in the intervening period? 

Unless I'm getting this wrong, you're essentially hung up on a larger trade over something like 4 outs per year.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Fielder&startYear=2023&endYear=2023&split=yes&team=&range=year&min=q&pos=7&roles=&viz=hide