Cease vs everyone else

[Roll Tide]

1 minute ago, wildbillhiccup said:

It feels like we're splitting hairs here. All I'm saying is that there will be less margin for error with fewer high draft picks (in the future). Can we just agree on that point? 

With the ROY pick, our regular slot, and the competitive balance pick. We have three picks in the first 35 or so. He found Gunnar in the second round. Sure it’s obviously not going to be as easy as the 1st pick in the draft but I have faith at our decision makers to draft and develop, and supplement with international players that we really have never been as prepared as we are now.

[emmett16]

4 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

 and fingers crossed that they do. 

And together we will get the Cease thread to 300+.  

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, wildbillhiccup said:

It feels like we're splitting hairs here. All I'm saying is that there will be less margin for error with fewer high draft picks (in the future). Can we just agree on that point? 

Seems like a fair point to me.  Without top 5 picks and the pool money that goes along with it, it will be tougher.  Period.  At the same time, as that happens the Latin American program seems to be producing (4 players from the 2022 class in the FCL top 20, along with Basallo (2021).   I also think last years amateur draft had more input from the developmental side of the organization and it might be one of, if not, the deepest drafts we’ve had.  Hitting on a Henderson or Holliday on the amateur side will be tougher but I still like our chances of finding Cowser, Kjerstad, and Westburg types.  In fact, I’d say that Beavers and Horvath might compare favorably over the next 12 months.

[emmett16]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Seems like a fair point to me.  Without top 5 picks and the pool money that goes along with it, it will be tougher.  Period.  At the same time, as that happens the Latin American program seems to be producing (4 players from the 2022 class in the FCL top 20, along with Basallo (2021).   I also think last years amateur draft had more input from the developmental side of the organization and it might be one of, if not, the deepest drafts we’ve had.  Hitting on a Henderson or Holliday on the amateur side will be tougher but I still like our chances of finding Cowser, Kjerstad, and Westburg types.  In fact, I’d say that Beavers and Horvath might compare favorably over the next 12 months.

I think the big piece that wasn’t brought up (until now) is the draft pool money.

Don’t sleep on the 53rd pick from last year.  Kids a stud.  

Edited January 14 by emmett16

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I think the big piece that wasn’t brought up (until now) is the draft pool money.

Don’t sleep on the 53rd pick from last year.  Kids a stud.  

I've mentioned it.

Mayo got high second round money.  Gunnar got more than 500K over slot.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I've mentioned it.

Mayo got high second round money.  Gunnar got more than 500K over slot.

Right.  No savings on Bradfield last year and still able to go 600k over for Baumeister.  It’s more difficult but it’s doable.

[Guest]

3 hours ago, emmett16 said:

Heh?  They tanked, sure.  But to say that was the sole strategy you’re missing the boat.  They turned over almost the entire organization,  built an international program from scratch, built a DR training facility, implemented new age development techniques, and started the pipeline that will be delivering players for years to come.  Their strategy wasnt tanking.  They built an entire new baseball organization from scratch.  I’ll give them a pass on not wasting money on the MLB product during that process, I’ll also wait patiently to see how the 2024 roster unfolds because every single poster (including myself) has been proven wrong when doubting them.  

These aren’t strategies to gain a competitive advantage nor are they anything new. It should be commended (and been done a long time ago) but does not give the Orioles a unique strength

[emmett16]

4 hours ago, brooooksy said:

They haven’t won anything.

they rebuilt 2014-2018. What this poster is arguing is that what the orioles are doing now will somehow not require a rebuild

They’re obviously successful, but limited by their payroll from making a sustained run or winning it all. 

BTW - their most recent run is inflated by the tanking orioles throwing games (8-32)

And their superior run differential last year (with a higher payroll) was deflated by the 101 win Orioles who found a unique competitive  advantage.  Ironic, don’t you think? 

[OriolesMagic83]

7 hours ago, brooooksy said:

They haven’t won anything.

they rebuilt 2014-2018. What this poster is arguing is that what the orioles are doing now will somehow not require a rebuild

They’re obviously successful, but limited by their payroll from making a sustained run or winning it all. 

BTW - their most recent run is inflated by the tanking orioles throwing games (8-32)

The only way for the O's or a team on a similarly limited farm system to replenish the farm is to trade their top players with a year or two before free agency.  The O's can't let their best players hit free agency and only get a draft pick or get a last minute Machado type of return.

[Roll Tide]

9 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I've mentioned it.

Mayo got high second round money.  Gunnar got more than 500K over slot.

By taking this approach and international talent is key. But, the Rays have made trades but still have produced homegrown guys without the benefit of high picks

[RZNJ]

Assuming Elias has actually made an offer for Cease here’s my guess and why.

Norby, Beavers, Povich, Baumann

1. A low ball offer but along the lines of the Flaherty deal, quantity but with a better grade of prospects.

2. A WS “insider” said that Getz wanted Norby.  Our Husker fan mentioned Povich was available even though he mentioned a different team.

3. Beavers is behind Cowser, Kjerstad, and maybe even Mayo for COF.

4. Baumann is out of options, in danger of not making our bullpen, but easily makes the WS, also cheap with tons of service time.  Can even try starting him again.

White Sox holding out for a headliner like Basallo, Mayo, or Kjerstad.  Rumors are that big 3, + Kjerstad/Cowser are not on the table.

From an Oriole fan perspective, anyone, I think, would do this deal in a NY minute.  Getz can’t do it without one big prospect name coming back.   No other team seems willing to step up (Red Sox with Mayer/Anthony), (Reds with Marte), (Yankees with Jones).   Does Getz cave in for the best deal out there?   Does Elias substitute Kjerstad for Beavers (and possibly Ortiz for Norby) to make it happen?    
 

 

[Tony-OH]

14 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

here’s your data coolie….

Fact …. The Orioles were 20-13 in Gibson’s starts. In 15 of them he hung around long enough to win and pile on innings to save our bullpen. And they lost 5 games after he departed. So it’s fair to say 5 of the 13 losses weren’t his fault. So of 33 starts he could be held responsible for exactly 8 losses. He sucked! 

I think that says a lot about his contribution that you devalued because it was centered on Wins. 

As of right now not resigning him was a blunder. I would’ve rather signed Gibson to the contract he got than waste $13 million on Kimbrel who the Phillies fans couldn’t wait to run out of town 
 

 

While I think Gibson ended up doing the job of a 1 year, $10 million starter last year, I do not think he's a guy they should have resigned. 

They needed to upgrade that and a pitcher like Cease does upgrade the rotation. While I don't necessarily think Cease is an absolute stud that you give up the farm for (seem that's what the white sox want), he certainly is a better overall pitcher than Gibson.

Now, if the Orioles fail to land him or another starter at that level, would Gibson had made some sense at $13 million a year, perhaps, but he's not the guy you land early in the offseason.

The Orioles have some decent backup options in case they don't land a quality top 1-3 starter, but I think they should be past signing mediocrity to fill out there rotation. 

[SoxFan3344]

Nightengale this morning said Sox asking for either Cowser or Kjerstad as the headliner. Mentioned Spencer Jones or Chase Hampton from the Yankees also. Very reasonable asks of both teams. 

[Tony-OH]

I think we've reached that part of the offseason where there's not much that hasn't been discussed so now everyone gets testy!

Still, we're only 52 pages away from 300 on this one so keep at it, but try and be nice!

Remember, they're just opinions not personal attacks on you as a person. Even if you are wrong!

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, SoxFan3344 said:

Nightengale this morning said Sox asking for either Cowser or Kjerstad as the headliner. Mentioned Spencer Jones or Chase Hampton from the Yankees also. Very reasonable asks of both teams. 

Spencer Jones bust potential is MUCH higher than either Kjerstad or Cowser.  I don’t see that as equal asks.