Cease vs everyone else

[Sports Guy]

34 minutes ago, Aglets said:

So the logic is that if no one will meet their asking price for 2 full seasons of Cease........... maybe some team will meet it for 1.5 seasons of him?

I guess if one team is really desperate maybe.   I don't really see Elias going for that though.

You almost always get more for pitchers at the deadline vs the offseason.

They definitely could get more. It’s like Flacco betting on himself. It does and can work.

The question is, what would they be walking away from?  What has been offered? Have they been offered a worthy package but not a ridiculous package? 

Lets say the best the Os have offered is something like Ortiz, Beavers and Povich. If I were them, I would hold Cease too. I would gamble that I can get that at the deadline and likely more.

He could get hurt, so you may get nothing but Cease has been very durable and they have improved the defense, so his numbers could/should get better.

But it’s no doubt a gamble…whether it’s a worthy gamble of not solely depends on what has been offered.

[Sports Guy]

Go get Edward Cabrera

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You almost always get more for pitchers at the deadline vs the offseason.

 

I doubt any evidence supports this claim.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I doubt any evidence supports this claim.

Hard to prove but it’s the conventional wisdom.   More sense of urgency for playoff contenders and more competition for the same pool of available pitchers.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Hard to prove but it’s the conventional wisdom.   More sense of urgency for playoff contenders and more competition for the same pool of available pitchers.

And all the guys that get hurt or underperform aren't remembered. 

I'm not saying it might not be true but conventional wisdom has been wrong before.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And all the guys that get hurt or underperform aren't remembered. 

I'm not saying it might not be true but conventional wisdom has been wrong before.

Just talking about all things being equal and not factoring in bad performance and injury.  Absolutely, if Cease gets injured or has a terrible 1st half they could do a lot worse.

[LTO's]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Hard to prove but it’s the conventional wisdom.   More sense of urgency for playoff contenders and more competition for the same pool of available pitchers.

More sense of urgency for playoff contenders, maybe. Is there the same pool of available pitchers though? Seems like every year teams that needed innings or aren't explicitly tanking shop guys at the deadline that weren't available before opening day. 

[ChicagoTerp]

1 hour ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

This has been mentioned elsewhere but starting to see it everywhere. Could be another leverage play but it sounds like they're not budging. Best not to meet an unreasonable price if that's ultimately the case.

This is exactly the tweet I'd expect to see right before Cease gets traded tbh

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Just talking about all things being equal and not factoring in bad performance and injury.  Absolutely, if Cease gets injured or has a terrible 1st half they could do a lot worse.

But guys getting hurt and playing poorly are part of the equation.

Just like relievers coming out of nowhere and jumping up from no value to good value is part of the equation.

I think most teams would rather have two years of a solid performer than 1.5 years.

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But guys getting hurt and playing poorly are part of the equation.

Just like relievers coming out of nowhere and jumping up from no value to good value is part of the equation.

I think most teams would rather have two years of a solid performer than 1.5 years.

On your last sentence.  I think teams don’t know how bad they want or need that solid performer until they see where they are in July.  Look at the Orioles right now.  They’d like Cease but they might be a playoff team without him.  Means might be a really good #3.  McDermott or Povich might get off to great starts in Norfolk.  Or none of that might happen, one of the main starters goes down with injury but they’re still in the playoff race on July 25.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

On your last sentence.  I think teams don’t know how bad they want or need that solid performer until they see where they are in July.  Look at the Orioles right now.  They’d like Cease but they might be a playoff team without him.  Means might be a really good #3.  McDermott or Povich might get off to great starts in Norfolk.  Or none of that might happen, one of the main starters goes down with injury but they’re still in the playoff race on July 25.

Sure.

Whatever.

Just comments like "You almost always get more for pitchers at the deadline vs the offseason." are just not up to snuff in my opinion.

 

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure.

Whatever.

Just comments like "You almost always get more for pitchers at the deadline vs the offseason." are just not up to snuff in my opinion.

 

Again, I think the unspoken part is the “all things being equal”.    All things aren’t always equal, for sure.

[CaptainRedbeard]

So, if the Orioles don’t make a trade, they can before the trade deadline:

(1) Sign Paxton/Ryu/RPs and get through the first half with them, Irvin, Hall and Wells.

(2) Start both Ortiz and Westburg at the MLB level, keeping Holliday and Mayo in AAA past the Super 2 deadline and allowing Ortiz/Westburg to either establish themselves as MLB caliber starters and increase their value, or determine whether they’re best suited as bench players. 

(3) Better evaluate whether Mayo will be a 3B, RF or 1B, further informing which other players are best as trade pieces. 

(4) See if Povich/McDermott take steps forward that make them second half rotation options. 

It would certainly be better if they were willing to spend on better free agents or could find a fair deal for a SP. But we know they won’t spend and it doesn’t seem like they missed out on a SP trade where they could have beaten another team’s offer.

There are some silver linings to this outcome but it feels like just kicking the can until they really should trade some infielders.

The biggest downside, other than the fact that their rotation could really benefit from a quality #3 or better in the first half, is that if Holliday/Mayo come into Spring Training and look really ready for a promotion the only way to do that is to send Ortiz back to AAA, which could hurt Ortiz’s value. 

[Sports Guy]

If you don’t add another legit starter, there will be a lot of pressure on Bradish and GRod to have 60+ starts.

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If you don’t add another legit starter, there will be a lot of pressure on Bradish and GRod to have 60+ starts.

The pressure on Bradish and GRod to remain healthy and effective is no different whether we get another starter or not.   The only difference is the margin for error for the team as a whole.