Cease vs everyone else

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

We've been through this several times before. You've made your opinion well known. Posting it a million times and trying to insult other board members, isn't going to make it right. It just shows you have way too much time on your hands.

You said I must not like stats. He literally had a 110 ERA+ in 2021. It’s not an insult to say it’s foolish to say that was a poor year. It’s a fact to say it’s foolish to say that.

I can get into a lot of other things but the assertion that he has been poor is absurd and is one of the single worst takes ever on this board.

So yea, I question if you understand stats when the stats clearly say that’s a foolish opinion and thing to say.

Edited January 20 by Sports Guy

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I think that’s an overpay but we also keep all of the guys that most people want to keep so it’s worth discussing.  I do wonder if the WS would want 3 outfielders in a deal and whether the Orioles would include three.  Probably have to replace one outfielder with a pitcher.

Yeah … it’s worth discussing and switching a player out if necessary. As I’ve mentioned, I really don’t prefer Cease but it was interesting that they seemed to be agreeable. 

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

We've been through this several times before. You've made your opinion well known. Posting it a million times and trying to insult other board members, isn't going to make it right. It just shows you have way too much time on your hands.

It’s my general feeling that the W Sox are trying to sell Cease on his potential rather than who he’s generally been. The underlying stats that getting pushed In the faces of posters include FIP while your basically being told to ignore ERA, Wins, BB/9 etc. I think Cease is a good pitcher that can be very good when things lineup as they did a few years ago. 

[Malike]

Cease clearly has value and would upgrade the rotation, but don't buy the nonsense that he's a number 1 starter. He's not.

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, Malike said:

Cease clearly has value and would upgrade the rotation, but don't buy the nonsense that he's a number 1 starter. He's not.

Maybe not, but he was a #1 in 2022 so he’s shown the talent to actually do it.

[RZNJ]

3 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

It’s my general feeling that the W Sox are trying to sell Cease on his potential rather than who he’s generally been. The underlying stats that getting pushed In the faces of posters include FIP while your basically being told to ignore ERA, Wins, BB/9 etc. I think Cease is a good pitcher that can be very good when things lineup as they did a few years ago. 

A few years ago was 2022 and not sure what you mean by “when things line up”.   He had a great season,  He pitched great.  It happened.

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

A few years ago was 2022 and not sure what you mean by “when things line up”.   He had a great season,  He pitched great.  It happened.

I mean everything has to come together. But, maybe not ….he walked a crap load even in his CY young season. He was unhittable 6.2 per 9. Looking at that season his FIP was 3.10 was worse than his ERA 2.20. Plus he gave up 45 home runs 2 years ago and 90 ERs last year.

I just don’t see it …

there is maybe a 10-15% chance he’s similar to his 2022 performance. Considering the asking price I don’t think it’s worth the stretch. I’d go after Luzardo or one of the Seattle guys. And I’d bite the bullet and make one of Kjerstad, Cowser, Basallo available in that deal. I’d still prefer to hang onto Mayo and Holiday is untouchable because I’m sure he is. 

[dystopia]

6 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

It’s my general feeling that the W Sox are trying to sell Cease on his potential rather than who he’s generally been. The underlying stats that getting pushed In the faces of posters include FIP while your basically being told to ignore ERA, Wins, BB/9 etc. I think Cease is a good pitcher that can be very good when things lineup as they did a few years ago. 

Yup and that’s why nobody is meeting their asking price. 

[Roll Tide]

13 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Yup and that’s why nobody is meeting their asking price. 

And a GM that’s a rookie and probably overwhelmed. I won’t speak to whether he’s really qualified or not as I have no idea.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

I mean everything has to come together. But, maybe not ….he walked a crap load even in his CY young season. He was unhittable 6.2 per 9. Looking at that season his FIP was 3.10 was worse than his ERA 2.20. Plus he gave up 45 home runs 2 years ago and 90 ERs last year.

I just don’t see it …

there is maybe a 10-15% chance he’s similar to his 2022 performance. Considering the asking price I don’t think it’s worth the stretch. I’d go after Luzardo or one of the Seattle guys. And I’d bite the bullet and make one of Kjerstad, Cowser, Basallo available in that deal. I’d still prefer to hang onto Mayo and Holiday is untouchable because I’m sure he is. 

I wish you would learn how to read BRef.   Cease has never given up more than 20 home runs in any season.  45?!

The price for Luzardo will be huge which is why that won’t happen.   Lumping Basallo in with Cowser and Kjerstad shows that you don’t want to learn.  Tony has told you he’s not the same.  BP and Baseball America have told you. I assume MLB will tell you.   

[Morgan423]

Different eras, sure, but I just saw someone in another fan forum last night who pointed out (and apologies if it's already been discussed elsewhere in this massive thread and I'm rehashing) that current Cease is extremely statistically similar to Erik Bedard at the time we traded him to the Mariners.

I definitely hadn't caught that, and it's an interesting review of possible value, and if current day can be equated in any way to then. 

Bedard at time of Seattle trade:

Age 28, 5 years in majors, W40-L34, 3.83 ERA, 118 ERA+, 3.59 FIP - 2 years left on contract

Cease, current:

Age 28, 5 years in majors, W43-L35, 3.83 ERA, 113 ERA+, 3.86 FIP - 2 years left on contract



 

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, Morgan423 said:

Different eras, sure, but I just saw someone in another fan forum last night who pointed out (and apologies if it's already been discussed elsewhere in this massive thread and I'm rehashing) that current Cease is extremely statistically similar to Erik Bedard at the time we traded him to the Mariners.

I definitely hadn't caught that, and it's an interesting review of possible value, and if current day can be equated in any way to then. 

Bedard at time of Seattle trade:

Age 28, 5 years in majors, W40-L34, 3.83 ERA, 118 ERA+, 3.59 FIP - 2 years left on contract

Cease, current:

Age 28, 5 years in majors, W43-L35, 3.83 ERA, 113 ERA+, 3.86 FIP - 2 years left on contract



 

The major difference is that Bedard was coming off of a huge year. Just to use one stat for comparison…Bedard had a 146 ERA+ and Cease had a 97 ERA+.
 

 

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

I wish you would learn how to read BRef.   Cease has never given up more than 20 home runs in any season.  45?!

The price for Luzardo will be huge which is why that won’t happen.   Lumping Basallo in with Cowser and Kjerstad shows that you don’t want to learn.  Tony has told you he’s not the same.  BP and Baseball America have told you. I assume MLB will tell you.   

It not a reading error … sometimes the IPad changes a word on you. It was 90 ER last year over giving up 45 the year before. I should’ve proofread

 

What’s learning got do with anything…. I don’t care where you Tony or anybody else has Basallo ranked. He’s a younger prospect and hopefully he becomes a Tejada type hitter or better. Huge ceiling but he still has the floor that most younger prospects has. I just said I’d deal one those guy to get a pitcher with more control like Luzardo or Braxton Garrett. It would be worth it especially the later even if he becomes Basallo becomes a stud.

that said I/Me would prefer to hang on to Mayo and Holiday. You simply can’t make a call about one of those starter and say none of my top guys are available. Which is probably what Elias is doing that only allows trades for Jack Flaherty types. 

 

 

Edited January 20 by Roll Tide

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

It not a reading error … sometimes the IPad changes a word on you. It was 90 ER last year over giving up 45 the year before. I should’ve proofread

 

What’s learning got do with anything…. I don’t care where you Tony or anybody else has Basallo ranked. He’s a younger prospect and hopefully he becomes a Tejada type hitter or better. Huge ceiling but he still has the floor that most younger prospects has. I just said I’d deal one those guy to get a pitcher with more control like Luzardo or Braxton Garrett. It would be worth it especially the latte even if he becomes a stud.

that said I/Me would prefer to hang on to Mayo and Holiday. You simply can’t make a call about one of those starter and say none of my top guys are available. Which is probably what Elias is doing that only allows trades for Jack Flaherty types. 

 

 

You don’t care where anyone has Basallo ranked.    You know better.   Lol

[Roll Tide]

20 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You don’t care where anyone has Basallo ranked.    You know better.   Lol

Where he's ranked by others doesn't matter to me. I said I'd deal him especially for Braxton Garrett. If you wouldn't thats perfectly fine. Of our guys ranked higher than Ortiz, Id prefer to keep Mayo and Holiday. Can't keep em all IMO