Jump to content

Cease vs everyone else


Sports Guy

Recommended Posts

18 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

If the ceiling is everyday shortstop but second division regular that’s not super valuable given the very real fact he could bust altogether.  Again, I like him as a prospect, but I don’t think he’s anywhere close to a top 50 guy and more in the 80 to 100 range.  Just my opinion and apparently not a popular one here.

It didn’t say anything about ceiling. He’s a good defensive SS with “plus plus instincts”. He’s ops’d .925 at AAA over 400 ABs over the past 2 seasons. If his bat plays at .800 OPS he’d be a pretty valuable player. 

Edited by Roll Tide
  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

If the ceiling is everyday shortstop but second division regular that’s not super valuable given the very real fact he could bust altogether.  Again, I like him as a prospect, but I don’t think he’s anywhere close to a top 50 guy and more in the 80 to 100 range.  Just my opinion and apparently not a popular one here.

You’re quoting Baseball America as an expert on Ortiz and then disregarding that they have him rated at #63.  What do you base the 80-100 range on?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

It didn’t say anything about ceiling. He’s a good defensive SS with “plus plus instincts”. He’s ops’d .925 at AAA over 400 ABs over the past 2 seasons. If his bat plays at .800 OPS he’d be a pretty valuable player. 

If Ortiz OPS .700 he’d be a valuable player assuming his defense is GG caliber.  An .800 OPS and you’re talking all-star caliber player.  I think that’s possible but I’d be surprised if he’s not a .700 guy based on what he’s done since July 2022.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

If the ceiling is everyday shortstop but second division regular that’s not super valuable given the very real fact he could bust altogether.  Again, I like him as a prospect, but I don’t think he’s anywhere close to a top 50 guy and more in the 80 to 100 range.  Just my opinion and apparently not a popular one here.

Well, our fearless leader believes his ceiling is first division starting shortstop, but not everyone has that opinion.   What matters is what Getz and Elias think, and who knows what that is.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Speaking of things that make us a little nervous.

1.418 WHIP

Declining K rate 3 straight years.

Increasing walk rate 3 straight years.

1 mph lost on fastball in 2023.

Numbers can be spun any way.  Here let me try:

  • 8th in fWAR from 2021 to 2023
  • 5th in Stuff+ from 2021 to 2023
  • 4th in K/9 from 2021 to 2023
  • 1st in starts from 2021 to 2023
  • AL Cy Young runner-up in 2022
  • 10th in average velocity despite 1 MPH decline
  • xERA only 0.25 points worse than “TOR starter” Bradish despite down season

🤔

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

48 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

If the ceiling is everyday shortstop but second division regular that’s not super valuable given the very real fact he could bust altogether.  Again, I like him as a prospect, but I don’t think he’s anywhere close to a top 50 guy and more in the 80 to 100 range.  Just my opinion and apparently not a popular one here.

I think you are off on his upside.  He’s a 3-4 WAR upside guy. His defense alone will probably be worth 2ish WAR.

I also think he’s more of a 70-100 range guy because of his age but I also think many guys ahead of him who are ranked high because of age are more likely to fail and be nothing at the ML level than him.

Edited by Sports Guy
Link to comment
Share on other sites

58 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I saw someone in that thread say he is legit but who knows.

He broke the Lynn trade a few years ago, but unfortunately many of these internet “insiders” get one random piece of info and then try to parlay it into a long-term thing for reasons unknown (attention?) despite not having repeatable source.  Again, I don’t really buy what he says anymore, just posted it to drive some friendly discussion here.  Not sure why that offended the same people posting garbage rumors that serve their cause.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

You don’t trade Kremer and Kjerstad isn’t a great idea if they are planning to move the guys like Hays and Santander before free agency 

If I got 5 years of my number 3 in return, plus I believe in Cowser/Mayo + Beavers/Fabian to fill those roles you do.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Numbers can be spun any way.  Here let me try:

  • 8th in fWAR from 2021 to 2023
  • 5th in Stuff+ from 2021 to 2023
  • 4th in K/9 from 2021 to 2023
  • 1st in starts from 2021 to 2023
  • AL Cy Young runner-up in 2022
  • 10th in average velocity despite 1 MPH decline
  • xERA only 0.25 points worse than “TOR starter” Bradish despite down season

🤔

I’m not trying to spin anything.  You took a glowing report on Ortiz and focused on one line and said it made you nervous.  There are certainly things we can find about Cease that make me nervous.  
 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

It didn’t say anything about ceiling. He’s a good defensive SS with “plus plus instincts”. He’s ops’d .925 at AAA over 400 ABs over the past 2 seasons. If his bat plays at .800 OPS he’d be a pretty valuable player. 

You think he’s going to put up a .800 OPS?  There were six qualified SS’s last year that exceeded that figure.  Quite the lofty expectation for a guy with below average power.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

If the ceiling is everyday shortstop but second division regular that’s not super valuable given the very real fact he could bust altogether.  Again, I like him as a prospect, but I don’t think he’s anywhere close to a top 50 guy and more in the 80 to 100 range.  Just my opinion and apparently not a popular one here.

MLB's latest prospect rankings have Ortiz at exactly 50 and Fangraphs had him at 66 before last season when he did really well at AAA.  He's now had about 500 PA's in AAA (2022-2023) and his line is in the neighborhood of .330/.385/.530/.915.  That's not bad especially with an age difference of -2 years compared to his peers.  I would be surprised if he's below 50 in any credible ranking system by the time the 2024 season begins.

We're still talking about Ortiz as the second piece in a Cease trade right?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You’re quoting Baseball America as an expert on Ortiz and then disregarding that they have him rated at #63.  What do you base the 80-100 range on?

I discount his value because of his age & lack of ceiling (my personal view) and I don’t believe he will still be at #63 when BA’s pre-season rankings are issued.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I discount his value because of his age & lack of ceiling (my personal view) and I don’t believe he will still be at #63 when BA’s pre-season rankings are issued.

Got it.  You like to go with BA when it suits your purposes but with your own personal view when it doesn’t.   Their last updated list was in September.  Hard to see what happened between September and February that is going to drop him 20 spots but I guess we’ll see.  MLB pipeline has him at #50.   
 

Keith Law had him at #36 on 7/31/23 when he did a top 60.  
 

Aram Leighton of justbaseball in October had him at #43.

Edited by RZNJ
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, our fearless leader believes his ceiling is first division starting shortstop, but not everyone has that opinion.   What matters is what Getz and Elias think, and who knows what that is.   

Fully agree.  I see Ortiz as a guy who is probably somewhat divisive in terms of front office evaluation.  I’m sure we all agree he’s a quality prospect, but I’ve read differing scouting reports on what his offensive ceiling really is.  And I just don’t buy that he’s a guy who could put up .800 OPS’s in the majors.  Maybe he proves me wrong, but I still maintain a more realistic ceiling is league average hitter.  And with his glove that’s valuable…if that outcome actually happens.  Again, he could end being a plus glove 70 wRC+ hitter and be someone you are constantly looking to upgrade from.  That’s the risk vs. reward dilemma that comes with prospects and why they aren’t worth as much as many fans realize.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think you are off on his upside.  He’s a 3-4 WAR upside guy. His defense alone will probably be worth 2ish WAR.

I also think he’s more of a 70-100 range guy because of his age but I also think many guys ahead of him who are ranked high because of age are more likely to fail and be nothing at the ML level than him.

Ezequiel Tovar was one of the better defensive SS’s last year and was only worth 1.6 wins because of a 70 wRC+.  Is Joey Ortiz really expected to be a top 3 three defensive SS?  A win floor from defense alone is pretty massive.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Posts

    • Passan drew this link between Dombrowski and Elias in his big piece for this week.     That's the basic question before us as Elias has excelled setting it all up...he's playing the highest stakes games now.      Adley's 3.5 years is perhaps ballpark similar to the timeframe the Phillies' great players remain a championship caliber nucleus.     Adley's final 3 years - unless payroll grows, the opportunity for rosters with Burnes-Santander-Kimbrel level supporting players may shrink a little. It's more about ensuring a window doesn't close without a team maximizing its opportunity. In this regard, the Phillies and Orioles are quite similar, though Dombrowski's counterpart in Baltimore, Mike Elias, gets a little more leeway because the Orioles' period of contention is longer than any team's. The Phillies' isn't short, by any means, but every year Bryce Harper (31 years old), Trea Turner (31), J.T. Realmuto (33), Zack Wheeler (34) and Aaron Nola (31) age is a year closer to an inevitable downturn. That's when, as an executive in charge, you push. And when it comes to a willingness to look past what a computer system suggests is proper value and potentially overpay for talent, nobody matches Dombrowski. Robert fits the bill and fills a need. 
    • Since I currently have Basallo 3rd, guess I have to be consistent and say he would go first.  I think Mayo and Basallo have the chance to be absolute impact power bats while I think Holliday has a chance to be a very good OBP guy with some pop.  I'd only say Basallo because he has more risk than the other other two and Orioles seem to be gradually transitioning from catch to 1B (he's basically split time between C and 1B since he was allowed to throw. Saying that, Basallo may have the highest ceiling bat wise of the three.  Mayo is the safest bet because he's major league ready now and has developed that game power now. The arm strength gives him a chance to stay at 3B for a bit but even if he transitions to 1B or RF he'll have value. Holliday hit just .222 in June in AAA but had a .444 OBP because if his ability to draw walks, walks that he might not get with major league umpires until he establishes himself.  Really, I'm not trading any of them, but if I had to, it's Basallo followed by Holliday.
    • Keep Holiday and when he’s ready , install him at 2B , keep Westy at 3B , Gunnar at SS and Mayo is our 1B . Then after we’re set at infield. keep one of Urias , Mateo or Norby as our utility backup.  I love Basallo but he’s the one ( if we plan on Skubal) to sacrifice  Just my opinion 
    • my answer would be D- None of the above
    • Trade NONE of them!  Keep Holliday, Mayo, Basallo!   (I'd even try to keep Kjerstad too!).   Package Stowers, McDermott, Norby, Bradfield, Beavers and 2 other lower minors guys!  
    • The Cowser talk is interesting. He’s extremely controversial on here for a rookie who is quite literally one of the best defensive OF’ers in the MLB (98th percentile), hits for well above average power, and has been a very valuable base runner too (95th percentile). Maybe it’s because nobody expected his defense to be that great, but he’s not Kjerstad, he arguably doesn’t even need to be a league average hitter to still be a 2-3 WAR guy with his defense/base running. He can certainly be frustrating to watch sometimes and needs to improve in higher leverage situations, but when I think of the best version of this Orioles team, it certainly involves Cowser in the OF. He’s a better player with a higher ceiling and floor than either Hays or Mullins and needs to play to see if he can work through some of his issues. Cowser is not Gunnar, but through 280 PA’s last year (Cowser is at 278 right now), Gunnar was striking out 32% of the time and hitting for slightly less power than Cowser is right now. The rest of the season he struck out 20.5% of the time and hit 17 HR’s. Again, Cowser isn’t Gunnar, but there’s little reason to cut his playing time when his ceiling is being the best OF’er on the team, and his floor is likely not any worse than what they’ve gotten from Mullins the past 2 seasons. He doesn’t need to play every single game but he should certainly be playing more than Mullins and Hays.
    • My point being, injuries happen. It's almost impossible for a team to win the World Series without good pitching. The Orioles need a rotation upgrade to have a chance at the title. 
  • Popular Contributors

  • Popular Now

×
×
  • Create New...