Santander for Bieber

[jamalshw]

This is incredibly tough to me, but ultimately I think it's a no. Bieber would immediately make the rotation better, no doubt there, but I do have some concerns about his K:9. It was 14.2 when he won the Cy Young in 2020. Granted, that was just 12 starts and thus a small sample, but it was 10.9 and 12.5 the year prior and after. Since the 12.5 mark in 2021 (also just 16 starts), it's dropped to 8.9 in 2022 and 7.5 last year. To go along with this dropping K rate, he also had his WHIP jump and his FIP jump a whole run per game (alongside his ERA making the same jump). He's still a solid pitcher, but I'm not sure I remove one of the best bats for him. 

Maybe if Cowser dominated in his time in the majors. While I do think Cowser and Kjerstad becoming replacements after next year, I'm not sure they're ready yet. There was a thread earlier about too many rookies, that would just exacerbate the problem unless we went out and signed a bat like Soler. And if that's the case, wouldn't it just be easier to add Gray or E-Rod? 

[wildcard]

I'd rather sign FA ERod, Giolito or Stroman and keep Santander.   But if the O's can't get there for one reason or another Santander for Bieber sounds like a fair deal if Bieber's elbow inflammation checks out to be not likely to return. 

[Sports Guy]

33 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

The more I think about it and the more I've read the arguments in this thread, the more I'd come around to it.  Don't get me wrong, I don't think Bieber is necessarily a great pickup but I also don't think Santander is a long term piece for here, like I said.  I don't think he's a core player, as much as I appreciate him.

Bieber could be a good guy for a change of scenery and good coaching and good analytics.  

To be fair, Cleveland knows how to develop pitchers.

[Moose Milligan]

41 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

To be fair, Cleveland knows how to develop pitchers.

They do.   

I thought I did see somewhere on here that said that his fastball velocity is down, too, though.  

[EddeeEddee]

I voted no because, although I'd like the O's to trade for Bieber, I don't think it should be using our best hitting outfielder.  Yes, I understand Santander will be a free agent soon and that we have several prospect outfielders who should be able to replace him, but I don't think we have seen enough to make me think anyone is quite ready to step in for him at the beginning of the season. We've been spoiled by the quick success of Adley and Gunnar -- assuming that all the young guys will respond just as quickly and consistently.  I'd rather ease Kjerstad and Cowser in and trade Santander before or at the trade deadline -- or not trade him at all if anyone else struggles or gets hurt -- including Mullins/Hays.  And I'd rather trade Montcastle and/or a different veteran and a couple of lower level prospects for Bieber (or someone similar).

[Since1984]

Someone recently posted Santander’s hitting splits at DH verses playing the field in 2023 and before (Frobby?) if Santander is not going to play as much in the field, I lean towards this trade. Do like his veteran bat in the O’s lineup as the O’s develop prospects into MLB hitters.

Westburg had a decent debut and if we expect that as the floor for others coming up in 2024, I’m a fan of this trade. We also can fill in better stats with less Mateo AB, etc.

[Just Regular]

Last four years percentiles scan on his Savant page looks like:

K rate - 98, 94, 65, 28

FB velo - 65, 36, 15, 13

If we got him, I might wonder a little if Bieber and Bradish as rotation mates is suboptimal.    I think of both as on the short list of Greatest Slider pitchers in the world.

Bieber's certainly entered the Dan Haren "I throw slow" phase of his career.     My memory of his ascent is he was a college pitchability stud where a smart pitching org helped him develop the velo to dominate for a time.

[Billy F-Face3]

If you trade Santander, you are giving away 100 runs on average. Who is going to replace those 100 runs that has just been taken off the team? You can't win if you can't score, and Beiber only plays once every 5 days for only 5 innings, so it's a net loss for the Orioles in this swap.

The only way this works is if you add another power bat who can provide Hyde with good match ups in the lineup from both sides of the plate like Santander does to replace that type of Middle Order production on offense.

I also think Beiber was showing signs of wear this past season. He broke down half way through the year.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Since1984 said:

Someone recently posted Santander’s hitting splits at DH verses playing the field in 2023 and before (Frobby?) if Santander is not going to play as much in the field, I lean towards this trade. Do like his veteran bat in the O’s lineup as the O’s develop prospects into MLB hitters.

Westburg had a decent debut and if we expect that as the floor for others coming up in 2024, I’m a fan of this trade. We also can fill in better stats with less Mateo AB, etc.

Santander is an average  defensive right fielder.  Kjerstad is a below average defensive outfielder at this point.   Cowser has the skills to be a plus right fielder but we have not seen that in the majors yet.  Cowser has a learning curve to get where Santander is offensively.  If he can ever get there. 

I mentioned about how Santander hits better when playing RF/1B than DH.   But Hyde will likely continue to give time at DH toggle his  legs  rest.

Edited November 20, 2023 by wildcard

[oriole]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Just be prepared to see O'Hearn in RF more than anyone is imagining in this thread.  

You act like this team doesn’t have a ton of depth in the OF. Kjerstad, Cowser, Norby, McKenna, Haskins, Hilliard, Mayo, Stowers…all better options than O’Hearn in the OF. 
 

Of course, very few of those options can hold a candle to Santander, but there’s also some there that can be even better. 

[Since1984]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Santander is an average  defensive right fielder.  Kjerstad is a below average defensive outfielder at this point.   Cowser has the skills to be a plus right fielder but we have not seen that in the majors yet.  Cowser has a learning curve to get where Santander is offensively.  If he can ever get there. 

I mentioned about how Santander hits better when playing RF/1B than DH.   But Hyde will likely continue to give time at DH toggle his  legs  rest.

I agree with you about Santander’s defense/offense loss, compared to projecting prospects for 2024. If Bieber is healthy, the O’s have a CY type of ceiling, or a mid-rotation guy who can play up in the playoffs. His 2023 down year matched Santander in bwar with injury and just 120 IP.

This trade scenario opens up flexibility on the roster, while adding a high ceiling SP who has won a CYA (understanding the drops the last two years). The O’s could keep one or two true CF backups on the roster and see how the bats play with Kjerstad and Cowser, etc.

These scenarios are exciting, given the history and I believe EM will add depth as usual!

[Jagwar]

I'd make the trade, but I would want a FA signing to replace Tony Tater's stats. Who would be available?

[Since1984]

Edit : Santander had 3 bwar not 1.8. Still think it’s worth it pending Bieber’s arm condition.

[HakunaSakata]

9 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

I'd make the trade, but I would want a FA signing to replace Tony Tater's stats. Who would be available?

Duvall? Renfroe? Both  would probably be pretty good / cheap bets to replace Tony's "taters". 

[NCRaven]

I’m against it simply because I’m not a Bieber believer.  His year after year trend doesn’t fill me with confidence that he’d actually prove more value than Gibson did.  I’m fine with including Santander in a trade for pitching.  Just want to aim higher.