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Santander for Bieber

Sports Guy

By Sports Guy
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Santander for Bieber  

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  1. 1. Would you trade Santander for Shane Bieber?

    • Yes
      53
    • No
      33

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sportsfan8703
sportsfan8703

I think we're better off with... Bradish, Grayson, Means, Kremer, Gibson/Wells/Hall/Irvin + Santander  than.... Bradish, Grayson, Means, Bieber, Kremer w/o Santander

Frobby
Frobby

Look, no disrespect to Santander intended, but he’s a 109 OPS+ hitter for his career, who’s been at 120 and 121 the last two years.   I can’t say Kjerstad will top 120 in his first year, but he might,

forphase1
forphase1

Just to be clear,  only once in his career has Santander had a .800 OPS or better.   It is possible?  Of course it's possible.   Is it so probable that a team with WS aspirations can write it in ink? 

Pickles Hangout Grand Counsel

Pickles

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Like when you said Santander was more valuable than Snell?

I said I didn't like Snell's risk profile.  I was right about it 2019-2022, and wrong about it 2018 and 2023.

Bieber isn't Snell.

So you're on the record then for Bieber being more valuable next year than Santander.  Duly noted.
Odds don't seem in your favor.

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RZNJ Hangout Grand Counsel

RZNJ

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I said I didn't like Snell's risk profile.  I was right about it 2019-2022, and wrong about it 2018 and 2023.

Bieber isn't Snell.

So you're on the record then for Bieber being more valuable next year than Santander.  Duly noted.
Odds don't seem in your favor.

Last year was the first time that Santander had more WAR than Bieber and Bieber missed 1/3 of the season.  So, sure, if Bieber can’t pitch and Santander plays a full season odds are in Santander’s favor.

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Pickles Hangout Grand Counsel

Pickles

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1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

That’s a risk.  He’s 28 and his fastball velocity was the same in 23 as 22.  Almost any pitcher available comes with some kind of risk.

You can't just dismiss risk with a generic "everything has risk" statement.  I could get hit by a bus tomorrow, I shouldn't start smoking cigarettes tonight.

This goes for @Sports Guy as well.

His K rate has almost HALVED since 2020.  HIs performance is basically going in one direction.  He missed time with an elbow injury this year in July.  He made two starts after that.  That's a lot of red flags.  They can't be ignored and just waved away as "everything has risk" just for the sake of doing something.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I said I didn't like Snell's risk profile.  I was right about it 2019-2022, and wrong about it 2018 and 2023.

Bieber isn't Snell.

So you're on the record then for Bieber being more valuable next year than Santander.  Duly noted.
Odds don't seem in your favor.

Well, you are completely wrong about his profile not being good 2019-2022. Literally nothing backs that up unless you want to ignore stats and performance.

I’m saying it’s an incredibly foolish statement to say it’s  an easy choice to say Santander will out produce him. There is no validity behind that statement.

That’s another way of saying it’s not even close…and sorry, but that’s really dumb.

Santander’s best season by fWAR is the equivalent Bieber’s worst full season.  So, unless Bieber is going to get hurt next year (and btw, even though it’s been better the last few years, AS doesn’t have a great history of health either), it’s very unlikely that Santander posts a higher WAR.

 

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Pickles Hangout Grand Counsel

Pickles

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1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Last year was the first time that Santander had more WAR than Bieber and Bieber missed 1/3 of the season.  So, sure, if Bieber can’t pitch and Santander plays a full season odds are in Santander’s favor.

He pitched 11 innings in the second half last year.  It's a fair question.

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Pickles Hangout Grand Counsel

Pickles

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Just now, Sports Guy said:

Well, you are completely wrong about his profile not being good 2019-2022. Literally nothing backs that up unless you want to ignore stats and performance.

I’m saying it’s an incredibly foolish statement to say it’s  an easy choice to say Santander will out produce him. There is no validity behind that statement.

That’s another way of saying it’s not even close…and sorry, but that’s really dumb.

Santander’s best season by fWAR is the equivalent Bieber’s worst full season.  So, unless Bieber is going to get hurt next year (and btw, even though it’s been better the last few years, AS doesn’t have a great history of health either), it’s very unlikely that Santander posts a higher WAR.

 

Snell was extremely mediocre from 2019-2022.  Either you don't understand what I'm saying, or you don't know Snell's career.

 

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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1 minute ago, Pickles said:

You can't just dismiss risk with a generic "everything has risk" statement.  I could get hit by a bus tomorrow, I shouldn't start smoking cigarettes tonight.

This goes for @Sports Guy as well.

His K rate has almost HALVED since 2020.  HIs performance is basically going in one direction.  He missed time with an elbow injury this year in July.  He made two starts after that.  That's a lot of red flags.  They can't be ignored and just waved away as "everything has risk" just for the sake of doing something.

So to be clear, if we wake up tomorrow and this deal happens, you will feel Elias made a huge mistake and is wrong for making the trade?

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Sports Guy

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Just now, Pickles said:

Snell was extremely mediocre from 2019-2022.  Either you don't understand what I'm saying, or you don't know Snell's career.

 

Taking out 2020 (ie not a full season), Snell averaged a 2.8 fWAR.  In that time frame, the WORST K rate he had was 11.3. The worst FIP he had was 3.8 and he had 2 other years where the FIP was under 3.35.

His 2021 ERA+ was only 92, but it was 103, 127 and 112 the other 3 years.

His swingstr% was great and he had a lot of great statcast numbers for those years.

So, calling him mediocre is both foolish and factually wrong unless being above average or better is your definition of mediocre.

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RZNJ Hangout Grand Counsel

RZNJ

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6 minutes ago, Pickles said:

He pitched 11 innings in the second half last year.  It's a fair question.

Fair question.  Those 11 innings came at the end of the season.  I’m assuming he’s healthy heading into 2024.  I’m sure the O’s would perform due diligence.  No guarantees in baseball.

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