Chourio to get 8/80..Os should do the same for Holliday

[Sports Guy]

I’m going to go off the assumption that Holliday doesn’t accrue a full year of service time in 2024.

That means you have him through 2030. In that time period, unless he’s a super 2 guy, he will make something in the area of 50-60 million, assuming things go as planned (big assumption but it’s one he will make)
 

Holliday will be turning 27 after the 2030 season ends. If you give him a 9’year deal, he becomes a FA at age 29, which still aligns him for a mega contract.

If he signs an 9/ 110-130 deal, he may be giving up some money but only in a perfect, everything goes right, scenario. This way, he can sign the deal and be guaranteed that money no matter what.

I just find it very hard to believe that he would turn that down.

 

[Moose Milligan]

21 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t buy this at all.

Good.  

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We just need to accept the fact that Elias doesn’t have some win cheap agenda. He just wants to succeed at his job given the resources available. 

This is all on JA.

I’m sure the reason we got Flaherty over Montgomery at the deadline was because Montgomery cost the pro rated portion of $10 million and Flaherty cost the pro rated portion of $5.4 million. 

No more analysis needed. We had the best record in the AL. JA wasn’t even willing to spend the extra 1-2 million extra then. 

Not disagreeing with the overall sentiment but Elias probably could have offered better prospects in return for lowering the monetary cost of Montgomery.

[btdart20]

35 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Dad's career earnings were 158,917,101.  I say we offer 10/158,917,102. 

Mental anchors are a powerful thing.

[Too Tall]

An analysis of these kind of deals to date - the player - the agent - to get a feel for the cross section of players/agents that are agreeing to early buy-ins. Seems I remember some discussion in that vein earlier?  Can data analysis forecast the player who would more likely take guaranteed earnings to those apt to bet on themselves? Teams analyze everything now. And, that doesn't even get to should the team take the risk. 

Never-the-less, I see Holliday, with his agent and family, betting on himself. May be me, but I don't see these kind of deals as a template for everyone.

[Moose Milligan]

22 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Totally disagree. This is all on Angelos. Could always trade these guys if the next big thing is in the pipeline. We're not talking about cost-prohibitive deals on the market. We're talking about deals that are only achievable because the CBA keeps the price of these guys down for ~7 years.

Of course.  Angelos is always the villain.

So you don't think that Elias believes in himself enough to be able to replace talent?

[Just Regular]

Google machine says Chourio's signing bonus was $1.8mm, so not quite Acuna but he is kind of like Basallo or Felix in the low single digits of lifetime earnings from baseball.

Assuming he isn't holding a multi-million dollar signing bonus this hour, etc.

[sportsfan8703]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Not disagreeing with the overall sentiment but Elias probably could have offered better prospects in return for lowering the monetary cost of Montgomery.

Yeah of course. He could’ve offered the comp pick. Just like DD was forced to.

Heck, looking back on it… I bet Elias regrets not offering the comp pick to buy down Montgomery’s salary instead of settling on Flaherty. 

[sportsfan8703]

How can Holliday accept a deal that’s never offered?  That’s Angelos. Not Elias. 

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Of course.  Angelos is always the villain.

So you don't think that Elias believes in himself enough to be able to replace talent?

This is just foolish. 
 

We aren’t talking about replacing talent. We are talking about replacing MVP level elite talent.

For you to think so little of Elias (ie, think he is that arrogant) that he believes he can just get MVP level talents on a whim is absurd.

[sportsfan8703]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

This is just foolish. 
 

We aren’t talking about replacing talent. We are talking about replacing MVP level elite talent.

For you to think so little of Elias (ie, think he is that arrogant) that he believes he can just get MVP level talents on a whim is absurd.

Yup. It’s just an easy choice for JA.

Option A - letting things play out with Holliday and paying him the minimum that he has to each year.

Option B - Giving him $80 million from his pocket. 

[sportsfan8703]

When Holliday it’s Free Agency all the others will mostly be gone too. Then John Angelos will hold the city hostage for a new stadium in order to compete. Wash, rinse, repeat. MLB owner handbook 101. 

[Frobby]

58 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/brewers-expected-to-extend-jackson-chourio.html

It will likely cost more to get Holliday done.

8-9 years for 100-110 for Holliday gets it done imo. No way he turns that down imo.

 

This is going to be a little too much of a generalization, but I think Latino players are often more amenable to team-friendly early extensions than their American-born counterparts.   Chourio may well be the first guy in his family to not have to scrape out a living, and this sets him up for life and if he chooses he can support a lot of other people with that kind of cash.  Holliday on the other hand comes from a super-wealthy family and earned $7.7 mm before he ever played a game of pro ball.  (Note: Chourio did receive a very healthy $1.8 mm signing bonus, so it’s not like he’s hurting for cash in the short term.)

As to what it would take to sign Holliday, I have no idea.   Boras is his agent, and we know Boras doesn’t like early extensions.  Sure, he’ll do what his client tells him to do, but the client is looking to him for advice as well.   And in Holliday’s case, he can afford to “bet on himself” because he’s rich even in the worst case scenario.   

Now, would I do this deal if I was the Orioles?  Well, it’s doubtful Holliday would earn move than ($5mm/$12mm/$20 mm) in his Arb years even in the scenario where he’s a perennial all star.  Call it $40 mm through the Arb years.   So you’re talking  $60-70 mm for 2-3 years after Arb.  I’d like 3/$70 mm at lot more than 2/$60 mm for the FA years.  But overall, I think it’s too generous and risky.   Really, the only way it pans out is if Holliday is about a Seager-level player.   If he’s, say, Dansby Swanson, it’s a losing proposition, and if he’s Ahmed Rosario it’s a disaster (Rosario has been a 10 WAR player through his Arb years, so not bad at all, just not a guy who makes this kind of money).

 

[sportsfan8703]

You guys just have unreasonable demands. If only, the city would just give him all that land to develop around the stadium then he could trickle down that money to the team and back to the city. Geez. What don’t you people understand?  Our outrageous demands are holding back the next Rockefeller or Vanderbilt. 

[Just Regular]

The juicy part of this is for Milwaukee is this a springboard to keeping a competitive posture with their Burnes-Adames walk year guys in a winnable division, or is this dotting I's and crossing T's before the current Good Team is dismantled?

In human terms, I wonder if Jackson Chourio and Christian Yelich know each other much yet.

Certainly like James McCann, Christian Yelich is a "buy-side contract" opportunity for some Club if MIL chooses to sell present Wins.