Pre winter meeting reliever notes

[MarCakes21]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Zippy chance he signs a 1-2 year for 8M.

MLB trade rumors predicts 2/$15.  I'd take that, maybe even a little more.  That's where my prediction came from.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, MarCakes21 said:

MLB trade rumors predicts 2/$15.  I'd take that, maybe even a little more.  That's where my prediction came from.

It would be shocking if, in this market, he signs for a lesser deal than he got 3 years ago while also coming off a career best year.

I mean, someone always slips through the cracks, so you never know but that would be really surprising.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 hours ago, waroriole said:

Holy cow dude. Do you have to mention Quintana in every post you make?

This is the Dylan Cease talk forum right now. Get with the program.

[HakunaSakata]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I could see Kimbrel being lured here on a 1-2 year deal if he wants to rack up some saves. Right now he’s only 20 saves from #3 all time. He got knocked around in Philly during the playoffs. So he might be out there.  

Just what we need. A player who's number one priority is his own personal accomplishments. And Kimbrel got knocked around more than just in hte playoffs. He had a 8.00 ERA in May (when he lost the closer's job to Jose Alvarado) and 5.73 ERA in August. He's nowhere near the same pitcher he used to be at this point in his career and I suspect the only reason people keep suggesting him is because of his name value. 

[orioles119]

32 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

This is the Dylan Cease talk forum right now. Get with the program.

Casey Kotchman and Mark Teixiera have entered the chat.

[interloper]

8 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Just what we need. A player who's number one priority is his own personal accomplishments. And Kimbrel got knocked around more than just in hte playoffs. He had a 8.00 ERA in May (when he lost the closer's job to Jose Alvarado) and 5.73 ERA in August. He's nowhere near the same pitcher he used to be at this point in his career and I suspect the only reason people keep suggesting him is because of his name value. 

Yeah I will be disappointed if we get Kimbrel. That feels like desperation. I'd rather get an under-the-radar type and just trust our pitchers. Or trade for someone super legit. 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Just what we need. A player who's number one priority is his own personal accomplishments. And Kimbrel got knocked around more than just in hte playoffs. He had a 8.00 ERA in May (when he lost the closer's job to Jose Alvarado) and 5.73 ERA in August. He's nowhere near the same pitcher he used to be at this point in his career and I suspect the only reason people keep suggesting him is because of his name value. 

There are countless guys who looked done or who struggled in a year and then turned it around…especially relievers with age on them.

Robertson was basically out of baseball a few years ago. 

Kimbrel is still getting a lot of Ks..the K/Bb ratio is very good. He is missing a ton of bats. Statcast data in 2023 was mixed but definitely not awful.

Hes probably not as good as he used to be but I would still bet on 1-2 more years of a sub 3 ERA from him and other good peripheral stats.

He doesn’t throw 98 like he used to but he’s still bringing it at about 96, which still Puts him in the 80th percentile.

Last year, he was really hurt by the homer, and he pitched in the 4th easiest park to give up a homer. His Hr rate last year was outside his career norm and unlike almost every year of his career.  
 

If that normalizes and everything else is similar, he will be just fine next year.

BTw, in that month of May, he gave up 6 runs in his first 2 outings in May. He gave up 2 runs the rest of the month.  August was similar..5 runs in outings and 2 runs the rest of the month.

Basically, he had an ERA of 2.40 in 67.2 IP and an ERA of 48.5 in 1.1 IP.

As usual, a lot of that type of thing is greatly skewed by small sample sizes.

 

 

[HakunaSakata]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

As usual, a lot of that type of thing is greatly skewed by small sample sizes.

So we're just going to ignore the fact that Kimbrel is 35 years old and was bad in 2022 and terrible in 2019/2021? That seems like a pretty big sample size of recent awfulness to me. Couple that with his age and the fact that his K% has been down the past two season and I'd say that he has more red flags than China. 

[Safelykept]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Hader does make a lot of sense for the team but I tend to agree that he'll probably price himself out of Baltimore. The only way it happens is if the old heart strings are pulled a bit and he wants to pitch in front of friends and family.

I wonder how many years he's looking for. He'll be 30 next year. I'd love to sign him to a 2 or 3 year deal since you don't really know how Bautista will come back from TJ.

I would not go more than 3 years to sign him though. 

Forget Hader that wont happen

[HakunaSakata]

22 minutes ago, interloper said:

Yeah I will be disappointed if we get Kimbrel. That feels like desperation. I'd rather get an under-the-radar type and just trust our pitchers. Or trade for someone super legit. 

100%. 

[Safelykept]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

I will fully admit that I don't want Kimbrel because I don't want to watch his cringey arm dangle thing all year. Lol. 

You have nothing to worry about

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

Forget Hader that wont happen

I agree that it's a longshot. Mostly because this team/ownership has shown no intention of signing that kind if talent due to the years and money it takes. Relievers can be volatile, but Hader has that special kind of talent that only an injury can derail.

Imagine a Bautista/Hader backend of the bullpen in 2025 and 2026? 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

So we're just going to ignore the fact that Kimbrel is 35 years old and was bad in 2022 and terrible in 2019/2021? That seems like a pretty big sample size of recent awfulness to me. Couple that with his age and the fact that his K% has been down the past two season and I'd say that he has more red flags than China. 

He pitched in 23 games in 2019. He didn’t appear in his first game until late June. In his second and third outings of the season, he gave up 5 runs in 1.2 IP. he then pitched to a 2.3 ERA in his next 17 outings heading into Sept. he got hurt again and ended the month with 2 outings where he got scored upon right after coming back from injury.  So injury and SSS hurt him.

In 2021, he was traded at the deadline to the WS. He came from the Cubs, where he had a .49 ERA in 36 innings..giving up only 1 ER all year up until that point. He went to the WS and threw 23 innings.

He gave up 6 runs in 1.2 IP. He gave up 7 runs in the other 21.1, which is a sub 3 ERA.

So yea, saying he was terrible in those years is factually wrong. He was terrible for a few outings and if you want to say you are worried about him because of the big inning, that’s kind of fair but outside of that, I don’t see much merit for your complaints other than age and relievers really aren’t judged on age. 

[Safelykept]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

Yeah this is why I really would rather not with Kimbrel. He's gonna have miles of rope. I just want a decent back-end reliever to share closing duties with Cano/Perez/Wells/whoever is hot. Honestly, I think Hicks fits that profile, but the contract he's going to get would put pressure on Hyde to make him the defacto closer initially, so that's annoying. 

Dont forget Hall

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

40 minutes ago, orioles119 said:

Casey Kotchman and Mark Teixiera have entered the chat.

I was only a lurker then, but nothing has topped the buzz around Mark Teixiera on OH when he hit free agency.