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Fangraphs Projected 2024 Record…..O’s 11th


Roll Tide

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😂😂😂😂 Fangraphs is a joke!

Were behind the Yankees (1st in Division) .548    Overall #4

                                 Rays.                                     .535                  #5              

                                 Jays                                       .533                  #6

                                ORIOLES                               .516                  #11
                                Red Sox                                 .512                  #12

                      

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

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  • Roll Tide changed the title to Fangraphs Projected 2024 Record…..O’s 11th

Fangraphs are a bunch of dildos.  The more and more they pontificate and make predictions, the more hard it is to take them seriously.  Credit to them for having their own WAR stat that some people like but other than that, they can kick rocks.  Their writers are mostly terrible.

8 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

I think it's quite possible that the Orioles could take a fairly significant step back next season.  A lot if things fell into place and the team has not been upgraded at all.

That being said, the offseason is not over yet.

In regards to this, a lot of things went well for the Orioles last year, also a lot of things didn't.  Nothing ever goes smoothly for a team no matter how good they are, no matter how many wins they pick up along the way.  It's easy to look back on the 2023 season, see that the Orioles won 101 games and remember overall how fun it was...and it was fun.

But for every O'Hearn that came out of nowhere, there was a Givens that was a total dud.  Henderson started out Ice cold, so did Rodriguez and he got sent down.  Losing Bautista.  Mountcastle (say what you want about him, and I've said plenty) being completely awful and then having to go on the IL with vertigo of all things.  I'm sure there's other things, but that's what springs to mind off the top of my head.

I don't see this team taking a significant step back into the 85 win range or whatever, I think they should be at 90+ wins and another playoff spot.  I think it's hilarious they're picking the Yankees to be that good.

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There are some objective data behind their assessment. Here is their assessment of likely WAR given " projected playing time, NOT the current status of a team's roster." If you go to the link below you can see their individual WAR predictions. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=2

Team        Position Player WAR    Pitching WAR   Total WAR

Braves 34.0 19.4 53.4
Dodgers 30.6 20.0 50.6
Astros 31.1 16.3 47.3
Yankees 32.5 14.7 47.2
Blue Jays 27.0 16.3 43.3
Rays 28.0 15.0 43.0
Phillies 21.9 20.8 42.7
Cardinals 26.0 15.9 41.9
Twins 24.2 17.5 41.7
Orioles 27.2 12.7 39.9
Mariners 23.1 16.3 39.4
Rangers 26.4 12.9 39.3
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12 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

I feel like the Rays could fall off a cliff in 2024 and finish 4th or 5th in the AL East.

Wander Franco (5.5 WAR in 2023) is gone.

Tyler Glasnow (3.53 ERA in 2023) is gone.

Shane McClanahan to miss all of 2024 with surgery.

That's like 10-12 WAR gone. 

It's the Rays, though. They'll probably find 8 WAR on the scrapheap/internal promotions

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I wouldn’t get too caught up in this.   Eventually, Fangraphs does its projections based on a 50/50 blend of the Steamer and ZiPS projections for individual players.   Right now, they’re doing only Steamer because ZiPS hasn’t been rolled out for all the teams.  ZiPS likes the O’s more than Steamer does, so we probably will move up when Fangraphs updates their projections with ZiPS added.   

Anyway, none of these projection systems are really worth much.  
 

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50 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

There are some objective data behind their assessment. Here is their assessment of likely WAR given " projected playing time, NOT the current status of a team's roster." If you go to the link below you can see their individual WAR predictions. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=2

Team        Position Player WAR    Pitching WAR   Total WAR

Braves 34.0 19.4 53.4
Dodgers 30.6 20.0 50.6
Astros 31.1 16.3 47.3
Yankees 32.5 14.7 47.2
Blue Jays 27.0 16.3 43.3
Rays 28.0 15.0 43.0
Phillies 21.9 20.8 42.7
Cardinals 26.0 15.9 41.9
Twins 24.2 17.5 41.7
Orioles 27.2 12.7 39.9
Mariners 23.1 16.3 39.4
Rangers 26.4 12.9 39.3

I believe we can get 9-12WAR out of Bradish, Rodriguez, and Kremer. Hard to tell the pitcher that are going to add or Means due to his health concerns. 

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44 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

I think it's quite possible that the Orioles could take a fairly significant step back next season.  A lot if things fell into place and the team has not been upgraded at all.

That being said, the offseason is not over yet.

Definitely feels like 2023 was an "everything went right" kind of season. Im not expecting Bradish to repeat his amazing season for one. That was probably a career year. Grod, Means and Kremer on the other hand could all show improvement.

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