Which Pitcher Are You Most Willing To Give Up In A Trade

[Moose Milligan]

Are we still holding TJ surgery against pitchers?  Other than the fact that it's an inconvenience that they're out for 12-16 months.  When was the last time a pitcher didn't come back from TJ surgery?  And if you can find one, are they the exception?

[Aristotelian]

I went with Baumeister with zero confidence. Preference would be to trade from our stock of position players but I would be open to trading any on the list depending on return. 

[ChosenOne21]

I'm honestly not a fan of Povich, McDermott or Johnson. Johnson is almost certainly a reliever, I'm not sure Povich will be consistent enough to have success as an MLB starter, and McDermott seems to be back of the rotation at best.

I'd rather keep DeLeon and Baumeister because they at least have a chance to be more than that.

Edited January 17 by ChosenOne21

[Sports Guy]

23 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Are we still holding TJ surgery against pitchers?  Other than the fact that it's an inconvenience that they're out for 12-16 months.  When was the last time a pitcher didn't come back from TJ surgery?  And if you can find one, are they the exception?

I don’t think it’s the surgery itself..it’s the time lost, lack of innings and age. 
 

Let’s just say everything goes well for him going forward. Let’s assume, for a moment, that he reaches his ceiling and is a good starting pitcher moving forward. He is probably 3 seasons away from being “let go”..ie, he can just go Out and throw as many innings as possible.  
 

So, in your best case, he is 28 years old before really living up to his full potential. Now, if you knew for sure that he would get there, you would be happy with that. 
 

However, that’s the best case. A lot of things have to go right for that to happen.

That is what the TJ surgery did. It just made us harder to rely on him long term. He was a great get in the Mancini trade. It is just a tough road back considering how little experience he had before the surgery occurred.

Edited January 17 by Sports Guy

[Orioles0615]

I would trade any of them because they don't seem like anything special. 

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t think it’s the surgery itself..it’s the time lost, lack of innings and age. 
 

Chances are, let’s just say everything goes well for him going forward. Let’s assume, for a moment, that he reaches his ceiling and is a good starting pitcher moving forward. He is probably 3 seasons away from being “let go”..ie, he can just go Out and throw as many innings as possible.  
 

So, in your best case, he is 28 years old before really living up to his full potential. Now, if you knew for sure that he would get there, you would be happy with that. 
 

However, that’s the best case. A lot of things have to go right for that to happen.

That is what the TJ surgery did. It just made us harder to rely on him long term. He was a great get in the Mancini trade. It is just a tough road back considering how little experience he had before the surgery occurred.

That's fair and I understand your points.  I also don't really disagree with any of it.

And while I was talking about him, I was talking in general, too.  

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Orioles0615 said:

I would trade any of them because they don't seem like anything special. 

That's not fair, I think De Leon has a chance to be really good.  

[CaptainRedbeard]

16 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

That's fair and I understand your points.  I also don't really disagree with any of it.

And while I was talking about him, I was talking in general, too.  

Will also add that with Johnson specifically, needing to be added to the 40 man roster hurt his value for a team like the Rays, and even for the Orioles it puts them in a tight spot where they need to decide when to fast track him in a relief role so it perhaps cuts against their starting potential.

I also think TJS gets more held against guys like Johnson who already had “relief risk” attached to their profile because of their size and/or delivery.

But for a pitcher who has size and a clean delivery and no other troubling history of injuries, I don’t think TJS dings them too much. For instance, I think Andrew Painter is still rated very highly. 

[interloper]

This organization lacks impact right-handed options for the bullpen. In a year without Felix, I'm not giving up someone like Johnson with his power stuff, especially not before our pitching dev guys get a full year with him. He could still be a stud starter in 2025, who knows. 

 

[Orioles0615]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

That's not fair, I think De Leon has a chance to be really good.  

It's just they all seem to walk so many guys. Its like all they preach is speed and don't worry about control 

[SemperFi]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Are we still holding TJ surgery against pitchers?  Other than the fact that it's an inconvenience that they're out for 12-16 months.  When was the last time a pitcher didn't come back from TJ surgery?  And if you can find one, are they the exception?

One third of all MLB starters last year have had TJ surgery and it's highly concentrated in those who throw hard, for most it's simply a question of when.

[yark14]

Can I write-in Keegan Akin?

[NCRaven]

6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Seth Johnson does next to nothing to move the needle on any trade right now. He would be the last piece of a trade..a throw in type guy.

Interesting take when Elias sought him in a trade when we knew in advance that he'd have to sit out a year to rehab.  Yet now that he is ready to pitch again he'd only be the last piece in a trade?

[Sports Guy]

20 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Interesting take when Elias sought him in a trade when we knew in advance that he'd have to sit out a year to rehab.  Yet now that he is ready to pitch again he'd only be the last piece in a trade?

And all he has done since he got here is get older.

Elias sought him out because he decided to take a big swing for a guy who didn’t have a lot of value. It was a great decision but this is a little different. If we trade for a guy, we are looking for a difference maker. For a real talent like that, Johnson has little to no value right now.