Lazardo is my choice

[EERinthe804]

I’ve finally decided…I want Jesus Lazardo from Marlins.  I think he’s a better pitcher than Cease.

I’d give up Santander, Mateo (they need a SS), Ortiz, and Cowser.  Lazardo is under control for 3 years and he’ll likely get via arbitration  $5.5m/yr which will increase slightly per year.

Now, what if the Os also did something crazy on top of that? It could only happen if Cody Bellinger doesn’t get the long term deal he’s looking for.  Sign Bellinger for 2 years at $50m total deal. He’s a plus OF that can play all 3 positions + 1B.  He takes Santander’s spot in the lineup and he looks fully healthy now after that nasty shoulder injury a few years ago.  I love Santander but this is an upgrade over him at a reasonable cost.  $25m vs $11.5m in 2024….only paying $14m more. Santander will be a FA after 2024 anyway.

So the Os would get a #2-3 SP and an upgrade in OF for relatively cheap. 

Am I nuts?

 

[Moose Milligan]

2 hours ago, EERinthe804 said:

I’ve finally decided…I want Jesus Lazardo from Marlins.  I think he’s a better pitcher than Cease.

I’d give up Santander, Mateo (they need a SS), Ortiz, and Cowser.  Lazardo is under control for 3 years and he’ll likely get via arbitration  $5.5m/yr which will increase slightly per year.

Now, what if the Os also did something crazy on top of that? It could only happen if Cody Bellinger doesn’t get the long term deal he’s looking for.  Sign Bellinger for 2 years at $50m total deal. He’s a plus OF that can play all 3 positions + 1B.  He takes Santander’s spot in the lineup and he looks fully healthy now after that nasty shoulder injury a few years ago.  I love Santander but this is an upgrade over him at a reasonable cost.  $25m vs $11.5m in 2024….only paying $14m more. Santander will be a FA after 2024 anyway.

So the Os would get a #2-3 SP and an upgrade in OF for relatively cheap. 

Am I nuts?

 

You’re nuts to think they’d give anyone 25 million per year no matter how short the contract. 

You’re not nuts to think that Luzardo is better.  

[ChuckS]

4 hours ago, EERinthe804 said:

I’ve finally decided…I want Jesus Lazardo from Marlins.  I think he’s a better pitcher than Cease.

I’d give up Santander, Mateo (they need a SS), Ortiz, and Cowser.  Lazardo is under control for 3 years and he’ll likely get via arbitration  $5.5m/yr which will increase slightly per year.

Now, what if the Os also did something crazy on top of that? It could only happen if Cody Bellinger doesn’t get the long term deal he’s looking for.  Sign Bellinger for 2 years at $50m total deal. He’s a plus OF that can play all 3 positions + 1B.  He takes Santander’s spot in the lineup and he looks fully healthy now after that nasty shoulder injury a few years ago.  I love Santander but this is an upgrade over him at a reasonable cost.  $25m vs $11.5m in 2024….only paying $14m more. Santander will be a FA after 2024 anyway.

So the Os would get a #2-3 SP and an upgrade in OF for relatively cheap. 

Am I nuts?

 

 I would like this trade if we removed Cowser.  The Marlins are trying to win now and Anthony Santander is not just a throw-in. He has arguably been our best offensive player over the last few seasons. So including him should negate the need to also include both Ortiz and Cowser. The Marlins would likely want someone better than Mateo. Maybe Norby? 

Edited January 19 by ChuckS

[ChosenOne21]

5 hours ago, EERinthe804 said:

I’ve finally decided…I want Jesus Lazardo from Marlins.  I think he’s a better pitcher than Cease.

I’d give up Santander, Mateo (they need a SS), Ortiz, and Cowser.  Lazardo is under control for 3 years and he’ll likely get via arbitration  $5.5m/yr which will increase slightly per year.

Now, what if the Os also did something crazy on top of that? It could only happen if Cody Bellinger doesn’t get the long term deal he’s looking for.  Sign Bellinger for 2 years at $50m total deal. He’s a plus OF that can play all 3 positions + 1B.  He takes Santander’s spot in the lineup and he looks fully healthy now after that nasty shoulder injury a few years ago.  I love Santander but this is an upgrade over him at a reasonable cost.  $25m vs $11.5m in 2024….only paying $14m more. Santander will be a FA after 2024 anyway.

So the Os would get a #2-3 SP and an upgrade in OF for relatively cheap. 

Am I nuts?

 

I think that package is pretty light for Lazardo. The Marlins would demand Mayo or Basallo and be right to do so.

I think you're looking at something like Mayo + Ortiz + Povich/Santander + an interesting low minors guy or two for Lazardo.

Edited January 19 by ChosenOne21

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

You’re nuts to think they’d give anyone 25 million per year no matter how short the contract. 

You’re not nuts to think that Luzardo is better.  

Is he really nuts?

Luzardo Age 26 2024 WAR 4.1 ERA 3.58 FIP 3.55  inn/K 178/208 BB/9 2.8

Cease AGE 28      2024  WAR 2.4 ERA 4.58 FIP 3.72 Inn/K 177/214 BB/9 4.0

If you think Cease is the guy he was 2 years ago perhaps he’s better. If you look at IP Luzardo’s IP before this year were 100 or less. 
 

But, if you are comparing 2023 performance Luzardo is clearly better. Not like it’s a huge difference but to say thinking these guys are close based on 2023 is nuts.

You could certainly argue WAR …. 11.8 to 6.1

But, you have an extra year of control. So you’ll probably get 3-6 WAR from Cease in 2024 and 9-12 WAR from Luzardo over 3 seasons.

Im betting he can be had for less than the unreasonable price that Getz has pinned to Cease.

[Roll Tide]

Just now, ChosenOne21 said:

I think that package is pretty light for Lazardo. The Marlins would demand Mayo or Basallo and be right to do so.

I think you're looking at something like Mayo + Ortiz + Povich + an interesting low minors guy or two for Lazardo.

He’s basically saying Cowser, Ortiz, and some veterans. So his package and yours really aren’t much different. If they prefer veterans and plan to compete they may view Santander as more valuable than the 3rd or 4th player in a prospect deal. I’m not sure they’d need or want Mateo. So there’s that, Also Santander would likely be very popular in Miami and can likely be extended for a reasonable contract. 

[ChosenOne21]

16 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

He’s basically saying Cowser, Ortiz, and some veterans. So his package and yours really aren’t much different. If they prefer veterans and plan to compete they may view Santander as more valuable than the 3rd or 4th player in a prospect deal. I’m not sure they’d need or want Mateo. So there’s that, Also Santander would likely be very popular in Miami and can likely be extended for a reasonable contract. 

Mateo has basically no trade value. I'd send him if they wanted him, but that's not going to save us putting Povich in the deal, or whoever.

I'd buy the plane tickets myself if they'd take Cowser + Ortiz + Mateo + Santander, but no matter how much the Marlins prefer veterans, that's not going to happen. I sort of doubt there's a package of "veterans" the Marlins would take that we'd be willing to give. We don't really have "veterans."

Maybe something like Westburg + Mountcastle + Santander + Mateo + Ortiz gets you there or pretty close, but that's trading them an entire infield, and I don't know that they want that. Santander might need to be replaced with Hays in that deal.

Edited January 19 by ChosenOne21

[wildbillhiccup]

2 hours ago, ChuckS said:

 I would like this trade if we removed Cowser.  The Marlins are trying to win now and Anthony Santander is not just a throw-in. He has arguably been our best offensive player over the last few seasons. So including him should negate the need to also include both Ortiz and Cowser. The Marlins would likely want someone better than Mateo. Maybe Norby? 

Of course you would, because it would be even more ridiculously lopsided (in our favor) than the original trade that was suggested. Any trade for Luzardo would have to include Mayo or Basallo as the headliner.

And yes Santander has very little trade value despite what you think. He's a mediocre\poor defender, who's older, only under contract for one more season, and not even really a bargain at his current price. He's also a poor OBP guy and really only excels in the HR department. It's not the 90's anymore when "chicks dug the long ball". No one is going to put a lot of value in that type of player profile in the current era of baseball.

[wildbillhiccup]

7 hours ago, EERinthe804 said:

I’ve finally decided…I want Jesus Lazardo from Marlins.  I think he’s a better pitcher than Cease.

I’d give up Santander, Mateo (they need a SS), Ortiz, and Cowser.  Lazardo is under control for 3 years and he’ll likely get via arbitration  $5.5m/yr which will increase slightly per year.

Now, what if the Os also did something crazy on top of that? It could only happen if Cody Bellinger doesn’t get the long term deal he’s looking for.  Sign Bellinger for 2 years at $50m total deal. He’s a plus OF that can play all 3 positions + 1B.  He takes Santander’s spot in the lineup and he looks fully healthy now after that nasty shoulder injury a few years ago.  I love Santander but this is an upgrade over him at a reasonable cost.  $25m vs $11.5m in 2024….only paying $14m more. Santander will be a FA after 2024 anyway.

So the Os would get a #2-3 SP and an upgrade in OF for relatively cheap. 

Am I nuts?

 

You're not nuts in wanting Luzardo, but you are nuts in thinking that this trade package is enough to land him. Luzardo is a younger more controllable pitcher than Cease and I don't see any trade scenario (for him) where we wouldn't have to give up Mayo or Basallo. Mateo has zero to no trade value and Santander has very little trade value  because of his age, poor/mediocre defense, and the fact that he's a FA after this season. I also don't see this team trading a veteran and then signing another veteran. If they trade  a Santander, Mountcastle or Hays type it should be to free up playing time for one of their younger players. Even if they did there's nothing in Bellinger's underlying stats that suggest most of what he did last season is sustainable. 

[wildbillhiccup]

1 hour ago, ChosenOne21 said:

I think that package is pretty light for Lazardo. The Marlins would demand Mayo or Basallo and be right to do so.

I think you're looking at something like Mayo + Ortiz + Povich/Santander + an interesting low minors guy or two for Lazardo.

100%. Basically what we're thinking the White Sox are asking for Cease is what we would realistically have to pay for Luzardo. 

[Warehouse]

46 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

And yes Santander has very little trade value despite what you think. He's a mediocre\poor defender, who's older, only under contract for one more season, and not even really a bargain at his current price. He's also a poor OBP guy and really only excels in the HR department. It's not the 90's anymore when "chicks dug the long ball". No one is going to put a lot of value in that type of player profile in the current era of baseball.

I don’t think Santander is a premium trade chip by any means, but he does have surplus value.  

Teoscar Hernandez just signed a 1 year deal for ~$20 million PV.  Hernandez was good for 1.8 fWAR in 2023 and Steamer projects him for 1.9 in 2024.  Santander was good for 2.6 fWAR in 2023 and is projected for 2.1 in 2024.

Santander is more mediocre than poor in right field and has shown that he can also effectively play first base.  He provides flexibility as a switch hitter strong from both sides of the plate.  He is a top notch clubhouse presence and brings 30+ home run potential. He’s two years younger than Hernandez.

[Moose Milligan]

3 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Is he really nuts?

Luzardo Age 26 2024 WAR 4.1 ERA 3.58 FIP 3.55  inn/K 178/208 BB/9 2.8

Cease AGE 28      2024  WAR 2.4 ERA 4.58 FIP 3.72 Inn/K 177/214 BB/9 4.0

If you think Cease is the guy he was 2 years ago perhaps he’s better. If you look at IP Luzardo’s IP before this year were 100 or less. 
 

But, if you are comparing 2023 performance Luzardo is clearly better. Not like it’s a huge difference but to say thinking these guys are close based on 2023 is nuts.

You could certainly argue WAR …. 11.8 to 6.1

But, you have an extra year of control. So you’ll probably get 3-6 WAR from Cease in 2024 and 9-12 WAR from Luzardo over 3 seasons.

Im betting he can be had for less than the unreasonable price that Getz has pinned to Cease.

Yep.

[Sports Guy]

Whether you are in the camp of Luzardo or Cease, you are really banking on a one year sample.

Luzardo hasn’t shown an ability to be durable and eat innings prior to 2023 and Cease has been an underachieving durable pitcher that has had one great year.

 

[coe76]

Kind of amused at the packages that some posters feel would be needed to get Cease or Luzardo.  While it seems like the WS and Marlins GMs are holding out for quite honestly ridiculous packages, there should be no reason for the O’s to give in.  Luzardo and Cease are very good pitchers but they are not a reincarnation of Nolan Ryan or Sandy Koufax.  There may be a reasonable package that the O’s can offer but  to strip out most of our top prospects is short sighted.  I am frustrated that Elias has not found us a top line pitcher but if the other GMs are really demanding what is rumored then no deal is the way to go.

[wildbillhiccup]

1 hour ago, Warehouse said:

I don’t think Santander is a premium trade chip by any means, but he does have surplus value.  

Teoscar Hernandez just signed a 1 year deal for ~$20 million PV.  Hernandez was good for 1.8 fWAR in 2023 and Steamer projects him for 1.9 in 2024.  Santander was good for 2.6 fWAR in 2023 and is projected for 2.1 in 2024.

Santander is more mediocre than poor in right field and has shown that he can also effectively play first base.  He provides flexibility as a switch hitter strong from both sides of the plate.  He is a top notch clubhouse presence and brings 30+ home run potential. He’s two years younger than Hernandez.

You make a good point with the Tesocar contract so I'll walk back what I said about Santander not being a good value this season. And while he may be a good clubhouse presence, I'm not sure how much stock a team is going to place in it when he's just a one year rental. And the one year rental part is the biggest sticking point for me in terms of acknowledging that he has any real trade value. I just don't think anyone is going to give up anything of consequence for him and for that reason I think we'd probably be better off just keeping him.